Rays & Braves
Submitted by: nt156211
Rays
| Name | Age | Level | P1 | P2 | Availability | Years | AFV | Salary | Surplus | Low | Median | High |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drake Baldwin | 23 | Minors | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19 | 15.2 | 19 | 22.8 |
Total Value:
19
Braves
| Name | Age | Level | P1 | P2 | Availability | Years | AFV | Salary | Surplus | Low | Median | High |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zack Littell | 29 | Majors | SP | RP | Medium | 1 | 11.8 | 3.7 | 8.1 | 6.5 | 8.1 | 9.8 |
| Pete Fairbanks | 31 | Majors | RP | Medium | 2 | 20.4 | 10.7 | 9.7 | 7.8 | 9.7 | 11.6 | |
| Mason Montgomery | 24 | Majors | SP | 5 | 7.1 | 4.7 | 2.4 | 1.9 | 2.4 | 2.9 |
Total Value:
20.20
Comments
7
Rays need long term catcher. Braves need to find that extra starter with unknown timetable on Striders return and a replacement for Jimenez. Montgomery good depth piece. Both teams get what they need most.
So many people want the Rays to trade for Baldwin because the Rays have a need for a catcher today. I don't see it happening. Baldwin is an unproven catching prospect with a profile that isn't as good as the Rays' own D.Keegan. Baldwin has 1/2 a year in AAA, while Keegan will open 2025 in AAA, so there isn't much difference in their development timelines. Are the Rays really going to trade a cheap SP, a closer and a good young reliever to the Braves for a catching prospect who might top out as the backup to the Rays' own top catching prospect? Baldwin is also a lefty, just like the current Rays catchers - Rortvedt and Driscoll - so he fails to be what the Rays really need - a right-handed catcher.
Lets start with player evaluations. Keegan is rated here as at 1B not catcher. Why? He only turned to full time catcher 2 years ago. At Vandy he was mostly 1B. Not likely he starts the season in AAA if Rays want to continue to groom him for that position. That is why this site rated Keegan at 8.2 vs Baldwin's 19.0 rating. Every list for 2025 prospect list Baldwin in their top 100 while none lists Keegan. Go to performance. Baldwin has a OPS of .800+ for his two full seasons including .891 in 275 AAB's at Gwinnett. Baldwin then goes on to the AFL to hit .943 in another 53 ab. So if I understand you correctly you think the two are close. That is just not accurate. By this sites evaluation or professional evaluators. The Rays would do well to move Keegan to first and pair that with Baldwin's power an OB skills behind the plate. As far a cheap starting pitcher in Littrell, while he has been serviceable the last two years, he now only projects to be a sixth or seventh man in the depth chart. At a projected arb salary of $4.5 million that is pricey for a budget mined team with holes to fill especially with him being a FA next year. Rays have always looked to move players in this position. Adding Fairbanks to the mix who has an option year in 2026 at $7 million will also price himself out. With every metric in 2024 including K rate/hard hit rate/ FIP/ velo taking big dips last season Fairbanks will lose his closer role before the all-star break His value has nowhere to go but down. Again that is why he is rated at this site the way that he is rated. Yardbreaker list catcher and SS as the top needs for TB. Also, TB finished 2024 at 28th in HR and traded away Siri. second best power option for a minor league RP. What this trade does for TB is to give too young hitters to come into their anemic offense, allows them to trade Diaz and all toll free up $20 million between the proposed trade and a Yander Diza trade. Maybe they can Ha-song Kim to play SS and add another OF bat. You have to look at all the dominoes that fall with a trade like this even if according to the site it is a fair trade but you happen to love one guy over the other.
First off, the Rays have never and would never trade 3 productive major leaguers for an unproven prospect. Never ever ever. So this trade is DOA in the real world. As for your post above, let’s go one by one. (1) Keegan - I don’t know for sure, but I bet BTV considers Keegan a 1B because that’s what BA considers him. BTV gives greater weight to BA evaluations than anyone else. They are wrong though. He's a catcher. That’s how MLB and Fangraphs rate him and that’s what the Rays are grooming him to be. It may take longer than another year to get him to the Show, but the prospect “experts” at MLB/Fangraphs see his tools as better than Baldwin. That’s not my opinion, that’s theirs. Check them out if you don’t believe me. You want to talk stats, fine. Baldwin has hit .711, .844, and .793 OPS in his 3 years in the Minors, while Keegan has hit .988, .852, and .806 OPS in his 3 years in the minors. Not that that matters a ton. The Rays prize defense over offense with their catchers, but Keegan has performed as well or better than Baldwin at the plate. .As for his value on BTV, I’m guessing it’s lower than Baldwin because BA really likes Baldwin, BTV has mischaracterized Keegan as a 1B (and 1B have lower valuations overall), and because Baldwin is in AAA while Keegan is in AA. Baldwin is not a universal Top 100 prospect by the way. MLB Pipeline has him nowhere near the Top 100. (2) Littell - I don’t think you understand how BTV works. BTV believes he would earn $11.8MM on the open market. That’s not 6th or 7th starter money. That’s like #3 SP salary for many teams and definitely top 5 for every team but the Dodgers. The Rays may look to trade him because he’s in the last year of control but that doesn’t diminish his value or worth. Rays will demand fair value for him. (3) Fairbanks - I’m down on him too, so I’m not going to waste much time defending him. That said, he had a bunch of injuries last year that might have caused his down year. It’s not a foregone conclusion he isn’t the Rays closer next year if he’s still on the team. (4) Big Picture - If you follow the Rays, then you know the Rays’ priority this season is improving the 2026 and on teams, not the 2025 team. You will also know that cash is lacking to significantly improve the team. The Rays will not be cutting salary to spend it elsewhere and they definitely won’t be swimming in the Kim waters. The Rays will most likely trade Littell and Fairbanks, but it won’t be in one trade and it won’t be for one prospect.
With M.Boyd receiving 2/$29MM, Littell’s fair value is probably around $18-22MM on a one year deal, not $12MM.
absolutely with Jimenez going down and Minter a A they need to add to their pen especially the way they shuttle them to Gwinnett.
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Not sure if you saw but Montgomery was moved to relief cause he was pretty ineffective as a starter, he actually did really well in the bullpen towards the end of the year but saw you mentioned him as depth but didn't know if you meant as a starter or as a reliever.