Cubs & Guardians
Submitted by: GSon
Cubs
| Name | Age | Level | P1 | P2 | Availability | Years | AFV | Salary | Surplus | Low | Median | High |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shane Bieber | 29 | Majors | SP | Medium | 1 | 18.7 | 13.1 | 5.6 | 4.5 | 5.6 | 6.8 | |
| Emmanuel Clase | 26 | Majors | RP | Low | 5 | 85.6 | 34.2 | 51.4 | 41.1 | 51.4 | 61.6 |
Total Value:
57
Guardians
| Name | Age | Level | P1 | P2 | Availability | Years | AFV | Salary | Surplus | Low | Median | High |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Alcantara | 21 | Minors | OF | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16.3 | 13.1 | 16.3 | 19.6 | ||
| Christopher Morel | 25 | Majors | UTIL | OF | Medium | 5 | 45.2 | 22 | 23.2 | 18.6 | 23.2 | 27.9 |
| Hayden Wesneski | 26 | Majors | SP | Low | 6 | 23.5 | 11.1 | 12.3 | 9.9 | 12.3 | 14.8 | |
| Ben Brown | 23 | Minors | SP | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9.7 | 7.7 | 9.7 | 11.6 |
Total Value:
61.5
Comments
52
Maybe add Aliendo to Cleveland? This deal makes 100% sense from Cleveland's point of view though...
This is a trade Cubs would consider, don’t know what you see in Aliendo but sure you can have him if you want to send us Tanner Burns ..
I just see a lot of “ok” here coming back to Cleveland. I don’t think any of these guys really make a huge impact. My first ask from the Cubs is Cade Horton. If they say no, then fine, but that is the kind of prospect that needs to front a Clase/Bieber trade.
Personally Morel is the main target... He is going into his age 25 season and they say a players best years is the age 27 season... He had 26 HRs from the right side and has played a bunch of positions... I don't see why Cleveland wouldn't be targeting Morel and likely is projected at or north of 115 OPS+... Wesneski and Brown are good enough arms to help replace Bieber and pair with the group Cleveland already has...
This is almost all of Cleveland’s trade capital. I just don’t think these players add to a core that could ever win a championship. It’s just average guys. For this much value I would rather get impact players, even if that just means a couple of younger top prospects. I don’t see the Cubs as a good trade partner, but any trade with them has to start with Horton. If they say no then move on. Other teams need SP and an elite closer.
Brown and Alcantara are both FV of 55 via MLB.com... Morel and Wesneski were FV of 45 in 21... Brown and Alcantara would be like the 5th and 6th ranked prospects in the Clevelands farm system meaning both would be currently in Cleveland's top 20 prospects and I wanted Wesneski when he was in New York and I tried to get Morel last off season... So these guys hit my list awhile ago personally.
Morel is a stud. He's a great get for a reliever, even the best reliever. Morel's batted ball profile is basically Vlad Guerrero.
Cleveland has to get a bat like Morel in a Clase deal for them to even think about it... But they also want a top SP prospect back in the deal from the Rumors and Horton is the only one they have that fits what Cleveland normally goes for since Brown, isn't a strike thrower...
I like it for both teams.
Oh yeah, the Cubs spend all this time, effort and money to finally develop a #1 SP, and he is traded to CLE for a diminishing Bieber and a reliever? Get real, man. Horton is untouchable.
Don't be surprised it Clase stays in Cleveland then... I don't see why the Cubs would trade Horton... Cleveland would have to live with multiple SP prospects over just Horton...
Diminishing may be a bit over stated.. Fangraphs FB Velo tracking during this 2023 season with his pair of injuries showed that his 4 seam velo went from 91.5 mph to 91.6 mph.. That's not diminishing.. that's maintaining.. even with the injuries.. Ask anyone who watched Bieber's last outing of the 2023 season against the Cincinnati Reds about "diminishing" Bieber is older than he was in 2020.. so there is the need to work in the off season.. By getting healthy, this has allowed him to complete a throwing program w/ the Driveline folks.. Unconfirmed FB velos have been whispered that Bieber is back above 93 - 94.. or a couple ticks up & no harder than he was throwing when he was winning Cy Young Awards.. Not hard to believe that a 28 year old can achieve what can only be defined as "not diminishing".. & as a 28 year old.. he's going to be a LOT smarter about how he goes about his business.. In summary.. diminishing is a word that has factual meaning.. & it's not what the media is reporting.... and fans are parroting.. The media is correct in defining the injury issues as chronic.. Bieber had a teres major injury in 2021 after that 2020 season/abortion that was post Covid for these athletes. 2022 saw Bieber as one of a very small number of guys who pitched over 200 IP's and into two rounds of the playoffs.. So.. diminishing sounds like a Madison Avenue "Cause/Effect" means to disrespect what this great athlete has done.. Consider this.. perhaps, there is nothing to the chronic nature of injuries at all for the Biebs? It is more than possible that Bieber is going to hang another 200+ IP while pitching for a team into the playoffs?... Won't be with the Cubs unless they're willing to take a risk !.. BTW.. Bieber already has come back from that same injury.. and the Cleveland franchise & the fans would be thrilled to see it again.. W/R to Cade Horton.. In the "Bleed Cubbie Blue" forum on a story about Clase, in the comments section, I suggested that Horton was a deal killer from the Cubs' perspective.. The Cubs would and should end any further negotiations if a deal had to include this guy. So, Raldaz is correct on that front.. not the diminishing front.. Thoughts?
Dream on. This kind of deal won’t happen. Maybe Morel for Clase straight up. Morel plays second well, can move around the diamond, rocket arm, power, etc. just what Guardians need. His BTV value is meaningless, imo. BTV routinely underrates Cubs players, imo. I can give you endless comparisons. Here’s a few. Suzuki-Kepler. Gomes-D. Jensen. Ferris-Busch (actual trade). Once a player reaches majors, why are you talking about his prospect FV? If want to talk about what players did in the minors, Morel demolished AAA pitching. And we’re not throwing in Alcantara, Wesneski and Brown in for one season of Bieber. Maybe one of the 3, take your pick.
Morel may play many positions, but he is the master of none. Cub fans seem to think that Cleveland is going to give Clase away. Clase is extremely valuable, especially with his very team friendly deal.
Morel though hasn't had a position to focus on and in Cleveland I would bet they would get him a set position like RF rather than move him around...
"Maybe Morel for Clase straight up." Umm no??
No, definitely not. Cleveland has no reason to give Clase away.
Benjo always badly overrates the Cubs players...
Ahhhhh for the love of baby Jesus. You're not getting Bieber and Clase from Cleveland unless you're paying out the wazoo. This package isn't doing that and it's not going to happen nor is it a good idea for Cleveland. Sure, I understand your reluctance to deal Horton, but reluctance usually goes both ways in a major trade where both teams are looking to improve. Take your Cubs' blinders off and think logically about this for once. For what it's worth I don't expect a deal to happen between these 2 teams because the Cubs' system isn't deep enough to deal someone like Horton and Cleveland doesn't take underpays.
Bieber's diminished fastball and last year of control have very little value. At this point, he is no more than a 4th starter (maybe 3rd on a bad team). Clase has value, but relievers in general don't bring back a lot of value, unless they are a high-end closer and there is an extreme need. Clase is a solid talent, but other than being extremely cheap right now, he isn't extraordinary.
The Cubs aren't very smart, so maybe they do it. My only hope is Craig Counsel stops them from destroying their farm system for relievers and rentals. You can look at all the great prospects/young talent they traded away for mediocre talent, short-term rentals, and especially relievers who either were terrible or lasted a few months: Dylan Cease, Eloy Jimenez, Gleyber Torres, Jorge Soler, Isaac Paredes, Jemeir Candelario. I'm sure I've blocked out many more. Half of those players the Cubs have been rumored to be trying to either sign or trade for when they should've just developed the talent.
The Cubs, along with other high payroll teams should always be in Win Now mode. The luxury of both the Cubs and Guardians is playing in mediocre divisions, so if I were a Cubs fan I would be disappointed not going for it every year. As a Guardians fan there is no hope for any kind of impactful free agents, so they must trade for prospects, and all prospects are risky. Take a look at the top 100 prospects from 2019. Great players there, but probably half of those guys just didn’t pan out. To my detriment I probably over value these guys, because that’s the risk small markets (or cheap) teams must do. I still don’t like this trade for Cleveland because I think they can get a better offer, but for the Cubs I think this is the type of trade that betters your team in 2024, although beyond 2024 maybe not.
The basis for the trade is exactly as you've stated at the end of your comment.. "..better in 2024.. yet, not necessarily beyond..." with one caveat: Bieber has stated in response to trade rumors that he would be willing to discuss/add an extension for a team who desires him in trade. While it's not much.. it can be.. Thanks for responding objectively...
I somewhat agree with shb600. Epstein and Hoyer were the most overrated front office of all time. Not totally bad, but not great either. Give a number of GM's an unlimited budget, loyal fan base, and years to develop a talented team, without any expectations to actually do so, and they might be able to do it. It's not that the Cubs shouldn't have made trades, or signed free agents. It's just that their trade record was average at best. For example, the Arrieta deal was a steal. However, Cease and Jimenez for Quintana was a disaster. What makes it worse is that the Sox sent Sale to Boston for Moncada and Kopeck at the same time. Theo never did address the teams need for a reliable closer, except for a half-season of Chapman, which cost them Torres. Solar for Davis didn't cut the mark. Jed still doesn't understand that a lights out closer is a must for any championship team. Jon Lester was a great signing. Jason Heyward deal devastated the teams for years afterwards. Lackey, meh. Another overrated guy, Joe Madden. And the absolute worst--David Ross. Playing over-the-hill veterans at the cost of developing young talent, like Mervis, Velazquez, and Canario, on losing teams.
Your comment was valid several years ago, but not in this decade. The Cubs have consistently turned major league talent into high-end prospects. Start with the Yu trade (Cassie), then progress through Rizzo (Alcantra), Bryant (Canario-Killian), Baez for the prize (PCA), and Robertson (Brown). Now the Cubs bring in a known "development" manager in Counsell and do not sell the farm to acquire anyone of note, when several solid players were available in deals this year. Other than moving Jackson Ferris to the Dodgers, the Cubs have kept everyone. There are too many players for too few slots, so as Shaw, Triantos, Horton and Wicks get more opportunities, there will be young talent available to deal from. I like what Hawkins and Hoyer are building, it is just going to take some time and patience from a city that displays little patience.
It’s a terrible idea for the Cubs or anyone to trade multiple top 100 prospects for a reliever, whose year-to-year variance can be extremely high. Jed has been stingy with prospects this offseason, so unloading this many for a one inning dude doesn’t fit his MO. As Benjy stated, Morel plus a sweetener is more than fair for Clase. Easy no for the Cubbies.
Then the Cubs don't get Clase.
Relievers come and go, often with vastly varying results each year. Remember, the only great thing about Clase right now is his low salary. The Cubs aren't worried about the cap right now, so chasing one guy to slot in with the other power arms isn't a priority. The Cubs find one or two arms a year to take a position. Not only is Merryweather, Leiter and Alzolay dealing, there are other guys ready to take the next step. My guess is Jensen and his 100mph heater.
Typical fan boy, Cubs are dealing while Clase is average. None of the relievers that you named have ever come close to pitching as well as Clase has in his career. Merryweather, for example. pitched reasonably one season and was injured most of the previous 4 years. Even though he was decent, too many men reached base (WHIP of 1.31).
You’re not wrong, but it’s all about perspective. As a Guardians fan I don’t have any urgency to win in 2024 (and based on their moves the team doesn’t either), but for the Cubs there is pressure to win in 2024, and missing the playoffs by 1 game in 2023 only adds to that pressure. Would adding Bieber and Clase shift the odds enough to win the Central or be a Wild Card? Is losing prospects (who may never pan out) worth taking that chance? Who knows, but to me a team in win now mode needs to take a bit of a risk instead of holding onto prospects.
No...."Morel plus a sweetener" is not "more than fair" unless that sweetener is Horton. If it isn't then there simply isn't a deal to be had unless you want to give up one of your better players that are already on your 26 man and fits Cleveland's need. Cleveland has no reason to deal Clase otherwise. I think the misconception here is that you Cubs fans are forgetting that teams have contacted the Guardians about Clase and Naylor as opposed to Cleveland calling teams looking to deal them. Big difference.
Horton is untouchable. The Cubs finally draft and develop a #1 SP and there are people foolish enough to think he will be available. The only time in the near future you will see Horton in Cleveland is if he is starting against you.
MRVICS: "As a Guardians fan I don’t have any urgency to win in 2024." I think that statement just about sums it up. Forget about the fact that the Guardians have a good team and play in a weak division. You may have as well said, "Let's just play a whole season of meaningless baseball. Why try to win now when we have a crystal ball. We can see the future. All our young players will develop into superstars. There will be no injuries. Other clubs in our Division, and around the league, will not improve their teams. Because we are smart and they are dumb. We won't have to make trades or sign free agents. We will win Series forever with our great farm system, like that other small market team, the uh . . . . . the . . . . uh." Hahahahahahahha!
I’m not sure a 76-86 team is a “good team”. I’m being objective about my team. I would rather not put all of the chips in for 2024 and trade for average guys is all. I would rather trade Bieber, Clase, Naylor and restock a diminished farm and have a better shot in 2025 when Manzardo, Brito, DeLauter, Espino, etc. are more established. There’s no money for free agents, so what else is there to do, be mediocre every year? It’s odd to mock someone’s opinion.
See the FO of Cleveland doesn't see things this way... They spent money on Barlow and Hedges, plus their farm is actually still really strong. Don't forget Brennan and Kwan were never ranked before they got to AAA...
Spent money? You’re kidding, right? Is Hedges their big free agent acquisition? I get the realities of being a small market. I do think they can spend more though. To me it’s getting pretty clear they aren’t really pushing to win this year. That’s fine, play the young guys and sort it out, but why keep Bieber, Naylor, Clase? They want it both ways. Either go for it (not doing), or reload/rebuild (not doing). Ok, so be around .500, maybe make the playoffs and lose in the early rounds. Just seems like an odd way to run a team. I’ve seen good teams in Cleveland and they didn’t look like this.
Tell me who they should have signed then in FA? Swapping De Los Santos for Barlow and signing Hedges over Betancourt tells me they are more than willing to spend if the deal is right... They want to make the playoffs in 24...
mrvics: "I’m not sure a 76-86 team is a “good team”. " Dear Mr. Vicks. Texas finished the 2022 season at 68-74. AZ finished at 74-88. Worse than your Guardian Angels in 2023. I don't know if you follow baseball. Those teams competed for the World Title this past year. But they had organizations dedicated to winning now. The Rangers spent money. The Diamondbacks went out and got Moreno and Gurriel. What is with this defeatist-Let's wait til next year-mindset? Insofar as mocking opinions, what are you--a student at Oberlin, looking for a safe place? It doesn't take much looking around this website to find people making fun of other people's trade proposals, especially Guardians fans. But that's okay, doesn't bother me. Contrary to popular belief, I'm no homer. I call out Jed and Carter all the time for their idiocy. However, you guys lap up the Kool Aid that the Cleveland front office sells at the stadium. Your team had a chance last year to go for it and your FO trades Civale for a prospect at the deadline. Sounds as if the city is content with mediocrity. You're entitled to your opinion, but I don't have to respect it..
I thought we were talking about trades on this site. Ok, fine. I’ve given you my perspective and you don’t like it, good for you.
mrvics hat: "I thought we were talking about trades on this site." No, not always. In this thread alone, here are some comments directed at me personally and Cubs fans in general. Sports Coach/"Benjo always badly overrates . . ". Big Bat/"Take your Cubs' blinders off and think logically . . ." Temporary account/"Typical fan boy . . ." GSon/"Fans parroting . . ." Just guys talking smack. No big deal. You don't like it. Tell them. Plus, I am talking trades/team philosophies, GM's, etc. See above. Guardians/Rangers/Diamondbacks/Hoyer & Hawkins.
Plead innocent again. You are never in the wrong. In fact, you started this nonsense much earlier near the origins of this site. You love to poke at others to get them going. Now it is our fault. Look in the mirror, and you'll see where this all started.
The Cleveland guy’s don’t like my takes either, trust me. Also I am no fan of the Cleveland FO. I am quite surprised they haven’t been fired. It’s all good.
I don't share your opinion on Cleveland's front office. Cleveland has one of the best winning percentages in MLB despite being hamstrung by a small market budget under this front office. Try going back to the 1960"s through the mid 1990's when you knew the season was over before it started. It was truly difficult being a fan during those years. Unless MLB decides to fix the tremendous imbalance between large and small market teams, teams like Cleveland will have to be near perfect with their decision making to compete.
I agree about the imbalance and the trades. So how have the trades been going? Not great. They need to win most of these. Recently they’ve traded both Diaz’s, Caminero, Benson, Jones (Brito might save this one), and got basically nothing back. These are (mostly)all-star caliber players. Recent free agent signings of note: E. Rosario, Zunino, Bell, all bad. Drafting, good for pitching, not good for hitting (although, to be honest looking better). This off season has been maddening! Traded away for a more expensive 1 year of Barlow for DLS (who is better IMO), which is ok if you trade Clase and Barlow closes, but that’s not happening. Signed Hedges! WTF is that all about?! So Naylor has a mentor? Why do we tolerate this? Dump Quantrill, a guy who is a perfect #5, just what they need, a guy who can eat innings for cheap. And re-up, PED DFA from the A’s, Laureano for $5.2M. Is that the best they can do? You know, from all of the ‘23/‘24 off season moves (the ones I mentioned), it adds $8.1M to the payroll. That’s damned near 10% of the payroll! Is this a wise use of $8.1M? Not in my opinion. And the MIF mess…SS try outs could have been in 2023, not now in 2024, with Rosario traded earlier, but no, he needed 412 PAs and his trade value to tank before they realized he wasn’t any good. That’s just doing a poor job, and it will reflect on 2024, which isn’t looking too rosy. Too many things adding up that make me unhappy.
Finally, a frank assessment of the Cleveland FO. I didn't realize that Caminero was originally a member of the Cleveland National Guard. Don't worry about not fitting in with other Guardian fans on this site. They say they have connections with the Cleveland braintrust (and I use that term loosely). The story I hear is that a few years ago is was minus twenty on a spring day in Cleveland at the ballpark. There were only 3 people in the stands. Carter Hawkins came down and asked them if they would join BTV and write nice things about the FO. He named them Indian style. Handed 1 guy a a Louisville Slugger and said, "You will be called Big Bat." Handed the next guy his sport coat and said, "You will be called Sport coat (But Coat changed it to Coach) and made the third guy his Temporary Accountant. And so the story goes.
Moi? I started it? Now, seriously, Temporary Account, please answer this question: Are you, Big Bat and Sports Coach the same person? Possibly Siamese triplets? I really wanna know, because you guys sound the same, have the same baseball philosophy, probably dress alike, etc. Also, leave my new best buddy, mrvics hat, alone, cause he's not like you guys. Or I'll come at you with some more Cubs-Guardians trades that you guys will really regret.
Yeah, we're all the same russian spy. Keep posting ridiculously stupid trade ideas, I would expect nothing less from you bud. You're a peach.
I agree Big Bat and Sports Coach are the two most obnoxious users on this site, but, you Benjo, are making a case for the bronze. You’re letting name calling and petty political insults poison your sometimes reasonable arguments.
Sorry Lenin Cat. I'm probably more like the gold standard right now. But when the Trio start throwing shade at my Cubbies, I sometimes lower myself to their level. I say fight fire with gasoline!
By the way, anyone that accuses John B of intentionally underestimating a particular team’s prospects is almost certainly a homer. It’s stupid to think John knowingly applies a penalty to Cubs prospects just because. His valuations are sometimes a little outdated while he waits for updated prospect lists and projections but this isn’t intentional sabotage against any one team. A good example is Matt Shaw. He was valued in the mid teens late last year before prospect updates and now is mid twenties.
Cubs-Cleveland combined for 1 World Series win in something like 180+ seasons...and it was against each other so somebody had to win. "too many afternoon games" "small market".....Cubs had their moment(almost didn't) with Divine Intervention rain delay. Cleveland FO success directly tied to pathetic division with imbalanced schedule and how many 90+ loss seasons by KC-CHX-DET-Minn from 2016-2023 Thanks for asking.
NEWSLETTER? SURE, SIGN ME UP!
Cleveland needs a Hedges replacement and Aliendo will be at AAA in 24 and has a good FV in fielding plus he is a right handed hitter with some pop... He's just the partner for Naylor not a starter...