Braves & Padres
Submitted by: chadsatcher
Braves
Name | Age | Level | P1 | P2 | Availability | Years | AFV | Salary | Surplus | Low | Median | High |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Dylan Cease | 29 | Majors | SP | Low | 1 | 47.3 | 13.7 | 33.6 | 26.9 | 33.6 | 40.3 |
Total Value:
33.6
Padres
Name | Age | Level | P1 | P2 | Availability | Years | AFV | Salary | Surplus | Low | Median | High |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Grant Holmes | 28 | Majors | SP | 5 | 27.6 | 19.8 | 7.9 | 6.3 | 7.9 | 9.4 | ||
Bryce Elder | 26 | Majors | LRP | SP | Medium | 4 | 13.4 | 7 | 6.4 | 5.1 | 6.4 | 7.6 |
A.J. Smith-Shawver | 21 | Majors | SP | 5 | 21.4 | 8.8 | 12.6 | 10.1 | 12.6 | 15.1 | ||
Owen Murphy | 20 | Minors | SP | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5.8 | 4.7 | 5.8 | 7 |
Total Value:
32.70
Comments
4I like this trade, but only if Cease agreed to a minimum of 4/$91M with the 5th year Team Option at $30M. If Cease wants a longer deal, I wouldn't go beyond an 7/$192.5M. If he isn't willing to sign extension prior to trade, the trade would be nullified.
I think this would be a horrible trade for the Braves and I think Cease is going to require significantly more then what you are showing, 7yrs will be closer to $250m, 4yrs $150. Great for the Padres, take the savings a go sign Flaherty!
I have no clue where the $37.5M/year valuation comes from in your response. Max Fried, who isn't quite two years older, received a $27.5M/yr contract (eight-year, $218M), that seemed "staggering". Fried is coming off a $15M final arbitration year contract, which lines up with the valuation not exceeding double their final arb ($27.5M) figure. Cease is expected to pull just over $13M in his final year of arbitration, so I'm failing to see how you estimate almost a 3x boost on a first contract. I'm also not sure who it is you're trying to hold onto from the trade. I really like the possibilities of Holmes, and love the future possibilities for Murphy. But those are "possibilities" that may or may not ever pan out. However, at this point, Shawver and Elder could be shipped with zero concerns of hurting the club. Get what you can, and let Cease, Strider and Schwellenbach (and hopefully Reynaldo Lopez) anchor the rotation for a while, and allow Sale to slide down the rotation as he ages, or let one of the guys fighting for the 5th spot take a shot. BTW, I'm no GM, but I appreciate you offering an opportunity to discuss ideas.
I’m using the sites Future Extension Value for my estimates which I have found to be quite accurate for the most part.