There is a concept in the tech world, popularized by research and consulting firm Gartner, of the “Hype Cycle,” which is widely applicable, and can even be used as a lens through which you can follow your favorite baseball prospects.

The Gartner Hype Cycle describes the life of a new or emerging technology in five stages, outlining how expectations for that technology evolve from the time it is introduced to the time it becomes commonplace. Sean Morash, a contributor to Baseball Prospectus, once wrote an article exploring this concept and adapted the Hype Cycle curve to the following:

 

 

Here's how the curve works. When a prospect is first brought to our attention by the Coverage Trigger,  where they appear on a top prospect list, the natural fan reaction is to envision that prospect as their team’s next big star. This is the point where players reach the Peak of Inflated Expectations. If the player isn’t productive right away, the next reaction is often to label them as busts. 

This brings the player to the next stage of the curve, the Trough of Disillusionment (which, admittedly, sounds like one of those obstacles in The Princess Bride). Though many players never make it to the next stage, the ones who show signs of improvement after initial disappointment make it to the Slope of Enlightenment. Finally, if the improvement is sustained, these players reach the last stage, the Plateau of Productivity. 

Players who reach this point may never quite reach the levels they were destined for during their Peak of Inflated Expectations, but prove themselves to be perfectly viable MLB players. This article highlights a number of players, presented in pairs, who have traveled this curve – starting with high prospect billing, appearing to flame out, and resurfacing as players who have reached, or look poised to reach, their Plateau of Productivity.

 

JP Crawford & Orlando Arcia

 

Baseball America’s top 20 prospects of 2016 featured five shortstops. Current MLB stars Corey Seager, Trea Turner, and Dansby Swanson appeared at #1, #9, and #17 on the list. It may be hard to believe that there were two other shortstops ranked ahead of Turner, but it’s true. Those two shortstops, ranked in the #6 and #8 spots on the list, were JP Crawford and Orlando Arcia.

Crawford was the 16th overall pick in the 2013 draft and became the Phillies’ top prospect from 2015-2018. His low-minors results were sparkling, but forearm and hand injuries limited him at AAA. He made 72 appearances at the big league level between 2017 and 2018, but managed just a .214/.333./358  batting line across 225 plate appearances. His defense was also lacking, particularly in 2018 where he posted a -4 OAA in his 49 games. He was traded to Seattle in the December 2019 deal that sent Jean Segura to Philadelphia. Segura was a good player to be sure, and a worthy one to be traded for, but the deal seemed to signal a lack of confidence in Crawford as Philadelphia’s shortstop of the future. 

Touted as Milwaukee’s best prospect since Ryan Braun, Orlando Arcia was also expected to be his team’s shortstop of the future. He first debuted in 2016, but enjoyed his best season for the Brew Crew the following year, putting up a solid 2.1 fWAR in 2017. He remained in Milwaukee for 3 more seasons, finishing his Brewers career with just a .658 OPS and 2.0 fWAR accrued. You’ll notice Arcia’s total Brewers fWAR is lower than his 2017 total. This is because he posted a negative fWAR across his 4 other seasons in Milwaukee. In April 2021, just 4 games into the young season, he was traded to Atlanta for two pitchers, both of whom are now out of professional baseball. 

Crawford and Arcia have each found success in their new uniforms. Crawford posted 12.4 fWAR for the Mariners from 2019-2023, and in 2022 signed a $46.15 million contract to keep him in Seattle through 2026. Arcia accepted a trip to the minors upon his arrival in Atlanta, but spent the next two seasons as Atlanta’s utility man behind starter Dansby Swanson. 

Both Crawford and Arcia reached high points of their careers in 2023. Crawford posted a 134 wRC+ and 4.7 fWAR, receiving down-ballot MVP votes in the process. Arcia won the starting shortstop job away from top prospect Vaughn Grissom upon Swanson’s departure, posting a 105 wRC+ and 2.3 fWAR season in his new role, both career highs. His first half was particularly productive, earning him the opportunity to represent the National League as an All-Star starter. 

Neither player has been as productive in their 2024 season, but each has carved out a critical role on a playoff-contending team, proving that sometimes a change of scenery and a recalibration of expectations can be a helpful path to the Plateau of Productivity.

 

Brice Turang & Jarren Duran

 

The next two players never quite boasted the same prospect pedigree as the last pair, but their early careers serve as a demonstration that the Hype Curve can be applied to many different player archetypes. Brice Turang, for example, peaked at just 88th overall on Baseball America’s top prospect list in 2021. By 2022, however, he had fallen off the list entirely. He made a similar decline from his position as the Brewers top prospect in 2021 to just their 4th top prospect by 2023. 

He made his MLB debut last season, posting just a .218/.285/.300 batting line with a 60 wRC+ and -0.2 fWAR in 137 games. He was useful on the basepaths (stealing 26 bases in 30 attempts) and played solid defense at second base, but was generally underwhelming in his first MLB action. 

Similar to Turang, Jarren Duran’s prospect peak came with a more modest 91st ranking on Baseball America’s 2022 list. Also similar to Turang, his time on the list was brief. Duran made his big-league debut in 2021, and with 91 games played by the end of 2022, he had exceeded the eligibility threshold for inclusion in the 2023 edition. His performance likely didn’t warrant his continued inclusion anyway. In those 91 games at the major league level, he posted a .219/.269/.354 batting line, good for just a 67 wRC+. His -3 OAA in the outfield was another contributing factor in his -0.5 fWAR showing. His performance, paired with a small handful of incidents perceived to show lackluster effort, drew questions about his professionalism and led many fans in Boston to call for a trade.

In just a short time, both of these players have greatly improved their standing in the major leagues. Turang has improved his offensive performance in 2024, while continuing to play solid defense and, perhaps more impressively, has maintained his 94th percentile sprint speed despite gaining 20 pounds in the offseason. Turang has also cut down his K% significantly this season, allowing him to utilize his speed more often by putting the ball in play. 

Duran’s improvement started in 2023 and has only accelerated in 2024. He’s adjusted his approach to be more opposite-field oriented, with his Pull% descending from 35% in 2022 to 31% in 2024. His BB% and K% have each moved in the right direction and his outfield defense is now arguably among the best in the league with a 96th percentile OAA so far in 2024. He has accumulated over 6 fWAR and owns a wRC+ over 120 since 2023. His own blazing speed has him as the current league leader in triples. 

Turang and Duran each hit their Peak of Inflated Expectations only momentarily, but that is often all it takes for fans and executives to start dreaming of the possibilities. It’s easy to forget that players like these spend most of their ascent through the minors without these heightened expectations. Once covered by a major publication, though, the expectations rise, fairly or unfairly. These are two great examples of players who experienced all the highs and lows of the prospect journey in just a short timeframe. Their ability to endure that rollercoaster and come out ahead are commendable.

 

Hunter Greene & MacKenzie Gore

 

Drafting high school pitchers is risky business, but in 2017 the Reds and Padres rolled the dice on a pair of them with the 2nd and 3rd overall draft picks. 

After his 2nd overall selection, Hunter Greene debuted at #29 on the 2018 Baseball America Top 100 list. He soon demonstrated why drafting high school pitchers can be such a scary proposition, undergoing Tommy John surgery that forced him to miss the entire 2019 season. The combination of surgery and the 2020 pandemic meant Greene didn’t see game action for a full two years. He did not appear on the 2021 edition of the list and slipped to #5 in the Reds organization as a result. He struggled at AAA in 2021, but returned to the Top 100 entering 2022 at #35. His first two big league seasons produced 237.2 innings of 4.62 ERA baseball, with a pair of injuries keeping him from reaching full workloads in either season.

MacKenzie Gore’s early minor-league experience was a much smoother one than Greene’s. He debuted on the 2018 Baseball America Top 100 list at #26, and ascended all the way to #6 after posting a 2.56 ERA in 183.0 IP from 2017 until the lost minor league season of 2020. Disaster struck for Gore upon his return in 2021, where he credits losing feel for his delivery during the lost season as the reason for his 5.85 ERA in AAA. He was only allowed 6 starts at the level before his demotion to extended spring training, and by the time of his inclusion in the Juan Soto trade of 2022, he had fallen from the top pitching prospect in baseball to losing a spot in the Top 100 entirely. His first two seasons of major league action produced a 4.45 ERA in 206.1 innings of work, but his peripherals suggested that his results should have been even worse.

For Greene, coming out with a fastball that regularly broke radar guns was a significant contributor to his hype. What we came to find out, however, was that the fastball was in fact hittable, and that it produced loud contact when hit in part because of its extreme velocity. Not helping matters was his lack of a reliable third offering, allowing hitters to sit on the fastball and produce a 148 wRC+ on the pitch in his first two seasons. The addition of the splitter to his repertoire this season has been more than welcome, and has reignited hope that Greene can become the ace the Reds thought he could be when they selected him so highly in the draft. He has a 2.83 ERA in 2024 at the time of this writing, with strong peripherals, including a HR/FB% that is well under 10% for the first time in his career, despite a home park that is a haven for the long ball. 

For Gore, mechanics were always the primary concern, with his high leg kick and long stride making his delivery difficult to repeat. When he lost his delivery in 2020, his command went with it, leading to high walk rates and missed spots producing inflated home run numbers. He has made the necessary adjustments in 2024, particularly from the stretch. Most noticeably, he’s altered his set position to feature his hands closer to his waist, raising them along with his leg kick as a mechanism to keep his arm on-time. He’s gone from a 4.89 FIP in 2023 to a 3.64 in 2024 as a result.

The improved sample for both of these pitchers is small, but even if they don’t become the aces they were predestined to be, they are proving that they can be more than viable rotation pieces for their clubs in the coming years. 

 

JJ Bleday & A.J. Puk

 

It's always intriguing when two post-hype prospects are traded for each other, and the early 2023 deal that swapped Bleday and Puk is no exception. Both players were highly drafted, with Bleday going 4th overall to the Marlins in 2019 and Puk going 6th overall to the Athletics in 2016. Bleday was just entering his Trough of Disillusionment at the time of the trade, producing -0.3 fWAR in 65 games in his lone major league season in Miami. Puk was making his way out of his, transitioning successfully to a relief role after his descent down the prospect rankings due to injury.

Bleday’s star was bright when he was drafted. He was just coming off a stellar showing in his final college season, leading his Vanderbilt team to a College World Series. He moved quickly through the minors despite scuffling at the AA level, and peaked as Baseball America’s #43 prospect in 2021. His aforementioned season at AA kept him off the 2022 list, but he quickly rebounded with a 123 wRC+ showing in 85 games at AAA in 2022. He could not, however, repeat those results at the major league level, prompting the trade to Oakland. 

He positively shined in his 28 games at Oakland’s AAA affiliate, but again could not repeat the results upon his call to the big-league club. He finished with 0.4 fWAR and just a 92 wRC+ in 82 games with Oakland in 2023. His .195 batting average was especially concerning given he is not a Schwarber-esque power threat.

Puk was drafted as a 6’7” flamethrowing starter widely speculated to be the first pitcher, and possibly first player, off the board in 2016. That didn’t turn out to be the case, but he entered professional baseball with high expectations and delivered immediately in the low minors. He earned a promotion to AA in his first full season as a professional in 2017, after delivering a 3.03 ERA and 1.93 FIP in his 10-start stint at low-A the year prior. 

Tommy John surgery cost Puk his entire 2018 season, but that didn’t stop him from peaking as Baseball America’s #18 prospect heading into 2019. He continued to rehab and pitched just 36.2 innings that season, but 11.1 of those innings were pitched out of Oakland’s bullpen. He was gearing up to join the big-league rotation full-time in 2020 when it was found he'd need another surgery, this time on his shoulder. By the time of the trade just before his age-28 season, Puk had still never started a game in the MLB, a disappointing outcome despite his success in the bullpen.

This season, Bleday has been a key contributor for an Oakland team that is showing some life. He has a 120 wRC+ at the time of this writing and has accumulated 2.5 fWAR. His numbers are the result of a particularly strong May, and have since regressed a touch. Still, he’s proven to have been a strong buy-low acquisition for Oakland. 

Puk’s overall stats in 2024, on the other hand, look mixed. Puk finally made his first major league start this season, as a Marlins team that started with several pitching injuries was searching for viable rotation options. That experiment went poorly, after which Puk returned to the bullpen, where he is better suited for success. His particularly strong July prompted the Marlins to sell high on him in a trade to the Diamondbacks, for whom he’s been solid.

Bleday may never live up to his billing as a 4th overall pick, but if he continues to operate as a hitter with great plate discipline and occasional power, he will have a long career ahead of him. At this point, Puk will never live up to his once ace-level potential, but there is always room on a roster for a left-handed bullpen arm.

 

Bonus: Jon Singleton & Jurickson Profar

 

Two more players deserve a passing mention based on their 2024 performances. First, Jon Singleton, who was the 27th overall prospect on the Baseball America Top 100 in 2013, and signed a 5-year, $10 million contract extension – the first ever by a player who had yet to play in the majors – with the Astros in 2014. Singleton found himself out of baseball entirely after a 100-game suspension for marijuana use and his subsequent release by the Astros in 2018. 

His absence extended four years until an eventual return in 2022 with the Brewers. Singleton suffered from anxiety and addiction during his time off and credits therapy and starting a family for his return. He’s now back with the Astros, and although his production has been modest, he’s helped Houston plug the hole created by the struggles of recently released Jose Abreu at first base. 

The second player is Jurickson Profar, who was Baseball America’s #1 prospect in 2013 with the Rangers. He had shoulder surgeries in 2014 and 2015, stunting his development significantly. He remained in Texas until 2019 when he was traded to Oakland, then bounced between San Diego and Colorado, posting fWAR figures that left much to be desired until his career-best 2.5 fWAR for the 2022 Padres. He signed with the Rockies in 2023 where he posted a -1.8 fWAR – making him the worst player in Major League Baseball by that metric – before his release after 111 games. 

He was brought back to San Diego on a minor-league deal last September, and signed back with the team on a $1 million major league pact in February, which now looks like a genius move by the team. This year, Profar has finally delivered on his early promise, putting up a 145 WRC+ and 3.7 fWAR, tied with fellow All-Star Jackson Merrill for the best on the team.

These last two players demonstrate that the Hype Cycle never stops, and the severity and length of the highs and lows can be drastically different from player to player. Mostly, however, these players deserve recognition for their perseverance, and their contributions in 2024 following their long-winding careers should be applauded.