Guardians & Blue Jays
Submitted by: pezzicle
Guardians
| Name | Age | Level | P1 | P2 | Availability | Years | AFV | Salary | Surplus | Low | Median | High |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Teoscar Hernandez | 28 | Majors | OF | Medium | 2 | 48 | 25 | 23 | 20.7 | 25.3 | 29.9 | |
| Danny Jansen | 26 | Majors | C | Low | 3 | 26.3 | 7.7 | 18.6 | 11.2 | 14.9 | 18.6 |
Total Value:
40.2
Blue Jays
| Name | Age | Level | P1 | P2 | Availability | Years | AFV | Salary | Surplus | Low | Median | High |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nolan Jones | Minors | 3B | 22.5 | 18 | 22.5 | 27 | ||||||
| Zach Plesac | 26 | Majors | SP | Low | 4 | 37.4 | 13.3 | 24.1 | 19.3 | 24.1 | 28.9 |
Total Value:
46.6
Comments
6I personally think Hernandez has more value than listed here, so I think it's closer that what this is saying. CLE gets a new catcher who is better with the bat and still good defensively to pair with Hedges since I doubt they pick up Perez at 7M. They also get a new RFer for 2 years. TOR gets a solid no.4 SP who can eat innings who is still under contract for 4 years and a nice prospect TOR has lots of catcher depth, so the biggest loss is Hernandez, but they would be willing to make a trade of a bat in order to secure a SP probably, especially if Ray walks
I wouldn't disagree that Hernandez could be undervalued here, but if he is then Plesac is too. Sorry, he's better than a #4 unless your staff is loaded. He's a #4 at the very least and you're not getting him for his lowest value. What's good for the goose........ While Hernandez and Plesac may be underrated, Jansen is way overrated here IMO. Offensively he's absolutely atrocious so I'll have to pass. The deal would be Hernandez straight up for Plesac as opposed to Cleveland giving up Jones for Jansen.
I disagree, and I'm also a Cleveland fan (i remember you from other comments). Since 2019, Plesac has a 4.57 FIP. There are 200 pitcher who have thrown at least 100 IP since then. Plesac comes in at 127. By WAR, he is 86. He's basically a borderline top 100 pitcher. Even if you go by a wildly inaccurate rating system of top 30 = no.1, next 30 = no.2 etc, he is still a no. 4, and I wouldn't go by that sort of ranking system anyway since there aren't 30 aces. Each staff might have there own ace, but there aren't 30 aces. There are about 15. He is a number 4. He's a good number 4, but he is a number 4. If he gets traded to TOR, he is a number 4. Ryu, Berrios and Manoah are all better pitchers than him. As for Jansen, he isn't offensively atrocious. He is a career .300 wOBA hitter and he just put up a .329 wOBA last year. That's basically league average, especially as a defensively gifted catcher. That is far from atrocious. Hedges and his 40 WRC+ is atrocious.
This is personally how I think of pitchers, and I've based this on FIP stats since 2019: Ace: There are 12 pitchers who has put up a sub 3.05 FIP since 2019. The gap between 12 and 13 (Wheeler and Buehler) is 0.15 FIP. There are 7 more pitchers that fall into 3.20 to 3.33 territory. This is a big tier, but part of that reason is because DeGrom and Burnes both have FIP down around 2.25, while the next best pitcher, Scherzer has a FIP of like 2.85. You could instead go; 1a - DeGrom and Burnes 1b - 10 pitchers ranging in FIP from 2.84-3.04 1c - 7 pitchers ranging in FIP from 3.20-3.33 No. 2: We start at the 20th best pitcher, Ryu, with a FIP of 3.46. The 1b and 1c tiers cover about 0.50 FIP inclusive. That's too large imo for this tier, and it makes sense as there is no one that fits between 3.04 and 3.20, so there is a big gap there. I'm gonna take out about 0.15 from this tier, and say it goes from 3.46 to 3.85. That's 34 pitchers. A solid number 2 should fall into that FIP territory, and it makes sense as the last guy, Bassit, has a FIP of 3.84, and the next tier starts with Zac Gallen at 3.92. There is a nice little gap there to delineate tiers. No. 3: Gallen is the 54th best pitcher by FIP. We start at 3.92 and go to about 4.36. That's a similar sized gap, and there is a nice break again between no.99 Brad Keller at 4.36 and no. 100 Rick Porcello at 4.41. It also makes sense as well that there are a solid number of no.3 pitchers, since they are the definition of mid tier pitcher. Plesac will fit nicely into the next tier
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Teoscar is estimated to make $25M in his final two arb years. We have his surplus at $25M, so we're essentially saying he's worth $50M over those two years in free agency, or an AAV of $25M per year. He's a COF power bat, and those types typically don't get much more than that. FWIW, Steamer projects him for 1.7 fWAR for 2022. If anything, we're too high.
Oh I know how the formula works. You're estimating about 6 WAR over his final two years, I personally think that's a bit light given what he has done over his last 800 PA as a 27/28 year old. Not a lot, but a bit, which bridges the gap. I also think that Steamer projection is absolute garbage considering he has put up about 4 WAR each of the last 2 years, and they are somehow projecting that his wOBA drops by like 35 points. He has been a .295/.345/.538 hitter over his last 800 PA. I don't see it personally, they are basically projecting that he puts up a line that is basically his overall average of his entire career, which I don't see how you can project that when half of his career he has been a .380 wOBA player (the half that matter most too)