Dodgers
| Name | Age | Level | P1 | P2 | Availability | Years | AFV | Salary | Surplus | Low | Median | High |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Randy Arozarena | 29 | Majors | OF | Low | 2.5 | 24.6 | 16.3 | 8.3 | 6.7 | 8.3 | 10 | |
| Jason Adam | 32 | Majors | RP | High | 2.5 | 16.3 | 11.5 | 4.8 | 3.8 | 4.8 | 5.7 |
Total Value:
13.10
Rays
| Name | Age | Level | P1 | P2 | Availability | Years | AFV | Salary | Surplus | Low | Median | High |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Miguel Vargas | 24 | Majors | 1B | 3B | Low | 4.5 | 9.2 | 4.2 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 6 |
| Kyle Hurt | 26 | Majors | SP | 5.5 | 14.1 | 6.1 | 8 | 6.4 | 8 | 9.6 | ||
| Trey Sweeney | 24 | Minors | SS | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.2 | 1.8 | 2.2 | 2.7 |
Total Value:
15.2
Everyone wants everyone on the cheap. What if the Dodgers told you they were teaching Hurt to throw left handed?
Arozerena has a field value of $2.2m this season and he's making $8m, so these trades aren't really unreasonable. The BTV model is assuming he bounces back next year but that's not a given at all. Don't know what type of return you think he's worth. If he starts off next year slow you'll have to pay someone to take him. Generally when a stock is tanking it's best to cut your losses.
I don't know how field value is calculated, so I can't comment on Arozarena's $2.2MM valuation. However, I do know that for the last 3 years Aroz has hit between 124 and 127 wRC+. For some reason he hit only 39 wRC+ in March and April, and his BTV trade value plummeted from around $33MM to around $4MM. Since the end of April he has hit 131 wRC+, which is much more like his normal performance, and yet his trade value has only gone back up to $8MM. My contention is that Aroz has already bounced back and teams interested in acquiring a COF will ignore the March/April period when valuing Aroz.