After a hot start where they looked like the best team in baseball, the Yankees have come crashing down to Earth, playing sub-.500 ball (18-21) since June 1. Along the way, several flaws have been exposed. Now, facing the deadline, they need help if they want to stop the skid. They could use another bullpen arm, and at least one (probably two) more bats, preferably ones who can play the infield. 

They’ve gotten precious little production from Anthony Rizzo, DJ LeMaheiu, and Giancarlo Stanton, all three of whom are in various stages of decline (which is a common problem with this organization); and Gleyber Torres is not hitting well, despite the fact that he’s in his prime at age 27, and in his walk year. Bullpen-wise, when two of your top relievers are guys like Tim Hill and Luke Weaver, you need help there too.

So they need to bolster their roster. The problem is, what do they have to trade? No team would take Rizzo, LeMahieu or Torres at this point. In most cases, rebuilding teams are looking for prospects who are outperforming their level and creating positive buzz. But in the Yankees’ case, almost all of their most desirable prospects are struggling, and their trade values have declined accordingly.

Let’s take a look, with an eye towards who’s trending up, down, or neutral.

 

High-value prospects

 

Spencer Jones: $32.5M

Trendline: Down

 

Jones was considered untouchable as recently as this past offseason, when the White Sox asked for him in a package for Dylan Cease. Since then, his stock has dropped a bit, mostly because a) his strikeout rate has ballooned to 37.1%; b) he’s repeating AA, but his surface numbers have declined from last year at the same level; c) he’s starting to appear old for the level – he’s now on track for an age-25 MLB debut. Teams may be wary of ultimately getting stuck with a Quad-A player.

 

Jasson Dominguez: $31.8M

Trendline: Down

 

The problem with Dominguez is obvious: despite his immense talent, he can’t stay healthy. He’s now suffering through a severe oblique injury, on top of recovering from TJS. He still looks like an impact player, but many teams have learned the hard way that it’s foolish to overpay for this type of risky profile, and the Yankees wouldn’t want to sell low anyway, so he’s likely unavailable.

Medium-value prospects

 

Roderick Arias: $13.3M

Trendline: Down

 

In his first year at A-ball, Arias is hitting .217, with a 96 WRC+ (4% below league average). You want to see prospects killing it, not struggling to survive, especially at this level.

 

George Lombard, Jr.: $11.1M

Trendline: Down

 

Lombard is faring only slightly better in A-ball, with a .231 average and a 107 WRC+. Again, nothing too exciting on paper, although scouts may still be high on him.

 

Chase Hampton: $9.7M

Trendline: Down

 

Hampton has been the Yankees’ top pitching prospect since they traded Drew Thorpe in the Juan Soto deal, but he’s been struggling with both elbow and shoulder injuries, and was shelled in his first start off a long layoff.

 

Brando Mayea: $8.9M

Trendline: Down

 

Mayea is hitting 4% below league average (96 WRC+) in the Complex League, which is a level below low-A. His slugging% is .305, with zero home runs. Not super encouraging.

 

Will Warren: $8.7M

Trendline: Down

 

Through 18 starts at AAA, Warren has a 6.70 ERA and a 5.22 FIP. Not to mention he’s a 25-year-old who is repeating the level.

 

Agustin Ramirez: $8M

Trendline: Neutral

 

The bad news: Ramirez is hitting .186 with an 82 WRC+ at AAA. The good news: He’s still young for the level, at age 22; also, he performed much better in his second stint at AA last year, so perhaps he’ll do the same at AAA next year at age 23. So let’s put this one in the neutral camp.

 

Everson Pereira: $6.8M

Trendline: Down

 

Pereira’s stock has dropped because a) he couldn’t hit MLB pitching when called up last year, putting up an ungodly 23 WRC+ over 103 PAs (slash line: .151/.233/.194), with zero power, which was supposed to be his carrying tool; b) he’s now repeating AAA, and his offensive numbers have declined from 2023 (WRC+ down from 132 to 118), again not what you want to see.

 

Henry Lalane: $5.7M

Trendline: Neutral

 

Lalane hasn’t pitched much this year, for undisclosed reasons, so this one isn’t necessarily a drop. Some team might see some clay to mold here.

Jared Serna: $5.6M

Trendline: Neutral

 

Serna is repeating High-A, and while his average has gone down (from .287 to .252), his slugging is up (from .389 to .441), along with his WRC+ (105 to 119). This is not a huge improvement overall, but it’s better than down for a 22-year-old, on track for an age-25 debut, most likely as a utility infielder.

 

Brock Selvidge: $4.8M

Trendline: Down

 

Selvidge’s K-BB% has declined with each level change, from 21.5% in Low-A, to 15.1% in High-A, to a concerning 11.6% in AA. His ERA, FIP, and xFIP have also gone the wrong direction as he’s climbed the ladder. That all suggests he’ll struggle if he eventually makes it to MLB at all.

 

There’s not much on the farm once you get below this level of value, except young fliers, but let’s throw in one more…

 

Oswald Peraza: $1.5M

Trendline: Down

 

After hitting for a 53 WRC+ at the MLB level in 2023, Peraza has struggled in the minors, hitting for a woeful 59 WRC+ in AAA this year across 198 PAs. He’s also out of options after this year, all of which points him to DFA territory soon.

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So there’s a mismatch between what they need and what they have to trade

 

The problem here is, the Yankees need to swing for the fences at the trade deadline, but they don’t have much trade capital to work with, the kinds of buzzy prospects other teams find attractive. Granted, the prospects they have still have value – but at the deadline, rebuilding teams are generally far more interested in the ones trending up than down. 

So if you exclude the decliners, the only options are neutral performers Ramirez at $8M, Lalane at $5.7M, and Serna at $5.6M. That’s $19.3M in trade capital, which is nowhere near what it would take to land, say, Garrett Crochet.

 

Could the Yankees take on money instead?

 

Another scenario is that, instead of using prospect capital, they use money. After all, they’re the Yankees, right? 

But according to Roster Resource, they’re running a payroll of $302M, well above the fourth luxury tax line of $297M. If anything, they’d want to get under that line, not go further over it. Now, you might think, hey, it’s just Hal Steinbrenner’s money, who cares? 

The problem is that being over that fourth luxury tax limit not only hurts the team financially, adding exorbitant penalties with each salary they take on, it also hurts the team by knocking them down several slots in the draft. Keep in mind they’re still paying salaries to guys like Aaron Hicks and Josh Donaldson – dead money weighing them down. So taking on even more significant money seems unwise and unrealistic.

 

What to do with their limited trade capital

 

So let’s assume that $19.3M in trade capital (Ramirez, Lalane and Serna) is what they have to work with, and they don’t want to add more salary. What does that get them?

Not a whole lot.

 

Realistic options they can afford (some of these require taking on a small amount of salary):

 

Hitters:

Josh Bell*, Brendan Rodgers, Taylor Ward, Gio Urshela 

 

Relievers: 

Carlos Estevez, Tanner Scott, Trevor Richards, Kyle Finnegan, Michael Kopech, John Brebbia, Austin Adams, Andrew Chafin, Dylan Floro, Lucas Erceg, Jalen Beeks, Scott Alexander, T.J. McFarland, Derek Law

 

*Assumes the Marlins eat his entire remaining salary (which they’ve said they’d do)

 

There’s not really a super-impact player there in the bunch. Granted, one could say that for this trade market as a whole. Jazz Chisholm, for example, is just out of reach, unless the Marlins would take a quantity-over-quality package; the Yankees never trade with the Rays unless it’s in a three-way, and those are hard, so Brandon Lowe and/or Yandy Diaz may not be realistic; and a pitcher like Mason Miller is way, way out of reach for a team with this type of prospect capital.

So it looks like the Yankees, given their constraints in both trade capital and budget, will have to make do shopping in the bargain aisle. Most likely, they’ll end up with a serviceable bat (like Ward or Urshela) and maybe two decent relievers (like Scott and Chafin). That’s not nothing. But it’s not likely to alter their season trajectory all that much.