Cubs & Guardians
Submitted by: yabo17
Cubs
| Name | Age | Level | P1 | P2 | Availability | Years | AFV | Salary | Surplus | Low | Median | High |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shane Bieber | 29 | Majors | SP | Medium | 1 | 17.8 | 12.2 | 5.6 | 4.5 | 5.6 | 6.8 |
Total Value:
5.6
Guardians
| Name | Age | Level | P1 | P2 | Availability | Years | AFV | Salary | Surplus | Low | Median | High |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexander Canario | 23 | Majors | OF | 6 | 6.9 | 3.9 | 3 | 2.4 | 3 | 3.6 | ||
| Michael Arias | 22 | Minors | SP | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.7 | 2.2 | 2.7 | 3.3 |
Total Value:
5.7
Comments
20I think Guardians happily make this deal. I don't think Hoyer ends up giving up 2 controllable players close to MLB ready just for a rental, he's been stingy with his prospects. I think the deal would need to expand to include either Naylor or Clase so Hoyer can get a player back for more than just 1 year of control. Then the Cubs add in an additional player or 2 back to Cleveland. If Hoyer has to give up legit MLB ready prospects for Bieber, might as well just go to Seattle and trade for one of their young controllable arms
Bieber’s value seems a little deflated per this site’s analysis maybe due to his injury riddled season so I could see a bigger return than this. Arias is a nice sweetener but there needs to be a different main course.
Correct -- he was out for 2+ months with elbow inflammation, which tends to scare away teams. He also had a velocity drop and diminished numbers. He's estimated to earn $12.2M in salary in 2024, so if you add our $5.6M estimate in trade capital, it's equivalent to a 1-year free agent deal at around $18M. Given his profile, that seems reasonable as a cross-check.
Fangraphs projects him as a 3.0 WAR player.. or around $ 30 MM.. His 4-seam fastball was higher in 2023 than in 2022.. But he did have an injury.. while still making 21 starts and more innings pitched that Glasnow.. Too easy to subjectively devalue a cy young winning pitcher makes the BTV valuation suspect.. He finished the year strong.. ..and lastly, Bieber is working out at Driveline as a full off season for preparation and, with unconfirmed results, is bringing the heat at 95 - 96.. He's going to stay if these are the paltry returns.. making every talking head claiming he will be traded.. the same as your evaluation.. wrong..
Agree 100% Glasnow given a like 20M valuation and Bieber given a 5M valuation makes no sense when they have similar WAR projections and Bieber makes half the money. Not saying the injury issues with Bieber aren't going to lessen his value, but Glasnow has had injuries basically every year and is always a massive injury risk. If Glasnow is pulling a 20M+ return for a year at 25M Bieber can pull 15M as a half step worse pitcher on half the contract with similar injury risk
Go look at Glasnow's statcast page. The man is elite at everything. Go look at Bieber's. The man is elite at nothing. You're paying for these guys' future, not their past. Bieber probably should have been non-tendered, because his career looks to be in serious jeopardy. xBA and xSLG in the bottom 10%. He and Alec Manoah have a ton of work to do to be anything other than swingmen. With Bieber's salary, I don't think he'd go claimed if he was put on waivers.
Love the trade for the Guardians. Trade in a high priced, high variance asset for two nice prospects. This is a ton of prospect capital to surrender but I think Hoyer would pull the trigger for the Cubbies. Nice proposal.
This is a tough sell on the Cubs side. Bieber isn't what he used to be, and it's possible that Wicks or Assad can replicate what Bieber provides without shipping 9+ years of control out.
Canario is a stud, but I don't think the Guardians will give up their #1 starter for him.
I approve this trade as a Cubs fan. High on Bieber going into next season, especially with a change of scenery. Think he'd shine in a bigger market and under the pressure of a walk-year. Canario is great but with Happ, Suzuki, PCA, and *fingers-crossed* Bellinger in the OF mix next season I would have no remorse parting with him (unlike Nelson Velazquez last season). Would love to see the Cubs go after Josh Naylor in this deal too!
Teams are asking on Naylor, but I don't see Cleveland trading him. Cleveland beat writer Mandy Bell for MLB.com gives the odds of a Josh Naylor trade at only 5%. Cleveland needs to add offense so trading Naylor makes no sense. Arias is also not Cleveland's type of pitcher.
Bieber represents as much of a gamble to the Cubs as do Canario and Arias for the Guardians. He was throwing 91 after his return from injury, not a good sign. Could be the next Syndegaard. Canario raked in AAA and would seem to be a good fit for Cleveland, but he also has injury concerns. Arias throws 100 but converted IF without a lot of mound experience. At this juncture, it seems to be a fair trade. The Dodgers overpaid for Glasnow, imo, so Guardians Can wait through the off-season clear up until trade deadline for a better offer, but then they are taking the risk on Bieber, plus eating salary. I just don’t see anyone giving up a blue chip prospect for Bieber at this point.
Scroll back up and read GSon's post, but nice attempt to talk Bieber's value down. Canario could be the next prospect failure while Bieber is at the very least a #3 SP. This is not a fair trade and Cleveland wouldn't even consider it. Bieber's salary is of little consequence to Cleveland and they are fiscally solid even with DSG collapsing. That's why you saw them adding Barlow's $7.2M and Hedges $4M to the payroll. No, they're not going to be adding any big name FA, but they weren't going to do that anyway.
Throwing 100 miles per hour does nothing if Arias can't control it. 51 walks in 87 inning last season and 87 walks total in 121 career innings. Cleveland likes pitchers with control and that is not Arias. A fair trade is one where both teams benefit from a given trade. This is not a fair trade because Cleveland would likely not have any interest in Arias.
You mean the post about “the unconfirmed results” of Bieber throwing 95-96. I read an article about his work with Driveline. Nothing was said about exact mph. Sounds like Gson trying to talk up Bieber.
NEWSLETTER? SURE, SIGN ME UP!
MajicJacks, do you expect Cleveland to just give Bieber to the Cubs. My goodness. For a trade to happen, both teams' needs must be met. Look at the price of starting pitching for mediocre at best starters. Seth Lugo just got 3 years at $15M per year. Jack Flaherty just got 1 year at $14M. Bieber is better than either one and will likely be paid less than either for 2024. You also have to remember that other teams need pitching as well. Cleveland can and will do better than this offer if they move Bieber. Go after the Seattle pitchers. Wait to you see what they ask for in return.
Then you don't make a trade and resign Stroman / Imanaga or someone comparable and keep your young, valuable prospects if you're the Cubs haha. Not a big deal, not sure why you're getting frustrated. No I don't think Guardians give Bieber up for nothing, I think they trade him for multiple controllable young pitchers and use cost savings to buy a bat. Guardians have no leverage, they can't let Bieber walk next year for nothing. Teams will trade for Burnes, Valdez, Cease, Seattle arms, Miami arms before giving up top 10 organizational prospects for a #2/3 in the rotation rental with injury history and declining strikeouts, in my opinion. We'll see what happens, time will tell.
They actually do have leverage because they want to compete for the division and they can always trade him at the deadline if they are not contending or extend the QO and get the pick compensation, while competing and winning possibly the division. So there is leverage, if he was coming off a fully healthy season they would almost assuredly trade him now, but if the injury concern keeps teams from meeting their desired return they will keep him and try to win the Central
Also keep in mind the Guardians value a defensive minded center fielder, and I think Canario ends up moving to corner outfield. I don't think Canario would even fit into their plans especially since he's right handed. I think they'd rather get Tauchman and do a platoon with either Straw or Laureano and then the Cubs add in a prospect that the Guardians wouldn't have to put on their 40 man roster yet. The proposed trade takes up a 40 man roster spot the Guardians may want to keep freed up
Clearly you have no idea what you're talking about. Cleveland is overloaded with LHH and will have no interest in the middling Tauchman. Cleveland has all the leverage in a Bieber deal because they do not have to move him and if you're not willing to meet their demands then he'll be pitching in Cleveland come April. Nothing you're offering here amounts to a hill of beans for Cleveland. It's an easy, laughable no.