Rays & Reds

Submitted by: Ms. Dajuba

Rays

NameAgeLevelP1P2AvailabilityYearsAFVSalarySurplusLowMedianHigh
Brandon Williamson26MajorsSP5.151.826.425.320.325.330.4
Logan Tanner23MinorsC0002.522.53

Total Value:

27.8

Reds

NameAgeLevelP1P2AvailabilityYearsAFVSalarySurplusLowMedianHigh
Josh Lowe26MajorsOFLow4.158.530.627.822.327.833.4

Total Value:

27.8

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mp2891

I think this trade is unlikely. On the one hand, the Rays have a starting pitching rotation next year that includes Baz, Bradley, Pepiot, Springs, McClanahan, Rasmussen, Littell and AAA prospect I.Seymour. For my money, that's a top 5-10 rotation next year. Even if the Rays trade Littell in the offseason, which I think is likely because 2025 is his last year of control, the Rays would still have a 7 man group for the rotation, all of whom are as good or better than Williamson. After that group, the Rays would still have other AAA guys who have been on the Rays top 30 list in the past year (e.g., Wilcox, Workman and Rock (though I see Rock as a surefire reliever)), as well as existing emergency options and bulk pitchers (e.g., T.Alexander and J.Lopez). The bigger reason not to expect a trade like this is the Rays' outfield situation. In LF, most Rays fans think the Rays will roll with Morel, Palacios and/or D.Carlson next year. As much as I like Palacios as a utility player, that group playing a position that is traditionally home to a big bat is just downright depressing. At CF, the Rays will be deciding between 80ish wRC+ bats in J.Siri and J.Deluca. Right now, the betting favorite is for Deluca to win that battle and for the Rays to trade Siri, but that's mostly because Deluca is prearb and Siri is expected to make $3.5MM next year. Neither do anything at the plate. So taking J.Lowe away from this group would give the Rays 3 outfield holes to fill in the future to strengthen a position group that is already shaping up to be top 5-10 in the Majors next year. Josh's trade value is also suffering from the poor results from his first half this year (when he bounced on and off IL multiple times and never developed a rhythm (and might have been playing injured) as well as the soul crushing off-the-field issue related to his mom's brain tumor. Add it all up and I think Josh is one of the safest bets to be a Ray in 2025.

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