Mariners & Royals

Submitted by: kurteger

January 28, 2024

Mariners

Name	Age	Level	P1	Years	AFV	Salary	Surplus	Low	Median	High
Dairon Blanco	30	Majors	OF	6	9.7	7.6	2.1	1.7	2.1	2.5
James McArthur	26	Majors	LRP	5	9.6	7.7	1.9	1.5	1.9	2.3
John McMillon	25	Majors	RP	6	5.7	3.9	1.8	1.4	1.8	2.2
Freddy Fermin	28	Majors	C	6	23.2	13	10.2	8.2	10.2	12.2

Total Value:

Royals

Name	Age	Level	P1	P2	Availability	Years	AFV	Salary	Surplus	Low	Median	High
Blake Hunt	24	Minors	C			0	0	0	3.3	2.7	3.3	4
Luis Urias	27	Majors	3B	SS	Low	2	13.2	11.8	1.5	1.2	1.5	1.8
Kristian Cardozo	19	Minors	SP			0	0	0	0.4	0.3	0.4	0.5
Emerson Hancock	24	Majors	SP			6	7.7	3.9	3.8	3	3.8	4.5
Justin Topa	33	Majors	RP		High	3	14.5	7.5	7	5.6	7	8.3

Total Value:

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Comments

ebragg

January 28, 2024 at 3:23 PM

Why would KC give up four big-leagers for this package?

kurteger

February 1, 2024 at 1:59 PM

Oh and you would be getting 4 guys back, but you'd be getting the best reliever, a guy who could start at 3B if Maikel Garcia is failing to perform or gets injured, while also offering the chance to be a platoon partner with Frazier. Blake Hunt has options and again is a younger catcher than Freddy Fermin. Hancock is better than Lyles and may be better than Singer now, he also comes with upside as a mid-rotation starter or worst case a mid-to-high-leverage reliever. Cardozo represented a guy who could be rostered in the minors without using a 40-man spot. The 4 MLB guys you would be getting in this deal would make your major league roster out of spring training guaranteed, while there's a chance that Fermin is the only guy who makes the opening day roster for the Royals out of the return package.

ebragg

February 1, 2024 at 2:13 PM

Respectfully, I disagree with nearly everything you said. They Royals infield is already incredibly crowded. They have Garrett Hampson and Michael Massey to play as utility players behind Frazier, Witt, and Garcia. They have no need for Urias. Topa is a 33-year old reliver who has one good season in the big leagues. Both McArthur and McMillion are younger, under more control, and have better stuff than Topa. McMillion especially has a chance to be a closer in the future for KC. And Munoz is the best reliver in Seattle, not Topa. Hunt is a solid piece behind the plate, but Fermin will make the Opening Day roster behind Perez. You mentioned Mitchell (19 years old) who is at minimum 3 years away from MLB and Melendez who hasn't caught in a big league game since 2022. He is a full-time outfielder. Lastly, Hancock is the best piece KC would be getting, but he would not make the rotation over Brady Singer. He could slide in over Lyles, but not worth it when you are giving up two future backend bullpen pieces, your 4th outfielder and best pinch run option, and your young, controllable No. 2 catcher. Just makes no sense for KC at all.

kurteger

February 9, 2024 at 12:26 AM

Topa is a high-leverage reliever who could've been the closer for the Royals, as a lefty with a checkered-pass recently doesn't usually work as a closer. The guys who are LH closers include Chapman, Hader, Scott currently and there's always been a very short list historically. The best were Billy Wagner and John Franco, but even then Will Smith is a far cry from that and probably will retire soon, not exactly who you trust late in games. The Mariners would be using McArthur as their 4th or 5th best reliever and McMillon would be fighting for a mop-up role in Seattle. Having around 10 legitimate pitchers on NRIs or expected to start in AAA who could make an impact, this helps the Royals solidify some of those question marks into answers. Dairon Blanco is a nice piece, but he's 30, a short-side platoon against LH pitching or a 4th outfielder. The last guy is Freddy Fermin, who you swap for a younger catcher with starter potential who looks to be a good platoon bat for Melendez or Mitchell when Perez can no longer get behind the plate, which seems likely to happen in the next two seasons. You would've been trading 4 guys on your 40-man roster, but that just creates spaces. When you guys signed Adam Frazier, you literally gave us Samad Taylor for nothing, which is a younger version of Dairon Blanco with more position versaitility.

ebragg

February 1, 2024 at 2:18 PM

And I don't understand the logic on thinking the Royals staff is going to be build off of NRIs. The bullpen is fairly set in my opinion. Rotation: Michael Wacha, Cole Ragans, Brady Singer, Seth Lugo, and Jordan Lyles Bullpen: Will Smith, Nick Anderson, Chris Stratton, Carlos Hernandez, John McMillion, James McArthur, Daniel Lynch, Alec Marsh, and filler/swing guy.

kurteger

February 9, 2024 at 12:49 AM

You are going to criticize Topa's one season of good results, while considering Ragans two months of excellence as some form of certainty in the rotation? Lyles is trash. Alec Marsh and Daniel Lynch are better suited for starter roles and even if their velo ticks up in the 'pen, they would still be low-leverage arms. Hancock is not an NRI, he's the 6th best starter on a team that is getting even money bets to win the hardest division in baseball. Ragans is probably more a #3 than an ace, Wacha and Lugo are both solid #3s, Singer was a #5 in 2023 and might be a #4 in 2024. Lyles should be pitching for the A's or White Sox. The bullpen is trash with McArthur and McMillon being backend options on the Mariners, while only Will Smith and Nick Anderson being the only other relievers who would make the Mariners 40-man roster from the Royals whole staff. Currently Ragans is the only pitcher expected to make the opening day roster who is expected to have an ERA below 4.00 and that's with an expectation of 3.98. Turning your nose up at Topa is just silly, since we've been exchanging these messages, the Twins have traded for him as the second biggest piece for an All-Star 2B in Polanco, as the only more valuable piece was a Top 100 prospect in Gabriel Gonzalez (#79), the other was essential a salary dump in DeSclafani and an organizational arm in Bowen. As for you disagreeing with me, I saw Frazier first hand in Seattle and he needs a platoon partner at 2B. Massey is not good and should get another season in AAA to cleanup some of his hitting issues. As for Urias playing 3B, Maikel Garcia is a stud defensively, but until he learns to elevate the ball, he's a below-average 3B who can't justify his spot in the lineup, no matter how gifted his glove might be at 3B. Just the ability to put Hancock in the #5 role over Lyles is probably 2 more wins over a season. Topa closing out close games versus relying on some hybrid of Nick Anderson and Will Smith in the 9th inning would probably add 2 more wins as well. Urias pushing Garcia and platooning with Frazier at 2B is worth at least 1-2 wins also. When a team is as bad as the Royals, replacing bad players with not good players can raise the floor quite a bit. The problem facing most small market teams is choosing to have 26 legit MLB players or a great lineup, starters, and closer while hoping you rarely need to go to the rest of the bullpen and bench. This helps make the team better. The Royals have built a team with a ton of depth, but trading two bullpen arms with questions, a backup catcher, and a 4th outfielder for late inning reliever to solidfy the 9th inning, a huge step forward at the #5 spot in the rotation, and adding a RH hitting infielder to platoon who can cover 3B would just take out some of the volatility. The Mariners only do this deal to raise the floor of their backup catcher, which is why the Royals get to improve their 2B platoon, their #5 starter, and their closer.

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