Now that the 2025/26 offseason is essentially over, we’re checking our work to see how well our model correlated to the league – in two markets. First up was our self-check on our model’s performance in the trade market. Now it’s time to look at how we did in the free agent market.   The numbers Number of signings: 120 Average AAV delta between our model and the actual deal, in absolute value terms: 3.4 Percentage of signings that fell within our average...

Now that this winter’s offseason is more or less over, let’s review: How well did our model correlate to the trade market?   Results: Number of trades: 83 Number accepted by our model: 73 Acceptance rate: 88% Average value variance per deal: 3.3   So 88% is a touch under our model’s long-term track record of 93.2% acceptance (with a 2.2 variance), but it’s close. As always, we study the results to see if there are any areas where we can improve. That said,...

Welcome back to the Baseball Trade Values Podcast! In this episode, founder John Bitzer (@johnbitzer2) and Associate Editor Joshua Iversen (@jive_mlb) break down the BTV model's performance evaluating trades this offseason. Then, they discuss the Max Scherzer signing, Jurickson Profar's suspension, the Padres' offseason and more. Listen to the episode through your favorite podcast provider, or via the media player or download link below:     Download link:...

Welcome back to the Baseball Trade Values Podcast! In this episode, founder John Bitzer (@johnbitzer2) and Associate Editor Joshua Iversen (@jive_mlb) break down the Caleb Durbin and Jesus Sanchez trades. Then, they discuss a rush of free agent signings, including Zac Gallen, Justin Verlander, Chris Bassitt and much more. Listen to the episode through your favorite podcast provider, or via the media player or download link below:     Download link:...

Welcome back to the Baseball Trade Values Podcast! In this episode, founder John Bitzer (@johnbitzer2) and Associate Editor Joshua Iversen (@jive_mlb) break down the three-team deal that brought Brendan Donovan to the Seattle Mariners. Then, they discuss Framber Valdez signing with the Tigers, Tarik Skubal winning his arbitration case and much more. Listen to the episode through your favorite podcast provider, or via the media player or download link below:     Download link:...