Orioles & Padres & Rays
Submitted by: mp2891
Orioles
| Name | Age | Level | P1 | P2 | Availability | Years | AFV | Salary | Surplus | Low | Median | High |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dylan Cease | 29 | Majors | SP | Low | 1 | 47.3 | 13.8 | 33.5 | 26.8 | 33.5 | 40.2 |
Total Value:
33.5
Padres
| Name | Age | Level | P1 | P2 | Availability | Years | AFV | Salary | Surplus | Low | Median | High |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yandy Diaz | 33 | Majors | 1B | Medium | 2 | 45.5 | 22 | 23.5 | 18.8 | 23.5 | 28.2 | |
| Zack Littell | 29 | Majors | SP | RP | Medium | 1 | 12.7 | 5.7 | 7 | 5.6 | 7 | 8.4 |
| Jud Fabian | 23 | Minors | OF | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3.8 | 3.1 | 3.8 | 4.6 |
Total Value:
34.3
Rays
| Name | Age | Level | P1 | P2 | Availability | Years | AFV | Salary | Surplus | Low | Median | High |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Heston Kjerstad | 25 | Majors | OF | 5 | 32.1 | 12.9 | 19.2 | 15.4 | 19.2 | 23.1 | ||
| Round B Comp Balance Pick | 0 | Minors | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.2 | 1.8 | 2.2 | 2.6 | ||
| Michael Forret | 20 | Minors | SP | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5.4 | 4.3 | 5.4 | 6.4 | ||
| Keeler Morfe | 18 | Minors | SP | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.8 | 1.4 | 1.8 | 2.1 |
Total Value:
28.6
Comments
3
A trade like this makes a ton of sense for all 3 teams. MLBTR reports that the Padres might be willing to trade Cease if they got back a LF or DH that immediately improves their team, and a SP who can immediately be added to the rotation. Diaz and Littell check both those boxes. MLBTR also reports that the Orioles are still searching for pitching (DUH!), which is not exactly a secret since their rotation was weak before G.Rodriguez went down. The Orioles need Cease... badly. As for the Rays, well they are the wild card in this trade. Trading Diaz and Littell would definitely hurt their 2025 aspirations and could really hit team morale hard right before the season starts (particularly the trade of Diaz), but trading both makes sense on so many levels. Littell is part of a 6 man rotation that the Rays have said they don't want. One of those 6 is either getting moved to the Pen (the worst option considering how good the Pen is), to Durham to start the year in the minors (not ideal), or getting traded. Diaz is one of the Rays best players, I can't sugarcoat it, but the Rays could also start the season with B.Lowe, Aranda and E.Jimenez playing 1B/DH and promote T.Morgan or B.Seymour mid-season. In any event, with C.Mead playing so well (2B) and B.Lowe needing to keep off the field more and more as he ages while still keeping his bat in the lineup, moving Diaz comes with other benefits apart from just who directly replaces him at 1B. Plus, I can't stress enough how much the Rays need a player like Kjerstad in LF. The net-net of trading Diaz might be positive in 2025 if Kjerstad and Mead play well, to say nothing of the future if they hit their potential.
Fuck. I want to hate this trade. I do hate this trade...I also 100% buy your reasoning. I am in camp Don't-Trade-Littell, and would rather send Baz to AAA, and that's not because of Spring training, but I see the reasoning. I think this is the year to go all in the first half, and move everybody at the deadline if that's what needs to happen. The Rays having so many home games to start the year means spend April,May, June going 100%. Best team possible. No days off. No trading away starters. We play our 70% home schedule, and then evaluate. If we are .500, that's an obvious sell. So for that reason, I'm a no. If we are 5 games up in July with 65 away games, it's a tough decision, but what if we are 10 up? I want to be 10 up while we play 18 more home games than away games. After that, sell the farm if necessary, but not a day before.
NEWSLETTER? SURE, SIGN ME UP!
I think it's going to be an interesting couple of months for the Rays. We have the stadium sideshow, the will-Stu or won't-Stu sell the team sideshow, we have Wander's trial in a few months, we have the 6 man rotation to sort through before OD, and eventually we have the trade deadline. I have not bought into this team like I think you have. I see at least 4-5 possible blackholes at the plate (Rort, Cabby, Deluca, Morel, and Walls) and a couple aging veterans who might not stay healthy and produce all year (B.Lowe and Diaz) and I can't help but think the Rays might find a way to limp into the playoffs because of their pitching, but so what if they do with that lineup. Personally, I want to see the Rays trade for immediate building-blocks for the next run if they can, and I don't much care when it happens. Kjerstad would be a building block. Littell and Diaz won't be here for the next run. My greatest fear though is that the Rays do what you describe (ie: crush it to start the year) because of a heavily weighted home schedule, top pitching, and a division that looks fairly weak this year, and the RFO decides to stand pat or even add short term rentals at the Deadline. That's my greatest fear.