Rockies & Rays
Submitted by: ShaquilleOatmeal
Rockies
| Name | Age | Level | P1 | P2 | Availability | Years | AFV | Salary | Surplus | Low | Median | High |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Xavier Isaac | 20 | Minors | 1B | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20.7 | 16.5 | 20.7 | 24.8 |
Total Value:
20.7
Rays
| Name | Age | Level | P1 | P2 | Availability | Years | AFV | Salary | Surplus | Low | Median | High |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brenton Doyle | 26 | Majors | OF | 5 | 40.7 | 19.6 | 21.1 | 16.9 | 21.1 | 25.4 |
Total Value:
21.1
Comments
7
I am not a believer in Xavier Isaac. Immaculate power doesn't make up for insane strikeouts from a slow first baseman. You can't be bad at almost everything, and be a top prospect, and Isaac is bad at pretty much everything. It can eventually click of course, but lumbering first basemen with 40% K rates in AA just don't have much value, young for the league or not. His strength allowed him to succeed against bad low level pitchers, but a 40% K rate is honestly an insane number. I don't have Xavier Isaac in my Rays top 10 prospects list, so this is an incredibly easy trade for me from the Rays standpoint. With the Rays locking up Yandy, best case scenario is Isaac spends 3 years in AA and AAA. I'd rather have the Kiermaier twin for 4 years.
NEWSLETTER? SURE, SIGN ME UP!
I think we will know what kind of prospect Isaac is early this year. He went from being the #1 first baseman prospect in baseball with just a 21.2% K rate to one with a 33% K rate the next year (40.6% in 133 PAs in AA). That’s a pretty big leap and it makes him a far less appealing prospect. I don’t see the Rays trading him while there is still any question what type of player he can be though.
Do you agree with his current valuation here? I think it's ludicrous. Everything about Isaac has a caveat. He looks in great shape...compared to 2 years ago. He's fast...for a fat guy. He's a good defender...for a first baseman. He struck out a ton...but was young for his level. He swings and misses more than almost anyone else in the minors leagues...but when he doesn't he hits it hard. Everything about him needs an asterisk to explain why he's still bad at it. Enough with the excuses. He's still raw, and raw first basemen who got exposed in AA are a dime a dozen. We have soooo many better prospects than him. My top 10 is 1) Williams, 2)Aidan Smith, 3)Taylor, 4)Simpson, 5)Harrison, 6)Morgan, 7) Suarez, 8)Baumeister) 9) Gill Hill 10) Montgomery. Isaac is with guys like Homer Bush and Dylan Lesko: Amazing ability, no skill. If Lesko learns to command his fastball, great prospect. If Bush learns to square balls up, great prospect. If Isaac learns to make more contact, great prospect. Until then, they're all in the same tier to me. We need outfielders, because none of DeLuca, Palacios, or Caballero are young or good. I think Doyle would make a great addition, and relieve the worry of Simpson not being a good defender. Doyle's xWOBA, xBA, xSLG, and barrel % are all well above average, and his defense is elite. He's a stud, and I would grovel at the chance to trade Isaac for 4 years of him.
I had hoped Isaac would be more F.Freeman than J.Gallo, but even a J.Gallo with a mid-30s K rate can be valuable for a stretch. The book on Isaac hasn’t been finished. He struggled a ton last year with strike outs, but he also hit 157 wRC+ in A+ before getting promoted to AA to end the year. He still managed to hit 113 wRC+ in AA even with that 40% K rate. He’s not a bum. He just might not be what we hoped for. As I said, I think we will know pretty early in the season which player he is (ie: Freeman or Gallo), assuming he’s healthy of course, which I don’t think he has been all ST.
I'm down on Isaac compared to a year ago, but I don't want to make it seem like he's entered Brujan or Patino territory for me. I'm nowhere close to there on Isaac and I don't mean to sound like I am. We have an amazingly strong 1-20 on our top 25 prospects, so me saying I have Isaac behind guys like Baumeister and Montgomery doesn't mean I expect Isaac to be out of baseball in 3 years, it means I think Montgomery is the best relief prospect since Kimbrel and that Baumeister will be a stud too. It's not that I think Isaac is trash, it's just that I think those calling him one of the 50 most likely to have a substantial career are ignoring all the obvious flaws. It's interesting that you use Gallo as a comp. I personally don't agree with it, but I'll lodge it into the back of my mind. [New Paragraph] Gallo is so unique. 3 years ago, I was asked "Who is the worst player you would draft #1 overall, if you were guaranteed their career". It was a great question!!!! Next year, you have the #1 overall pick, and you could guarantee yourself anybody, but is has to be the shittiest player you would rather have over pick 2 this year. Who would it be? Really fun to think about. My friend said Adam Laroche. Fair answer, but his caveat was "you have to take Drake Laroche" which I thought was hilarious. If you don't get the Drake Laroche joke, please look it up. Jimmy Rollins told Laroche to get his kid the fuck out, so Adam retired and I think it was Adam Eaton who called an 11year old a team leader. lol. Fuck, those fundamentalists like LaRoche are insane. Anyways, my answer of the worst player I would draft #1 overall was Gallo. A 3 win player who played great RF defense and could fake it in CF. Honestly, Gallo and Josh Lowe, kinda that spiderman GIF. So this is my long winded way of saying you saying Isaac could either be be this MVP 1B who came up as a 3b (Freeman) or worst case this All-Star who can play CF that I would choose #1 overall if a gun was to my head (Votto) is ignoring what I laid out as Isaac's flaws. Unlike Votto, he isn't the best defender in the league (*except for as as said, with the caviat of fat and slow first baseman, he's pretty fast for a first baseman for how fat he used to be).
Damn Shaq! Giving me homework in your post. I didn’t follow the jump from Gallo to Votto at the end, but I think I understand your main point, which is that you see Isaac as a flawed prospect with great potential still; however, you’d rather flip him for a CF asset because of the Rays’ glaring need out in CF (and the reduced expectations for Isaac).
I didn't mean Votto. A wee bit too many St Pattys beers had me thinking Joey Gallo and typing Joey Votto.