Mariners & Rockies
Submitted by: Kybowren
Mariners
| Name | Age | Level | P1 | P2 | Availability | Years | AFV | Salary | Surplus | Low | Median | High |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nolan Jones | 26 | Majors | 1B | OF | Medium | 5 | 67.8 | 34 | 33.8 | 27 | 33.8 | 40.6 |
Total Value:
33.8
Rockies
| Name | Age | Level | P1 | P2 | Availability | Years | AFV | Salary | Surplus | Low | Median | High |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harry Ford | 20 | Minors | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 22.1 | 17.7 | 22.1 | 26.6 | ||
| Lazaro Montes | 18 | Minors | OF | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11.9 | 9.5 | 11.9 | 14.3 | ||
| Cole Phillips | 0 | Minors | SP | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3.2 | 2.6 | 3.2 | 3.8 |
Total Value:
37.2
Comments
11Mariners shouldn’t do this trade. Nolan Jones had a great year driven by an ISO power that topped anything he had done before which makes him a clear regression candidate before accounting for his lack of prospect pedigree which gives more skepticism on his ability to repeat what he did. Giving up Harry Ford and Montes for a player who had one very surprising season is too risky. If you are going to part with that pair, it would make more sense to go for Arrozarena or Kwan.
NEWSLETTER? SURE, SIGN ME UP!
Prospect pedigree be damned. Jones did it at the major league level and also has positional flexibility that the other players you named don’t. Kwan is a slap hitter who can only play in left and Arozerena is making money and only under control for two years and isn’t a good defender. Jones is a good defender, has probably the best arm in baseball has power is under control for 5 more years and could play 3B as well.
The Mariners get Jones in a prospect only deal I’d be ecstatic the only prospect I’d be upset with trading is Colt Emerson.
Raley is a similar player who only took Jose Cabellero. Jones could be great fulltime player, but he could also be a one season wonder who crashes (or more likely ends up as a good strong side platoon bat), especially when factoring in the change from Coors to TMobile would be brutal.
He hit better away from Coors last year than at Coors and he has plenty of power and is a left handed bat. There isn’t a lot to suggest he is like Raley at all he is younger than Raley and had a better year than Raley and didn’t really struggle at any point. Also unlike the Raley situation the Rockies aren’t in desperate need for something you happen to have spare parts for since they aren’t really competing for anything right now so the price would have to be high.
And I wouldn’t want the M’s to pay that price. If the M’s make a move at this type of cost point, I’d only want them to do it for Randy or Kwan who have multiple seasons of performance. I just wouldn’t feel comfortable buying into a player having their best ISO power in their career [.245 while in the minors he was normally around .180] in their rookie year (while also having a career K% of nearly 30% and running a BABIP of .401). If we take that type of risk, just sign Bellinger instead without sacrificing 2 top 5 prospects in your system.
I’d argue you are prospect hugging a bit here but that’s your prerogative. I like Jones do I think he is a .900+ OPS guy he was last year? No but do I think he is good enough to be your 3B or corner OF of the future for the next 5 years a really cheap cost and hit 30 home runs a season? Yes I’m very confident that he can do that for the next 5 years.
Fair, but given the uncertainty of where Jone’s true bat level is, this seems like a move you do closer to the trade deadline after finding out if Canzone, Marlowe and Raley are any good and if Jones can repeat his breakout. Also, watching Montes highlights makes it very easy to dream of 40+ homers a year. I wouldn’t want to give up that upside, unless it was a sure fire all star.
Montes hasn’t even gotten to AA yet and his hit tool is very questionable. Sure he has crazy power and is a giant but if he doesn’t develop more hit tool he may never be anything.