Brewers & Guardians
Submitted by: pezzicle
Brewers
| Name | Age | Level | P1 | P2 | Availability | Years | AFV | Salary | Surplus | Low | Median | High |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Logan T. Allen | Minors | LHP | 9.4 | 7.5 | 9.4 | 11.3 | ||||||
| Tyler Freeman | 23 | Majors | 2B | Medium | 6 | 14.3 | 0.7 | 13.6 | 10.9 | 13.6 | 16.4 | |
| Nolan Jones | 24 | Majors | OF | Medium | 6 | 17.9 | 3 | 14.9 | 11.9 | 14.9 | 17.9 | |
| Zach Plesac | 27 | Majors | SP | Medium | 3 | 13 | 7.5 | 5.4 | 4.3 | 5.4 | 6.5 |
Total Value:
43.3
Guardians
| Name | Age | Level | P1 | P2 | Availability | Years | AFV | Salary | Surplus | Low | Median | High |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hunter Renfroe | 30 | Majors | OF | Medium | 1 | 11 | 11.2 | -0.2 | -0.2 | -0.2 | -0.1 | |
| Brandon Woodruff | 29 | Majors | SP | Very low | 2 | 61.6 | 27.5 | 34.1 | 27.3 | 34.1 | 40.9 |
Total Value:
33.9
Comments
8Gonna just address some things. 1. I think some of the numbers here are off a bit, particularly Plesac, Renfroe and Woodruff. I think Plesac should be closer to 9 (+4), Refroe should be closer to 5 (+5) and Woodruff should be closer to 40 (+6). It puts it at about 48M leaving CLE and about 45M leaving MIL. 2. CLE gets to keep the seat warm for Valera in RF, and Noel at 1B/DH, as hunter is only under contract for 1 year. He adds significant power from the right side that CLE needs. Woodruff slides into the No.2 spot and makes the top 3 much better. He is also an additional "almost ace" that you can pair with Beiber for 2 years and is another option to try and extend. He also is keeping the seat warm so to speak for the next glut of pitching prospects that CLE has coming in Espino, Williams, Bibee. It clears out some of the excess in CLE as well by getting rid of Jones and Freeman. 3. Freeman can slide into 3B as Brosseau isn't good against RHP. At worse it can be a platoon with him there, and at best, Freeman can hopefully slap hit his way into a starting role. He can slide into a UTIL INF if Turang shows up at some point in 23/24 and hits his way into the fold, but he has a solid floor in case that doesn't happen. Jones can play RF and they can see if they want to try and transition him into 1B/DH role to share with Tellez as they have a few solid OF prospects at AAA knocking on the door. Plesac will eat innings and has some value in that, and can provide some stability to the BOR. Allen is a good pitching prospect in AAA that they can add to their young staff and isn't R5 eligible until December of 2023.
Brewers don't want Plesac or Allen. To do this the Guardians would have to come up with some better pitching. The Guardians are looking to peddle Plesac for a reason. He's has been bad for the last two years and is arby eligible. The Brewers certainly don't want him. Allen wasn't much at AAA and little value to Milwaukee. Freeman is a no power 2B/SS. The Brewers don't need him, especially as the 2nd biggest part of the trade. Jones is a good solid prospect, but the Brewers would have to be convinced he can play 3B. It looks like the Guardians moved him to the OF for a reason. The Brewers are well stocked in the OF. There just isn't anywhere close to enough value for Milwaukee for them to trade a good TOR arm like Woodruff and their best hitter in Renfroe.
With all due respect, the Guardians moved Jones to the outfield because Jose Ramirez is their third baseman, not because of a lack of anything regarding Jone.
I honestly disagree with a lot of what you've said. 1. Plesac hasn't been bad the last two years, I always find this narrative to be odd. There are like 180 pitchers throughout the entirety of MLB that are consistently relied upon at the ML level in any given season. Plesac has thrown 275IP the last 2 seasons, and is one of only 80 other pitchers who have thrown over 250IP since the start of 2021. That has value. He is extremely durable and has only spent any time on the DL because of stupid things he has done to himself vs actually getting hurt. Maturation is the only thing standing in the way of him being a 4.50 ERA guy who throws 175IP a year. That is most certainly not flashy, but it is extremely important at the back of a rotation. Greinke threw to a 4.16 ERA/4.71 FIP ball in 2021 and got a 1 year 13M contract from the Royals. Plesac just threw a 4.31 ERA/4.45 FIP season and is due about 3M. He absolutely has value at the back of a rotation. I'm not over here suggesting he is some No.2, but he is most certainly a very solid BOR arm. 2. Allen was fine at AAA once he settled in. He got absolutely roasted his first 3 games, but once he settled in he pitched to a 3.73 FIP the rest of the way. He got lit up a few times, but those times are really skewing his numbers. He's also 24 and it was his first taste of AAA after pitching extremely well in AA to start the year. I think the Brew would welcome someone of his caliber in their minor system considering they have no SP depth of any means at all in their prospect pool. 3. Fine on Freeman, and I think you could replace him with Arias just fine. 4. As was also stated, Jones got moved because of Ramirez, not because he can't play 3B. I think he could play 3B/1B/COF quite well at the ML level.
Good rebuttal Pez and I agree with your take on Plesac. The problem with Statcast, Savant and many others is that they do not value guys that can pitch to contact. Therefore guys like Plesac, Quantrill and Civale are going to be undervalued. When you look around the league at some of the BOR SP, Plesac becomes extremely valuable. Allen is a fantastic SP prospect that has flown through the system. He was drafted in 2020 so last season was his first professional one. Freeman is a good prospect as well for a team that needs a 2B. He's hit everywhere he's been and he plays a good defensive 2B. Having said those things, if I'm Milwaukee I would want another SP prospect back instead of Freeman. It won't be one of the big 3, but maybe another lower level arm or someone like Gaddis.
Allen was a top 100 prospect in 22... He struggled some at AAA, which happens, but he is still a legit Left Handed SP prospect... Cleveland has a guy names Jose Ramirez at 3B and he was promised they won't change his position again, so he's going to be 3B... Jones doesn't have a position now, so RF it is. That being stated, I haven't liked him at 3B, so I think RF is his position with a platoon partner. Freeman, has one of the top hit tools in all of the minors, if he had more power, he likely would be in the top 10 prospects wise. He's going to hit and plays a good 2B. Now, you are the main Brewers person I have seen, so if you don't believe Brewers and Cleveland match up well, Cleveland fans have to that into account. Don't underestimate though the Cleveland prospects... There is a reason why they brought up 17 rookies and have another 10 (5-7 SPs included in that) that could make their MLB debuts in 23, while going for at least the wild card, plus rated in the top 3 farm wise in baseball
NEWSLETTER? SURE, SIGN ME UP!
To your first point: We've bumped up Woodruff to 37.8 -- found a mistake in his calculations. Renfroe was just a minor change to zero, as his field value is basically the same as his arb3 estimate -- he's not a bad player, he's just getting paid what he's worth, so there's no surplus. Plesac is exactly where he should be. His Statcast numbers are ugly (check out all the blue on his Savant page), which matters; and the off-field character issues lessen the demand for his services as well.
That fair. I don't really think the minor shifts I suggested are off base but I also don't think what you are saying is either. I was more bringing it up because I find a lot of people here usually look at the numbers and that is it, and I think the trade is closer to similar value wise than what the numbers initially showed.