GM Override: Real Trade.
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| Name | Age | Level | P1 | P2 | Availability | Years | AFV | Salary | Surplus | Low | Median | High |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Curtis Mead | 25 | Majors | 1B | 2B | 3.4 | 33.1 | 21.7 | 11.4 | 9.1 | 11.4 | 13.7 |
Total Value:
11.4
| Name | Age | Level | P1 | P2 | Availability | Years | AFV | Salary | Surplus | Low | Median | High |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Connelly Early | 24 | Majors | SP | 5.4 | 58.8 | 28.1 | 30.7 | 24.6 | 30.7 | 36.9 |
Total Value:
30.7
I hate Craig Breslow.
Real trade reported by Jeff Passan of ESPN
This real trade makes the site’s values look real bad. Not saying there isn’t an overpay on Boston’s side, but by 20 points?
Mead was a highly ranked prospect, failed through all his option years, was available for free, and then goes to Washington and has a really great half season with the bat. The under the hood stuff looks good, although he's not a bat speed monster. Lots of red on Mead's savant page. Is the breakout this year real? His fielding metrics are horrendous this season, at 3B and 1B. I’m trusting Breslow on electing to move on from Early (who had a rather meteoric rise) but I question the decision to acquire Mead both for his bat and defensive capabilities.
Breslow went full Preller.
Two teams taking a risk on their breakouts being real and sustainable with an extra measure of injury concern for Early (which could be difference in values?).
Possibly. Now, is Breslow done shopping?
I was just thinking the same thing. He very well could be. I’m expecting a relatively quiet deadline, maybe an RP
I’ve got to try and find some positive in this….. Players that have at least 50 PA in each of the four months so far and at least a .200 Isolated Power in each: Willson Contreras, Curtis Mead, Junior Caminero, Dillon Dingler, Juan Soto, CJ Abrams, Shohei Ohtani, Yordan Alvarez, Miguel Vargas. Plus, Mead has the 32nd highest air pull of all right handed batters. Good for Fenway.
White Sox fan here. Would’ve loved to have Early for Mead. Smith is dominating the minors, but we’ll see what happens. Maybe we can fleece Arte and the angels with him?
I think Mead is probably undervalued here, and there is an organizational fit factor as well. Mead has well above average pull-air rates, which will play up at Fenway with an already impressively well-rounded profile. It is a small sample of success, but it's not unusual at this point in the developmental process for guys of his prospect pedigree to find success at his age and service time.
True, but it's still a small sample size. He's also out of options, was DFA'd in March, and is now with his 4th team in two years, so all of that matters as well.
One thing that most people are missing is the RS have several decent pitching prospects but few decent position prospects near coming up. Still a stupid Breslow trade.
KEY POINT: We somehow missed an extra year of control on Mead -- he should be at 4.4 years remaining, not 3.4 as we have here. That correction bumps Mead's value up to 19.2, which closes the value gap a bit. Still an overpay, but quite as dramatically so. Still, Mead's red flags are serirous from a modeling perspective. He was DFA'd a few months ago, after having struggled with multiple teams. His value at that time was 0.2, when he was traded for non-prospect Boston Smith. He has no options remaining, which means if he slips back to his old unproductive form, he'd be a DFA candidate again. The Red Sox are betting that won't happen, and that this new version of Mead is sustainable. It's a risky bet, but given the demand for right-handed hitters on the market, and the relative lack of supply, they jumped the market to get one who they think will stick. The flip side is that the Nats, led by former Red Sox staffer Paul Toboni, are selling high on Mead while buying low on Early. It's a vote of confidence in Early by a guy who knows him well. Lastly, we don't know the medicals on Early. Given the years of control, and the fact that his current injury is not being reported as serious, we are not discounting for lost time, but that's a possible factor. TLDR: It's a gamble by Boston, who needs the bat more than the arm.
Yeah, no doubt this is a crazy bet on Boston’s side. I’d say that this is a heck of a job by DC to take a guy that was DFA’d and turn him into Early. Cheers to Toboni!
Did Paul Toboni just give a masterclass on selling high?
Absolutely.
This one surprised me. That's a pretty high price to pay for a guy with 4 months of success.
I think the values on Clay Holmes and Luke Weaver need to be increased quite a bit based on lack of supply and the quality of their productivity
We've considered that, but we've polled our audience in the past about whether we should bump them up based on factors like that, and 80% said no -- they enjoy seeing where the fair value line is and where the overpays may be. So we leave it.
Baseball graveyards are littered with the bones of former top prospects who have a good 70 games and then go back to who they were. Dom Brown made an All-Star team ffs. I didn't see any of you who are hard timing John today pushing for $30M valuations for Torkelson and Vaughn after they had good half seasons last year. Nolan Gorman had 2 hits in AAA last night. Time to start pushing his value up? Mead was more or less DFA'd by the Rays a year ago, traded for 3 months of a shitty SP. He was DFA'd in spring training after doing absolutely nothing for 3 years in the MLB by a 2nd team. 28 teams didn't want him for a shitty prospect. He's still just as slow and defensively limited as he's always been. His range is the worst 1% in all MLB (AND THAT'S AS A 1st BASEMAN). The Red Sox deciding he's a 2nd baseman tells me they are delusional, and their valuation of Mead certainly doesn't mean John was wrong. Mead's done well, and I'm happy for him, but if someone trades $30M worth of assets for Moniak a week from now, it doesn't mean John is wrong on him too. It more likely means 28 teams aligned with John's valuation, and the Angels did something stupid again.
If Toboni wants to continue with the sell high theme, it would be really interesting to see what they net for Abrams. His defensive metrics are not good, but if he moves to 2nd he should be decent there. And his offensive numbers are off the charts. If they don’t think they can extend him, now would be the time to cash in. Same can be said for Garcia. They could probably have the top farm in baseball if they sell those 2 and griffin.
Mead is out of options, and has been traded a couple times already, by three different teams -- the last time being for Boston Smith (!). Yes, he's having a breakout season, but it's a small sample size relative to his career numbers and profile. Early still has strong prospect pedigree.
What do y’all do when real trades are rejected by your model?
We re-examine them and see if there's anything we missed. It's also important to remember that there are always outliers -- that's totally normal. But for the most part, an outlier doesn't change the approach. We have enough of a track record that one data point isn't going to move the needle overall.
Appreciate the explanation
The Red Sox valued Mead more than anyone else. We don't know by how much, but they won the silent auction sweepstakes that was "Curtis Mead is available". It doesn't mean this site's valuation is wrong. Maybe 28 teams viewed Curtis Mead's trade value was 10M? Craig Breslow being shitty at his job doesn't prove John Blitzer is shitty at his. It took a once in a century 15 game win streak to get this team to a whopping 3 games over .500 on a $200,000,000 payroll. This trade doesn't prove anyone right or wrong.
Hmmm ok…just read the rest of the comments. Never said anything about John, he explained things and they’ve recognized that Mead was missing an extra year of control. The values make more sense now with the correction to Mead. Thanks for stopping by Shaq, now go enjoy your Sunday.
You said "This real trade makes the site’s values look real bad." {sic} And I'm not stopping by. I might have been the first ever subscriber here when it went to paid format, as I subscribed the day it became available. The site is great, and a shitty move by Craig Breslow to overpay for Washington's defensively limited first baseman to now become an insanely defensively limited 2nd baseman doesn't "makes the site’s values look real bad." Only one team paid that price. You show up, make a shitty comment, and then pretend that comment wasn't made. One extra year added some value. It didn't triple Mead's value. You made the statement, I responded. Now you're claiming you didn't make the statement? Scroll up and read it for yourself homey. Does Craig Breslow's desperation make this site look really bad?
One thing I've discovered is that people focus too much on excess value and not enough on approximate future value. There's still a large discrepancy in this case, but focusing only on excess value for trade equality is a mistake in my opinion. Think about it: a veteran who's owed $100.0 but is expected to produce 101.0 in excess value isn't reasonably going to get traded for an a-ball prospect with 1.0 in excess value. I've found I'm getting better trade ideas by matching AFV (if appropriate) and equalizing excess value with prospects.
Surplus value is what determines trade values. Expensive veterans get picked up on waivers because they are good, but being paid to be great. Nobody is trading for Javy Baez's contract. They are weighing his contributions vs his take home pay. That's what excess value is, that's what surplus value is. If you look at future value without looking at salary, you're doing this wrong.