Cubs & Rays
Submitted by: Tradefiasco
Cubs
| Name | Age | Level | P1 | P2 | Availability | Years | AFV | Salary | Surplus | Low | Median | High |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Xavier Edwards | Minors | 2B | 18.9 | 15.1 | 18.9 | 22.7 | ||||||
| Seth Johnson | Minors | RHP | 3.6 | 2.9 | 3.6 | 4.3 | ||||||
| Joe Ryan | Minors | RHP | 11.4 | 9.1 | 11.4 | 13.7 | ||||||
| Yoshi Tsutsugo | 28 | Majors | OF | DH | Medium | 1 | 2.9 | 7 | -4.1 | -4.9 | -4.1 | -3.3 |
Total Value:
29.8
Rays
| Name | Age | Level | P1 | P2 | Availability | Years | AFV | Salary | Surplus | Low | Median | High |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Willson Contreras | 28 | Majors | C | Medium | 2 | 52.4 | 22.2 | 30.2 | 24.2 | 30.2 | 36.2 |
Total Value:
30.2
Comments
10
A package like this for Contreras makes some sense for the Rays, if they're going for it in 2021 (ie: not trading Snell and signing another solid SP). If the Rays go for it, I am curious whether the Rays can leverage the Cubs (Contreras) against the Red Sox (Vazquez). Is there much of a market for catchers making reasonable money on short term contracts? They're not rentals, so I would think there should be a decent market, but only so many teams will want to part with prospects heading into CBA renegotiations. The beauty of this trade is that the cost of Tsutsugo is comparable to Contreras. Rays may actually save a buck or two (million).
I think the Rays would be reluctant to give up Edwards but this is a very interesting and almost perfect trade for both teams
Edwards doesn’t feel right as the main prize for Contreras. The Cubs want to add contact, but that 30-power really stands out in a league obsessed with exit velocity. I think the Cubs demand Shane Baz instead. Question for Rays fans: How do you all feel about Kiermaier? Are you all hoping he gets moved? Or not?
KK owed $26/2 (let's assume the option is moot; no one is lining up to pay him $10M+ in his age-33 year). If you think the ($9.7) is materially wrong, you must believe he'd get something more than $17/2 in the open market. I just don't see it, for a poor hitter on the wrong side of 30 in a league that doesn't tend to pay up for defense (which doesn't have great aging curves, historically). We'll see what Simmons signs for (albeit a better defender *and* better hitter). Or Schwarber/Rosario/Grossman (obviously bat-first OF profiles instead of glove-first, but at some point net runs are fungible). If those guys get big tickets, I'll likely be wrong. But when 1+ war guys like Hunter Renfroe are freely available at ~$3M, I can't see paying triple that for Keirmaier.
I think the better comp is JBJ. BTW - Renfroe was a -0.4 fWAR player last year. KK has never been below 1.3 and that was only because it was the Covid shortened season. Ultimately the Rays value defense a lot more than most of the league. If the league values KK at -9.7, my contention has always been that he won't be traded. The Rays aren't going to give up their 2019 1st rounder (Jones) or any other comparable player to move KK.
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Hoping isn't exactly the right word. Most Rays fans think KK will get traded before ST, and we understand why he needs to get moved. Still, I won't enjoy seeing him in another uniform. Now, that said, none of us think he's going to be traded with a -9.7 value. That value assumes regression next year, when Steamer actually projects a better year, and it supposes KK's performance falls off a cliff in 2022. Possible, yes, but likely? Personally, I expect KK to get moved with a prospect worth 3-6 in trade value and to bring back 1-2 lotto picks from the other side. Assuming KK is healthy next year, there's no reason to think he can't live up to the Steamer projections of 1.8 fWAR. I don't think the Rays will part with any potential TOR pitchers for 2 years of Contreras (ie: McKay, McClanny, Baz, Bitsko, and possibly Honey and Goss). The Rays certainly won't part with Snell for Contreras.
This is a good insight, thank you. I do wonder if Rays fans will be surprised by how difficult it may be to move Kiermaier and his remaining $26m this winter. If the NL loses the DH for 2021, then Kiermaier’s dwindling bat has fewer places to hide in the league. He absolutely has to get on base in order for teams to justify keeping him in the lineup, where his base running and defense push him into positive value. He’s not going to repeat a 12.6 BB% for 2021, and I think Steamer’s projection of 8.0% is likely too bullish. Obviously, Rays fans would value him more highly than -9.7. As a Cubs fan, I value Contreras higher than 30.1. The truth is that both valuations are probably more than fair. The Cubs would need a TOR starter for Contreras. Otherwise, he likely won’t move. All that being said, this trade may simply not happen. The Rays are too disciplined to give up the value the Cubs week. The team who trades for Contreras will be desperate to acquire him and overpay.
As much as the Rays need a catcher, it would be very much outside the norm for the Rays to pay big bucks (in trade value) for only 2 years of control. That's just not how they operate. For that reason, I don't think the Cubs and Rays will agree to a trade of Contreras. I know a lot of Cubbies want to move Contreras for a haul, but I think that will be difficult. First, he's only got one year of being good defensively. He has been putrid behind the plate the rest of his career. Second, the 30.2 value assigned by BTV values him similarly to Realmuto, who has a long history of being good at and behind the plate. Of course, if his defensive improvement is for real, then that value isn't far off. Third, and this applies to the Rays attempts at trading KK and Snell too, I think teams are going to hoard prospects this winter in anticipation of labor difficulty and CBA uncertainty at year end. I hope I'm wrong. Couldn't agree more that Rays' fans value KK higher than -9.7. As I said, that value assumes he has a down 2021 and career is over 2022 (slight exaggeration). If that's how the market values him, and it might given his value is in defense, I think the Rays would rather keep him than package him together with a prospect worth 10. There are more than a handful of teams that could really use KK though, including rich teams like the Mets and San Fran. I still think he gets traded. If he isn't traded, then Phillips or Margot will need to go.
I appreciated the dialogue. The Rays solve our problem and return catcher Mike Zunino on a 1-year deal, keeping their farm intact. A very Rays move, but hey, that's why their farm ranks top-5 every year.
kxw - I hope the Rays aren't done working on the catcher position. One trade I proposed recently has the Rays moving one of their closers (Castillo or Anderson) to the Braves for Langeliers plus. Langeliers strikes me as the perfect Rays catcher - insane defense and at least average offense (hopefully better than average).