As Opening Day approaches, the Blue Jays are one of the most intriguing teams in baseball. Their once-up-and-coming core is now set to reach free agency next winter, giving 2025 the distinct feel of a make-or-break season. 

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette still offer plenty of firepower alongside free agent signee Anthony Santander, and a rotation featuring Kevin Gausman, Jose Berrios, Chris Bassitt and new acquisition Max Scherzer could be one of the best in the majors. Meanwhile, they just signed catcher Alejandro Kirk to an extension, signaling a willingness to compete this season.

Despite those signs of life, the Jays still find themselves in a division that includes the defending American League champion Yankees, reloaded Red Sox, star-studded Orioles and perennially-pesky Rays. The path to a playoff spot is by no means impassable, but the odds do seem stacked against them.

 

Like the Angels, the Blue Jays Have a Dilemma

The Blue Jays’ current state of affairs is somewhat reminiscent of the Angels prior to the 2023 campaign. A well-paid roster with plenty of name value, some underperforming or injury-prone stars, a division that lacks a clear path to first place, and above all a quickly shrinking competitive window.

The 2023 Angels were paying big money to Anthony Rendon, Mike Trout and Shohei Ohtani. Rendon had been (and continues to be) a complete flop during his $245 million tenure in Anaheim, Trout had topped 100 games played in a season just once since 2019, and Ohtani was slated to hit free agency at the end of the year. Critically, however, Ohtani had enormous trade value (well into the $50M+ plus range at the time, given his two-way status). So the Angels were faced with a dilemma coming into the season: augment their shaky core for one last playoff push with Ohtani, or accept their fate and plunge headfirst into a rebuild, trading away baseball’s unicorn in the process.

 

The All-In Approach

Angels owner Arte Moreno has never shown much willingness to throw in the towel, and 2023 was no different. General Manager Perry Minasian brought in veterans Tyler Anderson, Brandon Drury and Carlos Estévez on multi-year deals, and dealt three young hurlers to the Brewers for slugging outfielder Hunter Renfroe. 

Heading into 2023 with a payroll well over $200 million, and having made a bevy of win-now moves, the Angels were making one last push to win a World Series, or at least reach the postseason, for the first time in the Trout-Ohtani era. 

Trade season started early for the Halos, as they swung a pair of minor deals to shore up an injury-riddled infield in late June. Former Royal Mike Moustakas was acquired from the Rockies, and 2021 All-Star Eduardo Escobar was brought over from the Mets in an effort to replace the ever-injured Rendon.

The Angels found themselves in a decent, but not fantastic, spot on July 26th. They sat at 53-49 on the year, good for third place in the AL West and six games out of first place. Rumors swirled regarding the team’s trade deadline status. Would they finally pull the trigger on a long-overdue Ohtani trade to restock the farm system? Or would they take one last swing for the fences and reel in a few more big fish?

The answer to that question came with a bang, as the Angels made the first major move of the 2023 trade deadline. Minasian shipped out two of the club’s top prospects, Edgar Quero and Ky Bush, to the White Sox for rental right-handers Lucas Giolito and Reynaldo López. Minasian doubled down on his deadline approach four days later, dealing promising young hurlers Mason Albright and Jake Madden to the Rockies for mashing first baseman C.J. Cron and veteran outfielder Randal Grichuk, both pending free agents. One last swap was made at the eleventh hour, sending speedy infielder Jeremiah Jackson to the Mets for journeyman reliever Dominic Leone.

 

Unfortunately...

But those win-now moves backfired. The Angels immediately faceplanted by losing their first seven games in August, and sank to a 64-70 record by the end of the month, 12.5 games out of first place. With the playoffs now out of reach, the Halos waved the white flag, placing Giolito, López, Renfroe and other veterans on waivers, allowing contending teams to scoop them up in exchange for pure salary relief.

Ultimately, the 2023 Angels posted a miserable 73-89 record for the year, firing Manager Phil Nevin after the season’s conclusion. Ohtani then signed a record-breaking free agent deal with the Dodgers in December, leaving the Halos with a single compensatory draft pick in return. 2024 was even worse in Anaheim, as the Halos went 63-99 and don’t look likely to compete in the near future.

2023 was a seminal year for the Angels, with the trade deadline serving as a fork in the road for the organization. Instead of restocking an ailing farm system by trading a generational talent destined for free agency, the club recklessly pursued a fleeting playoff dream, subtracting young assets in an effort to patch up a sinking ship.

BTV Founder John Bitzer wrote a piece in August 2023 breaking down exactly how devastating the failed trade deadline strategy was to the Angels, determining that the organization lost over $60 million in value by zigging when they should have zagged. If instead of pushing all their chips in chasing a pipedream, Moreno and Minasian had cashed in Ohtani and other veteran assets, the Angels may not be stuck with the worst farm system in baseball and a terribly bleak future today.

 

The Decision Ahead

Which brings us back to the Blue Jays of 2025. It’s impossible to predict the future, but this coming season does appear to be do-or-die for the club. Head honchos Mark Shapiro and Ross Atkins appear determined to take another crack at the postseason, but the July 31st trade deadline will mark the true crossing of the Rubicon. They’ll still be able to pull the ripcord and trade away veteran pieces anytime before then.

If the Blue Jays do find themselves in a position to sell this summer, they should have no shortage of attractive short-term rentals to auction off. Chris Bassitt and Max Scherzer will be staring down the barrel of free agency, and would interest any team in need of rotation help. They each project to have a little bit of surplus value. On top of that, Kevin Gausman has two years left of team control, and has finished in the top ten in Cy Young Award voting in two of the past three seasons.  

On the relief pitching side of things Yimi García, who inked a two-year, $15 million pact this winter, and pending free agent Chad Green are two well-established right-handers with long track records of success, albeit with little surplus value. On offense, Daulton Varsho could draw interest from teams in need of outfield help, as he'll hit free agency in 2026, and currently projects to have $7M+ in surplus value at the deadline.

 

Bo and Vlad, or a Restocked Farm?

Of course, the two major prizes of a Blue Jays firesale would be multiple time All-Stars Bichette and Guerrero. Bichette is hoping for a bounceback 2025 season, and if current projections hold, will have a little bit of surplus value ($2M+) at the deadline, a bit less than his current estimate of around $6M.

Trading Guerrero now (as unlikely as that is) would generate well over $22M in surplus value, enabling the Jays to restock what is now BTV’s 26th-ranked farm system. More likely, the Jays will see how the season goes, and if things are looking grim come July, consider trading Guerrero then. Currently, he projects to have a bit over $7M in surplus value at the deadline, but we typically see overpays for stars at that time, so a deal similar to the one the Dodgers made to acquire Manny Machado in 2018 (roughly $22M in surplus value) may be possible -- which helps explain why they're still holding onto him.

But if they're out of the picture in July, they should look to avoid the fatal mistake of the 2023 Angels, and get what they can for their expiring assets, rather than plunge even deeper into a misguided playoff push.