Dodgers & Reds
Submitted by: rhayex
Dodgers
| Name | Age | Level | P1 | P2 | Availability | Years | AFV | Salary | Surplus | Low | Median | High |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luis Castillo | 29 | Majors | SP | High | 1.5 | 53.2 | 14.7 | 38.5 | 30.8 | 38.5 | 46.3 |
Total Value:
38.5
Reds
| Name | Age | Level | P1 | P2 | Availability | Years | AFV | Salary | Surplus | Low | Median | High |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maddux Bruns | Minors | LHP | 6.9 | 5.5 | 6.9 | 8.3 | ||||||
| Carlos Duran | Minors | RHP | 1.8 | 1.4 | 1.8 | 2.2 | ||||||
| Jesus Galiz | Minors | C | 1.7 | 1.3 | 1.7 | 2.1 | ||||||
| Edgardo Henriquez | Minors | RHP | 2.5 | 2 | 2.5 | 3 | ||||||
| Maximo Martinez | Minors | RHP | 1.5 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 1.8 | ||||||
| Andy Pages | Minors | OF | 25.3 | 20.2 | 25.3 | 30.4 |
Total Value:
39.7
Comments
3Keep adding turds to the pile, and all you'll have is more turds. Castillo should net 2 top 100 prospects (Busch, Pages) and another interesting piece, like Gavin Stone.
In this trade, the Reds give up Castillo for Andy Pages as a headliner followed by 4 interesting lottery ticket arms and a likely future major league catcher. To start: Andy Pages. The Dodgers have reportedly had him available in trades for the last year or so. His minor league numbers are incredible, but he reportedly has some hittability issues (altho given his stats, I find that hard to believe). He'd be the headliner returning to the Reds. Bruns is the Dodgers first rounder from 2021. He has great stuff, including a fastball that hits 98 mph. In single-a he's struck out the world while also walking almost 9 per 9 innings. He has starter-caliber stuff, but his control issues might keep him from reaching his potential. This is an archetype that the Reds have gravitated to, with guys like Joe Boyle and Connor Phillips showing success. The other non-pitching prospect, Galiz is a catcher who reportedly has great defensive instincts and *just enough* physical tools that there's a chance he becomes a solid major-league regular. It's far more likely, however, that he winds up a defensive-minded backup catcher barring unforeseen development with his hit tool. Now, for the rest of the pitchers. Duran, Henriquez, and Martinez are all a product of the Dodgers absolutely insane pitching development system; while a dime a dozen for the Dodgers, these teenagers would all rank around the top 15-20 in most organizations. They're all high velo, high spin rate development projects. All of them have definite relief and bust risk, but also have great upside. This is an interesting trade; I don't know how it would pan out. On one hand, it could absolutely blow up in the Dodgers face; if Pages becomes a star, Galiz develops a hit tool, and Bruns, Duran, Henriquez, and Martinez all develop to their full potentials it could look like a disaster. On the other hand, there's a solid chance that the Reds get 0 future major leaguers out of this deal as all of the players coming back to them require a significant amount of improvement and their player development post-Boddy and Gillman has looked absolutely dreadful. I think ultimately the Dodgers would be happy enough to trade these arms and Pages for Castillo given how fantastic their scouting and dev system is. Pages instantly becomes the Reds #2 prospect after Elly de La Cruz and each of the remaining prospects slots in solidly from 10-20.
NEWSLETTER? SURE, SIGN ME UP!
Definitely disagree on the guys in the trade being "turds". Top 100 prospect lists are literally meaningless except to casual fans; they aren't updated nearly frequently enough to actual have meaning. Even the publication that I trust more (fangraphs) has had errors in Reds prospects due to a lack of updating (for instance, they had Tejay Antone's velocity at 91-93 almost a full year after he started throwing 98-101). Also, where are the Reds going to play Busch? 2B is manned by India; they have Barrero in AAA ready to go once he's fully healed from his hamate injury (ignore his stats, everyone hits like shit for a year after that injury) and McLain in AA. They have EDLC in single-a with Jose Torres. They don't need middle infielders, particularly when it reduces the value they'll get in the overall trade. All of the lower-level arms have very high upside to them; yea, they have risk (they're all teens, after all), but this kind of trade is how the Reds can absolutely maximize their return for Castillo. Instead of two top 100 prospects now, in 3 years they might have Pages on the major league roster and 3 of these pitchers on a top 100 list. Given the Reds struggles to draft as well as their stated intention to avoid free agency, they absolutely *have* to take risks like this. They can't play the same game as everyone else; if lower minors prospects are undervalued by other teams, that's where they'll find their advantage.