Astros & Rays
Submitted by: Robbie Hyde
Astros
| Name | Age | Level | P1 | P2 | Availability | Years | AFV | Salary | Surplus | Low | Median | High |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yandy Diaz | 32 | Majors | 1B | Low | 2.4 | 39.7 | 25.2 | 14.5 | 11.6 | 14.5 | 17.4 |
Total Value:
14.5
Rays
| Name | Age | Level | P1 | P2 | Availability | Years | AFV | Salary | Surplus | Low | Median | High |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zach Dezenzo | 24 | Minors | 1B | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 6.4 | 8 | 9.6 | ||
| Alonzo Tredwell | 0 | Minors | SP | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.7 | 2.2 | 2.7 | 3.3 |
Total Value:
10.7
Comments
3
I personally think Yandy’s value is a bit high here. He’s on pace for a 1.4fWAR (0.6 left) this year, and is projected (ZIPS) for 2.5 fWAR in 25-26. Total of 3.1 x $8M is $24.8. Minus the rest of his salary this year ($2.6Mish), next year of $8M, and Club Option for $12M is a total of $22.6M. Surplus of $2.2M. If you don’t do the club option, that’s 2.6 fWAR x $8M at $20.8M. Subtract his remaining $2.6M salary this year and $10M next year, and the surplus is $8.2M.
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Fair points, but 2023 and 2022 still carry some weight in our model, representing more upside potential if his production normalizes. And there aren't many impact bats on the market. That said, the latest development of him being on the restricted list could make him untradeable.
You can't just take his 2024 performance and extend it forward to get his full season fWAR. He's hitting 129 wRC+ since May 1st, after starting out the year hitting just 72 wRC+. Teams gotta pay for the current production. Rays ain't giving away their best players because of slow starts. It's like folks thinking the Rays are going to trade Randy Arozarena for $7MM because he opened the year hitting 37 wRC+, even though he's raised that 37 wRC+ to 107 wRC+ through Saturday and will probably end the year pretty close to his normal 125ish wRC+.