Rays & Phillies
Submitted by: T-Money
Rays
| Name | Age | Level | P1 | P2 | Availability | Years | AFV | Salary | Surplus | Low | Median | High |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Johan Rojas | 23 | Majors | OF | 5.5 | 19.6 | 8.9 | 10.7 | 8.6 | 10.7 | 12.9 | ||
| Mick Abel | 22 | Minors | SP | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13.5 | 10.8 | 13.5 | 16.2 | ||
| Justin Crawford | 20 | Minors | OF | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17.6 | 14.1 | 17.6 | 21.1 |
Total Value:
41.8
Phillies
| Name | Age | Level | P1 | P2 | Availability | Years | AFV | Salary | Surplus | Low | Median | High |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Randy Arozarena | 29 | Majors | OF | Low | 2.5 | 24.6 | 16.3 | 8.3 | 6.7 | 8.3 | 10 | |
| Shane Baz | 25 | Majors | SP | Very low | 3.5 | 46 | 26.6 | 19.4 | 15.5 | 19.4 | 23.3 | |
| Jose Siri | 29 | Majors | CF | Medium | 3.5 | 26.2 | 12.3 | 13.9 | 11.1 | 13.9 | 16.6 |
Total Value:
41.6
Comments
6
Rays may trade expensive players and they may trade guys with limited control, but there is no way on god's green earth they are trading Shane Baz at the Deadline. They'll trade Eflin or Civale or Littell to make room for Baz. Any trade of Siri at the Deadline would require a perfect offer, as he is playing so well right now that the Rays have to be thinking "If he keeps this up the rest of the year, we can demand a fortune for him in the offseason." That said, I really doubt they trade Siri before next year's deadline (at the earliest), as there is no one ready to replace him on the team. Last but not least is Aroz, who I doubt they will trade at an $8MM valuation. So I don't think this trade will work for the Rays.
NEWSLETTER? SURE, SIGN ME UP!
Baz and Mick Abel are more similar than dissimilar. Both are former first round picks out of high school. Baz is older and he's spending his 4th year in AAA. So he doesn't exactly sound untouchable. They both seem like change of scenery guys. Rojas and Siri are both elite defenders. Siri to date, has been better offensively but Rojas has more club control and room for growth. Arozarena for Crawford is a bet on Crawford's upside for the Rays and the Phillies win-now mentality. This trade isn't a complete reach and even though the evaluation is almost dead even if the Rays asked for another top ten prospect from the Phillies to sweeten the deal it makes a lot of sense from both sides.
Baz isn’t a change of scenery candidate and hasn’t spent 4 years in AAA. He’s a “Just came off rehab from TJS and the Rays elected to keep him down for an additional month to gain another year of control” guy. He was in the Majors when he was injured and has burned through nearly 2 years of control rehabbing, but by keeping him down for a little while they get one year of control back. Rays aren’t trading him. He will be promoted just as soon as they trade one of Eflin, Civale or Littell. As for Rojas and Siri, I stand by what I said. Siri has hit the snot out of the ball while playing elite defense the past month. He’s generated like 1.5 fWAR in that time. Rays like him and I can’t see why they would consider trading him for a lesser player right when he’s realizing his extreme talent. I like Crawford a lot and would love to see him become a Ray, but I don’t see it happening like this. What about a straight up 1:1 trade of Aroz for Crawford?
Baz has made just 9 starts for the Rays since 2021 and 31 starts in AA/AAA in the same timeframe. He didn't pitch at all last year as you pointed out because he had TJ surgery. In 10 starts this year he's got a 4.12 ERA and a 1.576 WHIP. 39 hits in 39.1 IP with 44 strikeouts and 23 walks. He's 25 so he may still live up to his draft status or he may never amount to much. Anyway, this site is all about conjecture right? Yes, if I'm the Phillies I'd trade Crawford straight up for Arozarena stick him in LF and play Marsh and Rojas in CF. Then resign Randy in the offseason (after the parade)
Works for me - Aroz for Crawford. Pleasure doing business with you.
Haha! We did it!!