Welcome to the 2024 Trade Deadline Roundup. All trades will be added to this article as they are reported.

 

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July 30

Baltimore Orioles acquire DH/OF Eloy Jiménez (-$9.5M) and cash ($5.5M) from the Chicago White Sox in exchange for LHP Trey McGough ($0.3M)

It took some time for the cash to be reported in this one, but it'll be a base $4.0M for 2024 and then an additional $1.5M if the Orioles choose to buy out Jiménez's 2025 club option. Given his projected performance against that $16.5M option, that seems likely.

Jiménez has been injured on and off throughout his career, and when he's been healthy, he hasn't always hit well enough to make up for his poor corner outfield defense. This season has been the worst of his career, with an 80 wRC+ before the trade. He's always hit lefties, and the Orioles will likely deploy him in that limited platoon role and see if he can catch fire.

For Chicago, this is almost entirely salary relief. McGough is a Triple-A relief prospect who might make his way to the big leagues by the end of the season.

The deal is accepted by our model as a moderate overpay by Baltimore.

Baltimore Orioles acquire LHP Gregory Soto ($0.8M) from the Philadelphia Phillies in exchange for RHPs Seth Johnson ($5.2M) and Moisés Chace ($2.3M)

Right at the deadline, the Phillies made a somewhat surprising decision to send Soto out of town. The lefty hasn't been incredible in Philadelphia (at least from an ERA perspective), had taken issue with his usage, and after the deal it was reported that his agent had requested a trade.

With all that in mind, the Phillies appear to have done very well here. Soto has one more year of arbitration remaining, but he's projected to earn about $7-8M, and hasn't quite been worth that. Meanwhile, they add two quality arms. Johnson, a 25-year-old in Double-A, is a bit old for his level due to a May 2022 Tommy John Surgery that kept him out until late 2023. But he's a solid prospect, as is Chace, though the latter comes with some relief risk.

It's tough to see the Orioles' angle here, though again, as a buzzer-beater they may have been willing to "lose" the deal from a value perspective to get the arm they wanted. They also likely included Johnson to keep the deal 40-man neutral, and seeing as Johnson will only have one option year remaining after 2024, his clock is ticking. The model barely accepted this trade as a major overpay by Baltimore.

New York Yankees acquire RHPs Enyel De Los Santos (-$0.1M) and Thomas Balboni Jr. ($0.4M) from the San Diego Padres in exchange for OF Brandon Lockridge ($0.4M)

A.J. Preller's aggressive bullpen additions created a logjam, and De Los Santos was pushed out as a result. The model loved San Diego's trade to acquire him this offseason, as he looked just as effective as the outgoing Scott Barlow, with two more years of team control. Barlow hasn't been great, but De Los Santos has contracted a case of homer-itis and has been sub-replacement level as a result. The Yankees will try to fix him, and if they can, they can keep him for the next two years.

The prospect swap isn't anything to get too excited about. Balboni is a 24-year-old reliever in Single-A, while Lockridge is a 27-year-old speed-and-defense fourth or fifth outfielder.

Boston Red Sox acquire RHP Luis García (-$0.2M) from the Los Angeles Angels in exchange for IFs Matthew Lugo ($1.5M) and Niko Kavadas ($1.2M) and RHPs Ryan Zeferjahn ($0.4M) and Yeferson Vargas ($0.4M)

This is a weird one, with the Red Sox seemingly emptying out their Triple-A roster in exchange for a middling rental arm in García. Perhaps it's desparation, as this move snuck in just before the buzzer, or perhaps new CBO Craig Breslow just wanted to clear house of some lesser prospects ahead of an upcoming 40-man crunch this offseason.

Boston isn't likely to lose sleep here, but it's a solid return for Los Angeles. None of the four profile to be anything special, but it's at least four dart throws, three of which are close to the majors and could get an opportunity down the stretch in 2024. The fourth, Vargas, is a low-minors lotto arm, closer to what you'd typically expect in return for a rental like García.

Pittsburgh Pirates acquire UT Isiah Kiner-Falefa ($1.0M) and cash ($2.2M) from the Toronto Blue Jays in exchange for OF Charles McAdoo ($1.9M)

The IKF signing was a head-scratcher to us this offseason, as $15M over two years seemed like a hefty commitment to an underwhelming player. We weren't necessarily wrong - Toronto did have to kick some cash into this deal - but Kiner-Falefa has enjoyed the best season of his career, by far, and actually fought his way to positive surplus value according to our model.

McAdoo is a power-hitting prospect who's hit well throughout his brief minor league career. But evaluators think the 22-year-old may struggle to make contact as he rises through the minors.

San Francisco Giants acquire OF Mark Canha (-$1.8M) from the Detroit Tigers in exchange for RHP Eric Silva ($0.5M)

Looking to toe the line between buying and selling, the Giants needed outfield depth, and picked up a Bay Area favorite in Canha. He hasn't been great offensively this season, and at 35 he may be nearing the end of the line, but he's always been an incredibly tough at-bat and he's mashed left-handed pitching this year.

Silva is a high spin rate relief prospect. His results haven't quite been there, but perhaps he's one tweak away.

Arizona Diamondbacks acquire RHP Dylan Floro ($1.7M) from the Washington Nationals in exchange for 1B Andrés Chaparro ($0.3M)

After adding A.J. Puk, the Diamondbacks wanted one more relief arm, and they got a nice deal on Floro. The righty hasn't missed as many bats as he typically does, but he's made up for it by keeping the ball off the barrel and in the ballpark, and he's been very effective as a result. Chaparro looks like a Quad-A slugger, but he hasn't gotten an MLB look yet, so perhaps there's something there.

San Diego Padres acquire LHP Martín Pérez (-$0.8M) from the Pittsburgh Pirates in exchange for LHP Ronaldys Jimenez (not yet in system)

With Yu Darvish and Joe Musgrove currently on the shelf, the Padres needed rotation depth badly. And after unloading the farm for the relievers, they were going to have to go dumpster-diving for it. Enter Pérez, a perfectly capable innings-eater and a familiar face for Preller. In exchange, the Pirates save about $2.9M, clear a roster spot and add a lottery ticket arm.

Baltimore Orioles acquire RHP Patrick Reilly ($2.3M) from the Pittsburgh Pirates in exchange for 2B/OF Billy Cook (not yet in system)

Baltimore and Pittsburgh snuck in an odd prospect swap amongst the trade deadline madness. Reilly is a cromulent High-A starting pitcher, while Cook is a Triple-A utility man who will be Rule 5 eligible this winter.

Los Angeles Dodgers acquire RHP Jack Flaherty ($9.3M) from the Detroit Tigers in exchange for C Thayron Liranzo ($17.4M) and IF Trey Sweeney ($2.2M)

This wasn't quite the haul the Blue Jays received for the other top rental starter available in Yusei Kikuchi, but at least according to our model, the Dodgers paid a pretty penny here for Flaherty. It's hard to blame them: Flaherty has been excellent this year, they needed another reliable arm and Liranzo was one of many solid catching prospects in the organizatino who are blocked long-term by Will Smith.

In the immediate aftermath of the trade, some fans were highly critical of Liranzo's value, even suggesting that the decimal should be moved a spot to the left. But prospect evaluators love his power potential, even if he hasn't quite shown it as a 20-year-old in High-A. He's still held his own offensively at that level while trying to handle one of the most demanding positions on the field. He has a chance to be a switch-hitting impact bat at catcher, and that's hard to come by. And if top prospect Dillon Dingler pans out the way Detroit hopes he does, Liranzo's bat should play fine at first base.

Sweeney's inclusion marks the second time he's been traded in the last eight months, as he was dealt from the Yankees to the Dodgers last December. The former first-round pick has lost his shine, but he's a capable shortstop and has a possible big league future as a utility man.

This deal was rejected by the model as an overpay by Los Angeles.

Tampa Bay Rays acquire OF Dylan Carlson ($0.1M) from the St. Louis Cardinals in exchange for RHP Shawn Armstrong ($0.7M)

If any team can fix Carlson, it's probably the Rays, who can give the former top prospect a full run the rest of the way before deciding what to do with his final two years of arbitration. He's still only 25. Armstrong is a rental arm who was excellent last year, but has seen his ERA balloon in 2024, thanks to regression seemingly across the board (home runs, walks, LOB%, BABIP, HR/FB$).

New York Mets acquire RHP Huascar Brazoban ($8.3M) from the Miami Marlins in exchange for UT Wilfredo Lara ($0.5M)

At first glance, this one seems odd. Brazoban has been excellent this year, and like many other relievers moved this deadline, is a late bloomer (34) with tons of cheap team control remaining (in his case, four more years). The Mets should be thrilled to be adding such an arm, especially so cheap; Lara hit well in Single-A in 2023 but doesn't have much prospect hype, profiling as a utility type.

If there's a point against Brazoban, it's his age; at 34, he might not be effective by the time he reaches those last couple arbitration years. If there's another point, it's his extensive visa issues that cost him the first month of the 2024 season, and the possibility that they recur in future years.

Still, this looks like a great add by New York; this deal was accepted by the model, but just barely, as a major underpay.

Philadelphia Phillies acquire LHP Tanner Banks ($10.9M) from the Chicago White Sox in exchange for IF William Bergolla ($7.1M)

Banks, 32, has enjoyed a breakout season with the White Sox. The lefty has been particularly dominant against same-handed hitters, and as a late bloomer, he comes with an additional four years of cheap team control. His addition facilitated Philadelphia's buzzer-beater trade of Gregory Soto to Baltimore.

Bergolla is a contact-hitting second baseman, not a profile that the model (or prospect evaluators) typically favor. But he has a great feel for hitting, and one could dream on Luis Arraez-level upside, though he's unlikely to ever reach quite that high.

This deal was accepted by the model as a minor overpay by Philadelphia. It's possible this is another case of the model being a bit too high on the additional years of team control for a reliever who is already in his early 30s.

Los Angeles Dodgers acquire OF Kevin Kiermaier (-$1.6M) and cash ($1.7M) from the Toronto Blue Jays in exchange for LHP Ryan Yarbrough (-$1.4M)

The Blue Jays placed Kiermaier on waivers earlier this season in an attempt to get him to a contender in his final season (and clear his salary off the books), but he went unclaimed. Instead, the 34-year-old gets flipped to Los Angeles, where he'll have a chance to close out his career on top.

Yarbrough had been DFA'd by Los Angeles earlier in the week. He'll eat innings for a Toronto staff that lost multiple arms at the deadline. When factoring in Yarbough's salary and the cash they sent to the Dodgers, the Blue Jays only save about $0.4M here. But they do right by a respected veteran player and add an arm that better fits their roster construction.

Pittsburgh Pirates acquire OF Bryan De La Cruz ($3.2M) from the Miami Marlins in exchange for UT Garrett Forrester ($1.1M) and RHP Jun-Seok Shim ($0.8M)

The Marlins fire sale continued with De La Cruz, an interesting player who's always seemed one click away from an offensive breakout but never quite gotten there. He's now 27 and probably is what he is: a league-average power bat who doesn't get on base or defend particularly well. Maybe there's more in the tank, but even if not, he's a decent player to have in the lineup (especially against lefties) and has three arbitration years remaining.

This return is particularly interesting for Miami. Forrester has hit well in Single-A, but as a 22-year-old he's old for the level. He was drafted as a first baseman, played catcher to start the year and has been playing third base as of late. Shim signed with the Pirates out of the KBO in 2023 and has pitched only eight innings stateside due to injuries. But the 20-year-old throws hard and looks like more than your typical international lottery ticket arm.

New York Mets acquire RHP Tyler Zuber ($0.0M) from the Tampa Bay Rays in exchange for RHP Paul Gervase (not yet in system)

A depth move for the Mets, though Zuber looked very good in Triple-A with the Rays this season. Gervase could be a similar arm, but five years younger and not yet requiring a 40-man spot.

San Diego Padres acquire LHP Tanner Scott ($5.5M) and RHP Bryan Hoeing ($0.1M) from the Miami Marlins in exchange for LHP Robby Snelling ($10.6M), RHP Adam Mazur ($8.0M) and 3Bs Graham Pauley ($6.0M) and Jay Beshears ($1.1M)

A.J. Preller, you madman, you've done it again! This time, the Padres' dealmaker essentially cleared out his farm of all but his very best prospects just to acquire three relievers, one of which is a rental. He may be on the hot seat, but with the Padres currently holding a Wild Card spot, the aggressive moves might just be enough for him to keep his job.

Scott is an excellent lefty, and likely the best rental reliever on the market. But he's still just that - a rental - and with his command issues, he's closer to "very good" than "elite." He should pair extremely well with Robert Suárez in the late innings. Hoeing has been fine this year, but looks more like a depth arm, and has two options remaining should he need to be shuttled to Triple-A and back at any point.

Snelling, like Dylan Lesko (who headlined the Padres' trade for Jason Adam), was once an exciting pitching prospect who has seen his stock drop significantly in 2024. He isn't hitting his spots and is getting lit up in Double-A as a result, but at 20, there's still plenty of time and upside here. By our model's estimations, he alone would have been a fine return for Miami, but they add a second interesting arm in Mazur. The 23-year-old has been torched in his first MLB experience this year and may be ticketed for the bullpen long-term, but he still has back-end starter potential.

And that's not the end of it - Pauley lit up the minor leagues in 2023 as a slugging third baseman. This year he's taken a step back in Triple-A (and a brief MLB stint), and his defensive home is still in question, but he could be a talented hitter. Beshears is the least exciting of the bunch, a likely utility man at best.

Each of the four players the Marlins are receiving have clear flaws, and none have even performed remotely well at the Triple-A level. But they each (perhaps with the exception of Beshears) have clear upside and prospect pedigree, and it's a much stronger return than you'd typically see for a rental reliever and a depth arm.

The deal was rejected by our model as an overpay by San Diego.

Texas Rangers acquire LHP Andrew Chafin ($0.7M) from the Detroit Tigers in exchange for RHPs Joseph Montalvo ($2.1M) and Chase Lee ($0.4M)

For what feels like the 10th consecutive season, Chafin changes teams at the deadline (in reality, it's his fourth swap in five years). This time, "The Sheriff" heads to Texas, where his handlebar mustache and cowboy attitude will fit in just fine. At 34, he's still a surprisingly effective left-handed reliever, and if he finishes the year strong, the Rangers can consider his $6.5M club option for 2025 (though at this point, it looks like a probable decline).

Montalvo is a solid pitching prospect, a likely back-end arm who might be able to grow into more, but could also flame out in the upper minors. Lee is a funky reliever, a Sergio Romo-esque soft-tossing sinker/slider artist, who looks close to MLB-ready.

Minnesota Twins acquire RHP Trevor Richards (-$0.2M) from the Toronto Blue Jays in exchange for IF Jay Harry (not yet in system)

The Twins get a participation trophy for this one, as a contending team with legitimate needs adding nothing more than a replacement-level reliever due to their own self-imposed budgetary restraints. Richards is a fine rental middle-reliever, but Minnesota needed more. For Toronto, Harry looks like a depth utility player at best.

Houston Astros acquire LHP Caleb Ferguson ($0.8M) from the New York Yankees in exchange for RHP Kelly Austin (not yet in system) and international bonus money

After adding Mark Leiter Jr. (and potentially with a future addition in mind), New York's bullpen was getting crowded. Ferguson, who has struggled this year, was the odd man out. The Astros have been looking for a trustworthy lefty reliever for years and were happy to take a chance on the 28-year-old, who will be a free agent at the end of the season. The cost was low, a High-A relief prospect in Austin and some bonus pool space.

New York Mets acquire RHP Paul Blackburn ($2.6M) from the Oakland Athletics in exchange for RHP Kade Morris ($2.0M)

After losing Kodai Senga for the year, starting pitching depth was a priority for the Mets, and Blackburn is exactly that. The 30-year-old isn't going to be an ace, but he'll throw the kitchen sink and eat some innings. He's under team control through 2025.

Morris is a nice return for Oakland, a High-A righty who could become a Blackburn-eque back-end starter in a couple years.

Seattle Mariners acquire RHP JT Chargois (-$0.4M) from the Miami Marlins in exchange for RHP Will Schomberg (not yet in system)

The Mariners wanted one more arm to round out their bullpen and turned to a familiar face in Chargois. He pitched well for the club in a short stint in 2021 and has been effective in his 15 appearances this year, though his peripherals are pretty ugly. Schomberg is pitching fairly well in Single-A and High-A this year, though at 23 he's been old for the levels and looks more like a depth arm.

Kansas City Royals acquire SS Paul DeJong ($0.8M) from the Chicago White Sox in exchange for RHP Jarold Rosado (not yet in system)

Depth doesn't hurt for the Royals, who haven't gotten much production out of second or third base this year. DeJong has been a league average hitter for the White Sox, who turn the low-cost free agent addition into a hard-throwing Single-A relief prospect.

Kansas City Royals acquire RHP Lucas Erceg ($8.5M) from the Oakland Athletics in exchange for RHPs Mason Barnett ($2.7M) and Will Klein ($2.4M) and OF Jared Dickey (not yet in system)

Erceg is an excellent story, a failed third base prospect who converted to the mound in 2021 at the age of 26. He worked his way through Milwaukee's season but didn't get an opportunity until Oakland picked him up in exchange for cash and added him to their MLB roster. He's still learning how to pitch, but he throws a triple-digits fastball and a wipeout changeup, and won't be a free agent until the 2030 offseason.

The A's get a decent package in return. Barnett is missing bats in Double-A and looks like he could stick as a starter, while Klein has a chance to be another Erceg, if the hard-throwing righty can find the zone more often. Dickey is hitting well in High-A, but prospect evaluators have him pegged as a platoon fourth or fifth outfielder.

Cleveland Guardians acquire RHP Alex Cobb ($0.9M) from the San Francisco Giants in exchange for LHP Jacob Bresnahan (not yet in system) and a PTBNL

Cobb was excellent for the Giants the past two seasons, and looked like he was ahead of schedule for a return after offseason hip surgery, but shoulder issues and a blister stalled him to the point that he still hasn't pitched a major league inning this year. At 36 the decline is likely coming soon, but he's a reasonable gamble for a Cleveland club that's struggled to fill out its rotation.

San Francisco, on the other hand, likes its staff enough to consider Cobb a luxury. They save about $3.6M here and add a low-minors lottery ticket in Bresnahan, plus a PTBNL.

Arizona Diamondbacks acquire 1B/DH Josh Bell (-$4.7M) and cash ($3.6M) from the Miami Marlins in exchange for cash considerations or a PTBNL

After losing Christian Walker to an oblique strain, the Diamondbacks grabbed Bell at the price of just payroll space. After factoring in the cash from the Marlins, he'll cost Arizona about $2.3M down the stretch. He was just starting to hit well prior to the trade, so perhaps the Diamondbacks can catch one of Bell's trademark hot streaks.

Baltimore Orioles acquire LHP Trevor Rogers ($18.0M) from the Miami Marlins in exchange for 2B Connor Norby ($10.1M) and OF Kyle Stowers ($0.1M)

The model likes Rogers, who was excellent in 2021 but has been closer to "just okay" since. He's 26 with two additional years of team control and, in the worst-case scenario, all three options remaining. But perhaps most importantly from a surplus value perspective, he's extremely cheap - his $1.53M arbitration baseline for 2024 means he's only projected to earn somewhere around $7.0M combined between 2025 and 2026.

Norby is a solid prospect. He's likely close to MLB-ready, but didn't have a long-term home in Baltimore with mega prospect Jackson Holliday breathing down his neck. As a primary second baseman (with a poor defensive reputation overall), he gets adjusted down a bit by the model, though the Marlins reportedly plan to try him at third base. Stowers has some supporters, but he's spent most of the past three seasons in Triple-A. Baltimore hasn't given him an extended MLB opportunity, and we've learned that when a team shows they don't believe in one of their players, it can be indicative of their value across the league. Still, Stowers can clearly hit Triple-A pitching, and Miami will find out if there's something there..

If you like Norby as a third baseman and think Stowers has MLB talent, and think Rogers is more like a fourth or fifth starter than the upside he's shown, then this deal looks pretty fair, or perhaps even like an overpay by Baltimore. The model rejects this deal as an underpay by the Orioles, but there's room for reasonable disagreement.

Boston Red Sox acquire RHP Lucas Sims ($0.1M) from the Cincinnati Reds in exchange for RHP Ovis Portes ($0.5M)

Sims has shown flashes of excellence in the past, particularly back in 2021 (1.3 fWAR in 47 innings). But he's been sub-replacement level this year as he's walked too many batters and allowed too many home runs. He still has some red on his Baseball Savant page and should lengthen what's been a disappointing Boston bullpen.

Portes is a hard-throwing teenaged pitching prospect who's looked solid in Single-A this season, though he's likely ticketed for the bullpen long-term.

Pittsburgh Pirates acquire LHP Josh Walker ($0.1M) from the New York Mets in exchange for LHP Nicolas Carreno (not yet in system)

Just a depth move for Pittsburgh, which added on the fringes this week. The Mets previously DFA'd Walker to make room for Ryne Stanek.

New York Yankees acquire RHP Mark Leiter Jr. ($15.2M) from the Chicago Cubs in exchange for RHP Jack Neely ($1.6M) and SS/2B Benjamin Cowles ($1.1M)

The Yankees entered deadline day looking for relief help, and they struck quickly with the first move of the day to grab one of the market's most underrated arms. Leiter's underlying metrics are fantastic, and even though he's 33, he comes with two additional years of team control.

Some like Chicago's return here more than our values would suggest, but as a reminder, we aren't prospect evaluators; our prospect values are based on evaluations from public sources. Neely is a relief prospect who's pitched well in the upper minors this year, while Cowles is a middle infielder hitting well in Double-A. Both are Rule 5 eligible this offseason, limiting their value a bit.

It's possible the model is overvaluing Leiter's years of control, especially given his age. But compared to some of the other relief trades this summer, it looks like the Yankees might have just gotten a good deal here.

The trade was rejected by our model as an underpay by New York.

July 29

Atlanta Braves acquire DH Jorge Soler (-$15.0M) and RHP Luke Jackson (-$4.6M) from the San Francisco Giants in exchange for LHP Tyler Matzek (-$0.7M) and IF Sabin Ceballos ($0.9M)

For the third time since BTV's inception, the Braves have made a baffling trade to take on an entire contract that the model perceived to be deeply underwater. The first two, Mark Melancon in 2019 and Raisel Iglesias in 2022, worked out fairly well for Atlanta. But that doesn't mean my hopes are high for this one.

Soler signed a three-year, $42M contract with San Francisco last offseason, and that figure was actually right in line with the model's expectations. But his performance this year (116 wRC+) in what was supposed to be the best year of the deal has been a step back from his 2023 performance (126 wRC+) which earned him the contract, and his batted ball quality is down as well. That's enough to send him solidly underwater.

Obviously Atlanta has fond memories of Soler from the 2021 World Series run. But the reality is that he's a DH who will now be asked to play the outfield regularly to accomodate Marcell Ozuna, and he isn't hitting as well as one would hope given his contract. There's nothing wrong with the idea of the reunion, or even overpaying a bit given the dearth of alternative power hitters available. But letting San Francisco dump his entire salary feels like a mistake.

Jackson's inclusion is less offensive. The righty is owed a much more affordable $2.3M down the stretch, plus a $2M buyout for 2025. He's put together a run of solid outings recently, and if he pitches closer to his career norms, he'll be worth that money.

For the Giants, Matzek's inclusion is largely to offset salary a bit, as the lefty has been out with an elbow injury for much of the season and isn't guaranteed to return before the end of the year. Ceballos is a plus third base defender with a good approach, but not much power. The true prize of the deal for San Francisco is the cost savings, as it may be able to squeak under the luxury tax threshold with additional moves.

The deal was rejected by our model as an overpay by Atlanta.

Milwaukee Brewers acquire RHP Frankie Montas (-$1.1M) from the Cincinnati Reds in exchange for OF Joey Wiemer ($6.8M), RHP Jakob Junis (-$3.2M) and cash ($1.0M)

After reportedly missing out on Fedde, the Brewers pivoted to a lesser arm in Montas. The right-hander was a $16M free agent gamble for Cincinnati, and he's shown flashes of his peak form, but owns an ERA just over five for the season. Milwaukee's rotation has been a revolving door, so stability would be welcome in and of itself, but there's upside to dream on here, too.

We expected Montas' remaining ~$5M in salary (plus his $2M buyout for 2025) to limit his value pretty significantly, but instead the Reds ended up getting a solid return. Wiemer is trending down as he continues to struggle against MLB pitching, but his defense gives him a high floor; he just needs to make enough contact to tap into his big power. Junis helps offset the salary a bit, and as a swingman type, he could provide Cincinnati with the depth to trade Nick Martinez if teams are interested. The cash going to the Reds offsets Junis' 2025 mutual option, which has a $3M buyout (compared to Montas' $2M).

This deal was accepted by our model, but as a major overpay by Milwaukee.

Houston Astros acquire LHP Yusei Kikuchi ($4.9M) from the Toronto Blue Jays in exchange for RHP Jake Bloss ($9.2M), 1B/OF Joey Loperfido ($6.1M) and 2B Will Wagner ($2.0M)

Holy overpay! This one was felt around the industry, leading us to believe the model is firmly on the right side of reality here.

To be clear, Kikuchi is very good. He's throwing harder than he ever has in his career, and that's leading to some of the best underlying metrics of his career; Houston certainly cares a lot more about his 3.64 FIP and 3.39 xFIP than his 4.75 ERA. He could be a real difference-maker for an Astros rotation that has been ravaged by injuries this season, and they'd be thrilled to see him take the ball in Game 2 or 3 of a playoff series.

But, he's a rental, and one with a much longer track record of mediocrity than that of success at the level his peripherals would suggest. With that in mind, the idea of trading away Bloss - a fringe Top 100 prospect who flew through the minors this year - and two other interesting young players seems like a step too far. Houston's window is closing, and its farm has been depleted by moves like this, so it looks like the team is just going all in.

That's all to Toronto's benefit, as it continues to have an excellent deadline. Bloss would have been an excellent return on his own, a 23-year-old who could probably use some minor league seasoning but certainly isn't far from being MLB-ready. But Loperfido has crushed Triple-A pitching and could step straight onto the roster, and Wagner isn't too far behind, albeit likely in more of a utility role. It isn't often that you get three likely big leaguers for a non-elite rental, so kudos to the Blue Jays.

As expected, this deal was rejected by our model as an overpay by Houston.

Pittsburgh Pirates acquire LHP Jalen Beeks ($1.3M) from the Colorado Rockies in exchange for LHP Luis Peralta ($1.6M)

The Pirates are (modestly) buying! They're certainly not the strongest team in the race, but only two games back of the final NL Wild Card spot, Pittsburgh decided to add on the fringes. Beeks is who he is, a capable rental lefty who will benefit from escaping Coors. Peralta is a left-handed reliever himself, and the brother of Brewers ace Freddy Peralta.

Los Angeles Dodgers acquire IF Amed Rosario ($1.6M) from the Tampa Bay Rays in exchange for RHP Michael Flynn (not yet in system)

For the second consecutive season, the Dodgers have traded for Rosario at the deadline. He's hitting better than he was at this time last year, though it's largely been BABIP-driven. Flynn turns 28 this week, but very few organizations can identify late-blooming relievers better than the Rays.

Cleveland Guardians acquire OF Lane Thomas ($5.7M) from the Washington Nationals in exchange for LHP Alex Clemmey ($10.6M) and IFs Rafael Ramirez Jr. ($3.3M) and José Tena ($1.7M)

The Nationals have held on tightly to Thomas despite reported interest over the last couple of years. But now, they found their deal, and it looks like a good one.

Clemmey is the prize, a 2023 second-round pick out of high school with a lot of helium. At 19, he's a project for sure, but exactly the kind of player a rebuilding club needs to take a gamble on. Ramirez is a teenaged middle infielder with a bit too much swing-and-miss in his game to capitalize on his plus raw power, while Tena is an MLB-ready utility man. All in all, another very strong return for Washington.

Cleveland has long needed offense, especially in the outfield. But this feels like a high price to pay for Thomas given his limitations. He's largely a short-side platoon bat, peaking at a 91 wRC+ against righties during his career year in 2023. He's also a free agent after next season, and likely going to get an arbitration bump into the $8-9M range for that year. He's not a bad player by any means, but he has his shortcomings, and those limit his value. The Guardians have plenty of talented young arms and middle infielders in their system, but that doesn't make it good process to trade them away regardless of value.

This deal was rejected by our model as an overpay by Cleveland.

Seattle Mariners acquire 1B/DH Justin Turner (-$3.1M) and cash ($2.0M) from the Toronto Blue Jays in exchange for OF RJ Schreck (not yet in system)

This is a nice, low-risk move for the Mariners, who add a professional hitter to a lineup in desparate need of exactly that. The true cost to Seattle is payroll space, as Turner will cost the cliub about $2.6M down the stretch after accounting for the cash included in the deal. Toronto receives an outfielder without much prospect hype, but a cool .401 OBP in High-A this season.

Three-team deal: St. Louis Cardinals acquire RHP Erick Fedde ($19.0M), OF Tommy Pham ($1.1M), cash (from CWS) and a PTBNL/cash (from LAD), Los Angeles Dodgers acquire UT Tommy Edman ($2.6M) and RHPs Michael Kopech (-$0.7M) and Oliver Gonzalez (not yet in system), and Chicago White Sox acquire IFs Miguel Vargas ($7.0M), Alexander Albertus ($2.5M) and Jeral Perez ($1.9M)

This three-team trade grew larger and larger as additional reports came through, and as each player was added to the deal it seemed to make less and less sense.

According to our model, the Cardinals are the clear winners here, and that seems to be in line with the industry consensus. They add a year and a half of Fedde, a mid-rotation arm who will only earn $7.5M next season, and a decent rental bat in Pham, for the price of just a year and a half of Edman (more on him later) and a fringe arm in Gonzalez. They might even come out of this deal with additional cash or a PTBNL! What a steal.

Next up, the Dodgers, who receive Edman from St. Louis. The 29-year-old looked like a super-utility star in 2022, bouncing around the diamond with above average defense, baserunning and offense en route to a 5.4 fWAR season. But 2023 was a step back offensively, placing him closer to 3-win territory, and he hasn't played yet in 2024 due to wrist and ankle injuries. He'll be back soon, but he can't be expected to hit the ground running from day one. And even if he does, is that as a 3-win player with a below average bat, or as a multifaceted superstar? It's a legitimate question, and he's locked in at a $9.5M salary next year - a steal if he's the player he was in 2022, but the surplus decreases sharply the closer you get to his 2023 performance, which is more in line with what projection systems expect.

It's easy to see the appeal in Kopech, and I wouldn't blame Los Angeles for having him valued higher than the model's -$0.7M. The flamethrower has allowed too many walks and home runs in his return to the bullpen this year, but the stuff is obviously there; he's one click away from becoming a relief monster, and he comes with an additional year of control.

The White Sox return here also leaves plenty to be desired. Vargas was once close to a blue-chipper, but after a mediocre first 400 plate appearances in the majors, his stock has dropped. He doesn't have a set position, and while his bat has enough upside to make that work, he hasn't shown enough of that in the big leagues. Albertus and Veras are a pair of 19-year-old Single-A infielders, and it wouldn't be hard to picture one (or both) turning into exciting prospects, but it would take significant development.

The Dodgers paid a bit more than we'd expect for a player with an uncertain future whom the model doesn't love. But they primarily gave up spare parts to do so. The White Sox look like the true losers here, as they managed to trade one of the top controllable arms available for a package that looks significantly weaker than what the Blue Jays received for a rental in Yusei Kikuchi.

Needless to say, this deal was rejected by our model.

Cincinnati Reds acquire 1B Ty France (-$2.4M) and cash (reportedly $1.4M) from the Seattle Mariners in exchange for C Andruw Salcedo (not yet in system)

The Mariners designated France for assignment last week after a sub-replacement level first half of the season. Now, with the Reds taking a flier, Seattle will save about $1.0M down the stretch. Salcedo looks more like org depth than anything substantial.

Boston Red Sox acquire RHP Quinn Priester ($4.4M) from the Pittsburgh Pirates in exchange for IF Nick Yorke ($3.8M)

This fun little challenge trade sees two former Top 100 prospects (and first-round picks) swap places. Priester hasn't missed any bats since making his big league debut in 2023, and the righty will be a project for Craig Breslow and the Red Sox to take on. The 23-year-old has two option years remaining.

Yorke, on the other hand, saw his stock dip after a disappointing 2022 and a good-not-great 2023. He earned a promotion to Triple-A in 2024 and has hit extremely well in his first 38 games there. If he keeps it up, the 22-year-old could see big league time by the end of the season. If not, he'll be Rule 5 eligible this offseason and will need top be protected.

Kansas City Royals acquire RHP Michael Lorenzen ($1.6M) from the Texas Rangers in exchange for LHP Walter Pennington ($0.4M)

With Cody Bradford, Tyler Mahle and Jacob deGrom due to return from the Injured List in the coming weeks, the Rangers were one of only a few teams with a surplus of starting pitching to trade from. Lorenzen drew the short straw, and now the swingman is headed to Kansas City to round out a rotation that's performed quite well this year.

Pennington is a decent relief prospect who made his debut with the Royals earlier this year. The lefty could easily find his way into the Rangers' bullpen down the stretch.

July 28

Texas Rangers acquire C Carson Kelly ($2.3M) from the Detroit Tigers in exchange for C Liam Hicks ($1.2M) and RHP Tyler Owens ($0.9M)

Kelly was a quiet pick-up for Detroit last season, and this season he's quietly been a pretty productive player. He's no star, but as a catcher, plus defense and an above-average bat will go a long way. He'll be a pretty sizeable improvement for Texas over Andrew Knizner, who currently sports a wRC+ of just 4.

Hicks is a solid contact hitter, but doesn't have much power, and he'll need to improve defensively as a catcher to have a big league future. Owens is a decent Double-A relief prospect. But most importantly for Detroit, this deal opens up playing time for top catching prospect Dillon Dingler, who's been hitting well in Triple-A this year.

Chicago Cubs acquire 3B Isaac Paredes ($53.8M) from the Tampa Bay Rays in exchange for UT Christopher Morel ($22.7M) and RHPs Hunter Bigge ($0.2M) and Ty Johnson (not yet in system)

The roster churn in Tampa Bay continues with their biggest move yet, and it's arguably their most confusing. Paredes was one of the team's most attractive trade chips, a slugging third baseman on pace for a second consecutive four-win season with three additional years of control remaining. Multiple contenders expressed interest, but instead it's the Cubs coming out of nowhere to scoop him up, and given the price they paid, it's hard to blame them for doing so.

Bigge took a step forward in 2024 and looks like a real relief prospect; he should probably be higher than $0.2M. And Johnson is a real pitching prospect himself, and will probably slot into the low single digits when added. But still, this deal largely amounts to Paredes for Morel, and it's hard to convince yourself Tampa Bay is getting the better end of that swap.

One glance at Morel's Baseball Savant page helps explain the Rays' interest - there's a whole lot of red on there. But that's already baked into his value. Even if you look past his surface stats, he still looks like the same 2.5-ish fWAR player he's been each of the last two seasons. He's versatile defensively, but that comes with a catch - he really hasn't proven himself a good enough defender at any position to stick there every day.

Meanwhile, Paredes has more blue than you might expect on his Savant page, but again, that's included in his value. The other elements baked in include his solid third base defense and three-year track record of consistent offensive performance. He's simply been a better player than Morel, and projects to be better going forward. Both players are 25, and while Morel has one more year of control than Paredes - and will be cheaper through arbitration, since Paredes is a Super Two player and will get pricey in his final arb years - that's not enough to bridge the gap in projected Field Value.

Tampa Bay's plan here seems clear: sell high on Paredes, swap him for someone whose underlying offensive metrics are more attractive, and in the process you save future money, pick up an extra year of team control and add a pair of interesting arms. That's all logical, and fits the Rays' MO. But Paredes has been so valuable, and Morel has so many question marks, that it's far from a slam dunk. The Rays have earned the benefit of the doubt, but it really looks like they should have gotten more here.

This deal was rejected by our model as an underpay by Chicago.

San Diego Padres acquire RHP Jason Adam ($6.0M) from the Tampa Bay Rays in exchange for RHP Dylan Lesko ($9.7M), OF Homer Bush Jr. ($2.2M) and C J.D. Gonzalez ($2.2M)

The trades for Carlos Estévez and Yimi García may have been warning signs, but this deal is the first true indication that the price for relief help might be steeper than we expected. Adam is a quality late-inning arm, and he comes with two additional years of cheap control. But he's 32, and he isn't exactly dominant, making the level of return here a bit questionable.

Lesko is the headliner, and it's important to point out just how far his stock has fallen. Last offseason his value peaked at $29.5M, more than enough to headline a deal for a significantly more impactful player than Adam. But Lesko hasn't thrown strikes since returning from Tommy John Surgery, and the industry is souring on him as a result. There's still plenty of upside here, but there's also further room to fall if the Rays can't turn him around.

Bush profiles as a likely fourth outfielder, though his speed and center field defense leave a bit of room to get excited for more. Gonzalez was San Diego's third-round pick in 2023, and he has a chance to both hit and stick behind the plate, but he's a long way from the big leagues.

If you think Lesko is a falling knife and like Adam a bit more than the model, then this deal is well within reasonable limits. But it also isn't too hard to see this blowing up in A.J. Preller's face. And when presented alongside the Estévez and García deals, this looks more like a trend than an outlier or a blip in the model.

This deal was rejected by the model as an overpay by San Diego.

New York Mets acquire OF Jesse Winker ($3.1M) from the Washington Nationals in exchange for RHP Tyler Stuart ($2.0M)

Obvious sellers at one point, the Mets have rode a hot streak into a new status as cautious buyers. Winker is essentially the same player he's always been: a high-OBP platoon bat with some pop and questionable corner outfield defense. He's rocking a .390 OBP against right-handed pitching, and that'll help lengthen any lineup.

As a rental, the return wasn't too steep; Stuart profiles as a sixth starter/swingman type, and he hasn't yet cracked Triple-A. But it's still a win for Washington, which signed Winker to a minor league deal in February and now gets to flip him for younger talent.

July 27

Boston Red Sox acquire C Danny Jansen ($2.5M) from the Toronto Blue Jays in exchange for IFs Eddinson Paulino ($1.7M) and Cutter Coffey ($0.9M) and RHP Gilberto Batista (not yet in system)

What was once a massive logjam behind the plate in Toronto has finally resolved itself. The team dealt former top prospect Gabriel Moreno to Arizona in December of 2022 and now moves Jansen to Boston, leaving Alejandro Kirk as the everyday backstop. Unfortunately for the Blue Jays, they're dealing Jansen at his lowest value - at one point, he might have returned a haul worth more than $20M, but as a rental in the midst of a mediocre year, it's a much lighter package now.

Paulino and Coffey look like utility players, though the latter has shown flashes of enticing power. Batista, 19, is a complex level flier. For the Red Sox, Jansen presents a low-cost upgrade behind the plate, as he'll be replacing the struggling Reece McGuire.

Philadelphia Phillies acquire RHP Carlos Estévez ($2.5M) from the Los Angeles Angels in exchange for RHP George Klassen ($4.5M) and LHP Samuel Aldegheri ($3.1M)

The Phillies were already in the market for relief help before sending Seranthony Dominguez to Baltimore, but after doing so, their sense of urgency increased. They pounced on Estévez, who has bounced back from his struggles in the second half of 2023 to reestablish himself in 2024 as one of the best rental relievers available.

Still, the price Philadelphia paid was steep, especially for a rental relief arm who isn't quite dominant. Klassen and Aldegheri are both enjoying breakout seasons, the latter having recently been promoted to Double-A. This is more talent than you usually see changing hands for a non-elite rental reliever. Perhaps the Phillies think they're just selling high, but the industry seems to agree that this was an excellent return for the Angels.

This deal was accepted by our model, but as a moderate overpay by Philadelphia.

New York Yankees acquire IF/OF Jazz Chisholm Jr. ($33.6M) from the Miami Marlins in exchange for C Agustin Ramirez ($11.1M), IF Jared Serna ($5.6M) and UT Abrahan Ramirez (not yet in system)

One of the most polarizing players available this deadline, Chisholm had a long list of interested suitors. It also seemed like the new Marlins regime was ready to part ways with the 26-year-old. That makes it all the more puzzling that the return was so light, at least according to our model.

Agustin Ramirez is the prize of the deal, a slugging 22-year-old catcher who has reached Triple-A this year. He has some helium and is shooting up prospect lists; don't be surprised if his value continues to rise between now and the offseason. Serna is High-A middle infielder with surprising pop given his diminutive stature, and Abrahan Ramirez is a 19-year-old hitting well enough at the complex level, but ultimately he looks like a lottery ticket at this point.

Even if you want to give Agustin Ramirez a bump, there's still a sizeable gap between the return package and Chisholm's $33.6M value. Jazz has a lot going for him: youth, two additional years of affordable team control, defensive versatility up the middle, and a track record of strong performance, including playing at something like a 7-fWAR pace in 2022. On the flipside, he hasn't played anything close to a full season since 2021, his 2024 season has been closer to "above average" than "superstar," and there's a sense that he hasn't reached his full potential and may even be overrated.

Still, the model sees considerable value here. Even if he continues at his current pace for the next two years and change, that's something like a seven-win player over that span, at a premium position. There's a chance he's less than that, especially given his injury history, but he could also be a lot more, given the flashes of upside he's shown.

Perhaps Peter Bendix is considerably higher on the return package than the industry. Or maybe the relationship between Chisholm and the team frayed more significantly than has been publicly reported. Either way, it's to the Yankees' benefit, as they add an impact player who can lengthen the lineup and shore up multiple positions of need, all while maintaining plenty of prospect firepower for future moves.

This deal was rejected by our model as an underpay by New York.

Milwaukee Brewers acquire RHP Nate Mears ($5.6M) from the Colorado Rockies in exchange for RHPs Bradley Blalock ($1.9M) and Yujanyer Herrera ($1.7M)

In a rare sign of good process by Colorado, Mears was a 2023 waiver claim who now gets flipped for two actual pitching prospects. The right-hander has the typical bloated Coors Field ERA, but his electric fastball and exciting Baseball Savant page make him look like a shrewd addition for a Milwaukee organization that has historically been excellent at getting the most out of unheralded relievers.

Neither Blalock or Herrera is a blue-chip prospect by any means, but they each have legitimate talent and a chance to stick in the rotation - and given their home ballpark, it’s crucial for the Rockies to be able to develop starting pitching internally. Blalock made a big league cameo earlier this year, though he hasn’t reached Triple-A and could likely use another year or two of minor league seasoning.

Chicago Cubs acquire RHP Nate Pearson ($0.1M) from the Toronto Blue Jays in exchange for IF Josh Rivera ($1.4M) and OF Yohendrick Pinango ($1.0M)

Pearson is perhaps the next Hunter Harvey, a former top pitching prospect with huge stuff but a scary injury history and no MLB track record to speak of. He has an option and two additional years of team control remaining, giving the Cubs a little roster flexibility and some runway if he can unlock another level after the change of scenery.

He didn’t come quite as cheap as the model expected, though this is far from selling the farm. Neither Rivera nor Pinango is lighting the world on fire at Double-A, and the latter is Rule 5 eligible in the offseason, but they’re both real prospects.

The deal was accepted by our model as a minor overpay by Chicago.

July 26

New York Mets acquire RHP Ryne Stanek ($0.1M) from the Seattle Mariners in exchange for OF Rhylan Thomas (not yet in system)

After adding Yimi García, Seattle needed to open up a bullpen spot, and it looks like Stanek was the odd man out. The Mariners quickly found a new home for the veteran in New York, as the surging Mets look to deepen their own pitching staff. Stanek hasn’t been great this year, but still throws hard and has a lengthy track record of success. The return, Thomas, looks more like org depth than anything else.

Baltimore Orioles acquire RHP Zach Eflin ($17.4M) and cash (reportedly $1.0M) from the Tampa Bay Rays in exchange for IF Mac Horvath ($7.1M), RHP Jackson Baumeister ($2.7M) and OF Matthew Etzel ($1.9M)

To this point the Rays have controlled the trade deadline, and that only continued when they moved one of the best arms available in Eflin. The 30-year-old found another level in 2023, and though he hasn’t quite replicated that this season, his peripherals are still strong. He’s guaranteed $18 million next year, a very affordable price for a pitcher of his caliber. He’ll provide stability for an Orioles rotation that has been hit with injuries this season and is poised to lose ace Corbin Burnes to free agency in the winter.

Like with the Aaron Civale trade earlier in the month, Tampa Bay’s return looks a bit light. Horvath is the centerpiece, a college standout who could be a versatile everyday player. But at 23, he’s a bit old for his level (High-A), and prospect sources are split on his offensive upside and defensive home.

Baumeister, selected just a handful of picks after Horvath in the 2023 draft, has a bit of helium, and is probably the player in this deal whose value Tampa Bay would disagree with most compared to the model. He’s raw, but he’s missing tons of bats in High-A and has a starter’s build. Etzel is interesting in his own right, a 10th-round pick who broke out in High-A and forced his way to Double-A. He’ll likely need to tap into more power to make it as a regular.

In all, the Rays added three interesting and talented prospects, as they typically do. But none of the three is a slam dunk, and they add up to less than the industry might have expected in exchange for Eflin. Tampa Bay has earned the benefit of the doubt, but on paper, this one looks light.

This deal was accepted by our model, but as a major underpay by Baltimore.

Seattle Mariners acquire RHP Yimi García ($1.3M) from the Toronto Blue Jays in exchange for OF Jonatan Clase ($4.1M) and C Jacob Sharp (not yet in system)

In recent years, Seattle’s bullpen has been a machine, churning waiver claims into late-inning arms with ease. That has stalled a bit this year, as the late innings have been uncertain beyond closer Andrés Muñoz and lefty Taylor Saucedo.

Enter García, whose career-high fastball velo is helping him to a career-best season. He’s one of the best rental arms available, and it’s possible the model was a bit low on him. He should be an excellent bridge to Muñoz.

Clase is the prize for Toronto, a 22-year-old who had a cup of coffee with Seattle’s big league team earlier this year. He’s a likely fourth outfielder, but given his age and his tools, there’s more to dream on. Sharp looks like an org depth catcher.

Between García and Arozarena, at this point the Mariners have managed to add two impact big leaguers without moving any of their seven (!) prospects currently ranked on Baseball America’s Top 100 list.

Philadelphia Phillies acquire OF Austin Hays ($0.6M) from the Baltimore Orioles in exchange for OF Cristian Pache ($1.5M) and RHP Seranthony Dominguez (-$0.7M)

In this interesting challenge trade, two first-place teams swapped big league talent in an effort to better shape out their rosters. In Hays, the Phillies add a lefty masher who plays competent outfield defense and has shown in the past that he can be a full-time starter. At worst, he’s an excellent platoon partner for Brandon Marsh; at best, he can lengthen the lineup on an everyday basis.

Dominguez is an obvious buy-low for Baltimore, a former late-inning option with electric stuff and an affordable $8.0M club option for 2025 if he can turn his season around. But Pache is interesting. The former top prospect is a plus defender who can only somewhat hold his own against left-handed pitching and is hopeless against righties. He joins an outfield that was already having trouble finding enough playing time for youngsters Heston Kjerstad and Colton Coswer and a struggling Cedric Mullins. Perhaps Pache is nothing more than a platoon fifth outfielder, or perhaps there’s another move here.

Boston Red Sox acquire LHP James Paxton ($0.3M) from the Los Angeles Dodgers in exchange for IF Moises Bolivar (not yet in system)

With multiple players due to return from the Injured List, the Dodgers made a tough choice in DFAing Paxton. He’s been serviceable, albeit unspectacular, and in a market starved for starting pitching they were certain to find a trade partner.

Enter the Red Sox, one of Paxton’s former teams. They add the lefty on the cheap, as his full signing bonus will be paid by Los Angeles, along with all but one of his incentive bonuses. That leaves Boston on the hook for somewhere around $1.5M of his salary the rest of the way.

The prospect cost was cheap, too. Bolivar is a pure lottery ticket, a 17-year-old international signee hitting well enough in the DSL but without much prospect pedigree.

July 25

Seattle Mariners acquire OF Randy Arozarena ($7.3M) from the Tampa Bay Rays in exchange for RHP Brody Hopkins ($5.2M), OF Aidan Smith ($2.5M) and a PTBNL

As has been the case for a few years now, the Mariners desperately needed offense to support their stellar pitching staff, and they kicked off their deadline by adding a true sparkplug in Arozarena. He got off to a rough start in 2024 but has been on fire as of late, and at his best he’s a difference-maker on the bases and at the plate.

But his value is limited - partially by his subpar outfield defense and his slow start to the year, but largely due to his lofty arbitration salary. He’s a Super Two player earning $8.1M in his second of four years of arbitration, meaning he’s due for hefty raises each of the next two offseasons; we expect him to earn around $12M in 2025 and $18M (as a possible non-tender candidate) in 2026.

In Smith and Hopkins, the Rays added Seattle’s 2023 4th and 6th round picks, respectively. Smith is a toolsy high school pick, while Hopkins is a college arm who’s still learning how to pitch but has his share of admirers. Both players have real upside, even if they haven’t cracked league top 100 lists quite yet.

The Rays haven’t gotten much production from their outfield in 2024 and don’t have a clear replacement for Arozarena. So it appears that, despite being just behind Seattle in the Wild Card race, Tampa Bay has decided to sell off major league pieces, clear off future money from the books and try again next year.

Arizona Diamondbacks acquire LHP A.J. Puk ($8.2M) from the Miami Marlins in exchange for 1B/3B Deyvison De Los Santos ($8.0M) and OF Andrew Pintar ($2.5M)

After a failed attempt to stretch the former first-round pick back into a starting role, Puk has settled back into the bullpen where he belongs. He’s been great since the move, and with two additional years of team control, he quickly became a coveted trade target. He’ll be a true high-leverage lefty for Arizona, which had previously been leaning on Joe Mantiply in that role.

De Los Santos is the prize of the deal for Miami. The slugging corner infielder was left unprotected in last year’s Rule 5 draft and was selected by the Cleveland Guardians, before ultimately being returned to Arizona’s system before Opening Day. Upon his return, De Los Santos lit the minor leagues on fire, and to this point he’s swatted 28 total home runs between Double-A and Triple-A as a young 21-year-old. His plate discipline and third base defense leave a lot to be desired, but there’s time for one or both to improve.

Reports after the trade indicated that the two teams previously agreed on Puk for De Los Santos, and the inclusion of Pintar is what pushed the deal over the line. He’s been injured for much of his young career, but tore up High-A this season and projects as a fourth outfield type.

July 13

Kansas City Royals acquire RHP Hunter Harvey ($10.7M) from the Washington Nationals in exchange for IF Cayden Wallace ($8.0M) and a Competitive Balance Round A draft pick ($4.0M)

One of 2024’s biggest surprises, the Royals made it clear early on that they will be buyers this summer by adding a flamethrowing reliever in Harvey. The former top prospect’s peripherals outshine his bloated ERA, and with an additional year of team control, he was an attractive trade candidate for many teams.

Wallace, a former second-round pick, is a solid prospect who was holding his own at Double-A before an oblique injury put him on the shelf. But perhaps the more interesting part of the deal is the inclusion of the Comp A pick the day before it would be used in the 2024 MLB Draft. The Nationals used the pick to snag Caleb Lomavita, a well-regarded college backstop. All in all, it’s a sign of good process by Washington, which claimed Harvey off waivers for free in 2022.

July 8

San Francisco Giants acquire LHP Alex Young ($0.9M) from the Cincinnati Reds in exchange for OF Austin Slater ($0.2M) and cash (unknown)

The Reds, thin in the outfield and deep in the bullpen, decided to take a chance on Slater, who’s been terrible in 2024 but has historically hit left-handed pitching extremely well for his career. For the Giants, it’s just a cash savings to some extent; Young never pitched for the team before being waived and then claimed by the New York Mets.

July 3

Milwaukee Brewers acquire RHP Aaron Civale ($11.8M) from the Tampa Bay Rays in exchange for IF Gregory Barrios ($1.8M)

The first true summer deadline deal saw the Rays selling off the first of many big league pieces, trading their top 2023 deadline addition in Civale. Despite trading ace Corbin Burnes in the offseason, the Brewers found themselves atop the NL Central and in desperate need of starting pitching, making Civale an obvious fit.

The price made it a no-brainer for Milwaukee. Barrios has some interesting tools, but mostly looks like a slap-hitting middle infielder with little power to speak of. Tampa Bay certainly knows how to identify prospects, and has had success adding power to this type of player in the past, but this still looks like a light return. Civale took a step back in 2024, but with a solid track record and additional year of control in a thin pitching market, one would expect a larger return.

In a way, Civale was forced off the roster in Tampa Bay. With Shane Baz returning from Tommy John Surgery, and the team hopeful that Jeffrey Springs, Drew Rasmussen and Shane McClanahan would return from their own injuries shortly after, the team was left with a good problem to have and could afford to lose Civale.

This deal was rejected by the model as an underpay by the Brewers.