GM Override: Proposed trade .
Have a reason to override our rules? Become a paid subscriber.
Cubs
| Name | Age | Level | P1 | P2 | Availability | Years | AFV | Salary | Surplus | Low | Median | High |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Tucker | 28 | Majors | OF | Medium | 1 | 47.2 | 15.8 | 31.4 | 25.1 | 31.4 | 37.7 |
Total Value:
31.4
Astros
| Name | Age | Level | P1 | P2 | Availability | Years | AFV | Salary | Surplus | Low | Median | High |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Isaac Paredes | 26 | Majors | 3B | Low | 3 | 61.5 | 32.8 | 28.8 | 23 | 28.8 | 34.5 | |
| Hayden Wesneski | 27 | Majors | RP | SP | Low | 5 | 14.2 | 7.7 | 6.4 | 5.1 | 6.4 | 7.7 |
| Cam Smith | 21 | Minors | 3B | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17.5 | 14 | 17.5 | 21 |
Total Value:
52.70
Comments
28greatest moment of my life
Fantastic trade for Houston. Paredes is going to love that short porch in left field.
You think they get Bregman extended? Move Paredes to 1B?
Possible, but I think Bregman is going to exceed Houston’s comfort zone.
Great package for Astros! Lol what an overpay on Cubs end
Get him extended or it’s Bye bye Jed
I'm not sure why Paredes has so much value. Sure, he has a few years of control, but he was awful last year.
Just look at his Fangraphs page. He's put up 10.1 fWAR over the past three seasons, and is projected for 3+ WAR again, has three years of control, and is still only 25, with his prime 26-28 age years ahead. We know his Statcast numbers aren't as good, and that's factored in, but he's still a well-above-average player.
Unless pitchers figure out how to avoid his very specific swing path. Then he's unrosterable.
I can’t speak for his performance with the Cubs but Paredes hit at a 4 WAR pace for 3 consecutive years with the Rays. If Paredes was so easily figured out, pitchers would have done it 1-2 years ago.
Bellinger to Yanks has to be next, no?
I would imagine. It's been proposed that that's how the Cubs plan to accommodate Tucker.
A high price for the Cubbies but I’m ok with it. They are better next year with this deal. Nice pickups for the Stros
Yeah, seems like a great move by the Cubs. Paredes was awful for them last year and Smith is just their #7 ranked prospect. You have to do this if you're the Cubs. That division is wide open.
So much to say. This is an Aroldis Chapman type trade, imo. Massive overpay on the part of Cubs, but probably necessary. Either Cubs win pennant or Jed is out of job, not to mention Cubs fans revolt. The Bleacher Bums will love this deal in 2025, then hate it for the next 5-6 years after Smith becomes perennial All-Star. He has been absolutely terrific since turning pro. I don't mind giving up a stud prospect like Smith for a guaranteed All-Star like Tucker, who can put Cubs over the top. In fact, I'm for it. But was it necessary to throw in Wesneski AND Paredes. You know that Paredes will flourish for Houston. Cubs need a closer as bad as impact bat. Stros have two. Why not ask for Pressly and some cash back in the deal, or swap Bellinger for Hader, while you're at it? Stupid Jed, like stupid Theo in 2016, paid absolutely. top dollar. So you have Soto signing for a trillion dollars. Tucker fetching a haul. I think it is fair to say that Bellinger, who is a rock solid player, has value at @ $50 million over the next two years. Now watch Jed give him away for nothing. If it's to the Yanks for Warren, or someone like him, then Warren replaces Wesneski in the Tucker deal. Meaning Jed is essentially trading Belli, Paredes and Smith for 1 season of Tucker. Meanwhile, the closer mess, not to mention catching situation, is still unresolved. The only saving grace is that the Cubs farm system is so deep, it can absorb the shock. After Matt Shaw, the Cubs have Jonathan Long at 3B, who doesn't appear on BTV. He hit .340 last season at AA and tore up the AFL in the offseason. There is also Triantos. Even if the Cubs win the Division next season, this was a bad trade in the sense that Cubs paid too much.
But don’t you have to ask yourself: if Jed holds fast, and refuses to include Wesneski, would it be worth losing Tucker over that?
BO Here's the point. Breslow goes out and gets Crochet, who is the pitching equivalent of Tucker, for TWO years. He gives up two major pieces and two nobodies. The Cubs give up two major pieces and one nobody (Wesneski) for ONE year of Tucker. Jed is an idiot. Unfortunately, I remember a lot of his stupid remarks. He talks about "looking for value" when shopping for free agents. That's like looking for bargains at Tiffany's. I recall him, when he was with the Padres, saying he is always trying to get the better of a deal. What does that tell other G.M.'S? That they are stupid for dealing with him? He once said that if you make a deal, in means you lose, because you have offered the most in trade. In this case, he is right, because he paid a king's ransom for Tucker. What, if Jed says it's Paredes and Smith for Tucker, and not one player more, the Astros are going to walk? I doubt it. And if they do, fine. Let someone else be the sucker. Quite frankly, as much as I love Tucker on the team, I think the organization is in better shape without the trade. Jed still has not addressed the Cubs biggest need--a closer. I am hoping he can pry Williams from the Yanks for Bellinger, but I doubt it.
You’ve clearly watched his work far more than I have, so I won’t quibble with the general judgment. But when you say, “…if they do, fine”, that’s where I have to take issue. I just don’t think you sweat the loss of a guy like Wesneski when you’re about to land one of the top players in the game. Even if it’s only for a year.
Agreed. Wesneski isn’t the hill to die on if you’re the Cubs and willing to trade Paredes and Smith. This trade (and the original Paredes trade from the Rays) may also tell us that Paredes’ actual trade value is A LOT lower than BTV gives him. I don’t agree with that, as I am a big fan of Paredes, but it’s hard to ignore the Rays are perceived as giving away Paredes to the Cubs and now the Cubs are perceived as giving away too much value for Tucker.
The main case for that is Paredes' Statcast numbers, which paint a different pitcher than his surface stats. We've incorporated them in to a degree, but stopped short of completely revamping the model just for one player. If it becomes more of a thing, then we'll adjust for it.
Give Jed credit for not including Suzuki in the deal. I like Ben Brown and Cade Horton as potential high leverage relievers for the Cubs next year. Arias is another intriguing candidate for late innings. Wicks and Assad will be in the bullpen. Hodge could be the closer of the future. Billionaire Ricketts is too broke to afford trading for Hader. It was time for Jed to shit or get off the pot. I approve of the overpay.
adnielsen, I agree with some and disagree with some of what you said. For as much as I rag on dumb Jed, he did do a pretty good job picking up Busch and Imanaga last year. But he has this belief that relievers are undependable and closers are unnecessary. Which is why he gave 9 mil. to Hector Neris, last year, when all indicators were that the guy was in steep decline. That decision sunk the 24 team. It wasn't lack of offense. The only reason I wouldn't trade Suzki is to curry favor with Japanese players. He sucks in the field. Plus, for some reason he gets the worst calls I ever seen at the plate, which is not his fault. Hodge is not closer material, imo. He doesn't have that one devastating knockout pitch for the job, like Williams change or Hader's old fastball (not to mention hair flying all over the place). Both Brown and Horton scare me. They both seem too susceptible to injury. Tucker is a solid A player. I give the trade a D+./C-.
Suzuki is a fine hitter to have at DH. Maybe he can make further adjustments to cover the outside calls that are going against him. I don’t get why he gets the worst calls, however, he seems to hit best when he’s attacking pitches rather than taking borderline strike three balls.
I would give 1,000 Wesneckis for 1 Tucker, but not after giving 2 major pieces already. To put this in the proper context, my max offer would have been either Paredes OR Smith, not both. Plus, Wesneski (possibly maybe Assad), and a couple lesser prospects. Christian Hernandez, Matt Mervis, Ed Howard, Alexander Canario, etc. Take your pick. I want Tucker, but not as badly as a closer and upgrade at catcher. Quite frankly, it comes down to this. Bellinger versus Tucker. Tucker is the better choice. But he only improves RF by 20-30%, imo. Whereas, let's say, Yainer Diaz would have been a massive improvement 70-80% over Amaya at catcher. Ditto for Hader and Pressly compared to Nate Pearson and Porter Hodge. Like I said, if Hoyer can pick off Williams (or Wells C) from Yanks for Belli, all will be forgiven.
Wesneski has a “plus” strikeout strut
NEWSLETTER? SURE, SIGN ME UP!
FRIDAY THE 13TH BLOCKBUSTER