Dodgers & Rays
Submitted by: AlwaysCompete
Dodgers
| Name | Age | Level | P1 | P2 | Availability | Years | AFV | Salary | Surplus | Low | Median | High |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Randy Arozarena | 29 | Majors | OF | Low | 2.5 | 24.6 | 16.3 | 8.3 | 6.7 | 8.3 | 10 | |
| Jason Adam | 32 | Majors | RP | High | 2.5 | 16.3 | 11.5 | 4.8 | 3.8 | 4.8 | 5.7 |
Total Value:
13.10
Rays
| Name | Age | Level | P1 | P2 | Availability | Years | AFV | Salary | Surplus | Low | Median | High |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Miguel Vargas | 24 | Majors | 1B | 3B | Low | 4.5 | 9.2 | 4.2 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 6 |
| Kyle Hurt | 26 | Majors | SP | 5.5 | 14.1 | 6.1 | 8 | 6.4 | 8 | 9.6 | ||
| Trey Sweeney | 24 | Minors | SS | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.2 | 1.8 | 2.2 | 2.7 |
Total Value:
15.2
Comments
4
LOL. Everyone wants Randy on the cheap. As a Rays fan, I just can’t see it happening. They’ll just hold him through the end of the season if this is the best they can get at the Deadline. Speaking of which, I was a big fan of Hurt prior to his injury, but no way would I want him to headline a deal with a shoulder issue. Rays should have no interest in Vargas either. Rays say no.
NEWSLETTER? SURE, SIGN ME UP!
Everyone wants everyone on the cheap. What if the Dodgers told you they were teaching Hurt to throw left handed?
Arozerena has a field value of $2.2m this season and he's making $8m, so these trades aren't really unreasonable. The BTV model is assuming he bounces back next year but that's not a given at all. Don't know what type of return you think he's worth. If he starts off next year slow you'll have to pay someone to take him. Generally when a stock is tanking it's best to cut your losses.
I don't know how field value is calculated, so I can't comment on Arozarena's $2.2MM valuation. However, I do know that for the last 3 years Aroz has hit between 124 and 127 wRC+. For some reason he hit only 39 wRC+ in March and April, and his BTV trade value plummeted from around $33MM to around $4MM. Since the end of April he has hit 131 wRC+, which is much more like his normal performance, and yet his trade value has only gone back up to $8MM. My contention is that Aroz has already bounced back and teams interested in acquiring a COF will ignore the March/April period when valuing Aroz.