Guardians & Phillies
Submitted by: philliesphan7
Guardians
| Name | Age | Level | P1 | P2 | Availability | Years | AFV | Salary | Surplus | Low | Median | High |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wen Hui Pan | Minors | SP | 2.3 | 1.8 | 2.3 | 2.7 | ||||||
| Johan Rojas | 23 | Majors | OF | 7 | 32.9 | 19.2 | 13.7 | 10.9 | 13.7 | 16.4 |
Total Value:
16
Phillies
| Name | Age | Level | P1 | P2 | Availability | Years | AFV | Salary | Surplus | Low | Median | High |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shane Bieber | 29 | Majors | SP | Low | 2 | 16.4 | 12.2 | 4.2 | 3.3 | 4.2 | 5 | |
| Cash | 10 |
Total Value:
14.2
Comments
10Guardians get young pitcher who's good with control and generational defensive center fielder with more hitting upside than Straw. Phillies get ace to replace Nola. (Cash is a place holder to make the trade valid)
Phillies can keep the light hitting "generational defensive center fielder" because Cleveland already has one of those and the one you're offering doesn't hit the ball hard enough to make himself relevant. We have Kwan and Brennan that are either just as good or better than Rojas with the bat. I'd also be concerned with Rojas small sample as he didn't hit like that in the minors. DeLauter is well on his way and is a far more dynamic player than Rojas so Cleveland isn't going to clutter CF with Rojas. It would be an easy decision for Cleveland to keep Bieber and benefit from his on field performance, make the QO and get the pick. So many around here think that Bieber can be had for the value given to him here and they don't factor everything. You're not getting Bieber with a light hitting CFer and a low A ball pitcher that got absolutely lit up in his A+ debut. Pan also looks like a BP arm and why would any team give up a good player for that when they are aplenty on the open market every season for pennies. De Los Santos for example.
I am okay with the value you believe Bieber is... I have no qualms there... I also like the fact you are trying to address Cleveland's needs and are doing a trade idea, that at least has some sense... Problem is who Cleveland is getting back... Cleveland lacks HR power, especially from the OF. They have plenty of strong defensive OFs... Rojas, struggled in the minors until this season on paper, though he has always been on the young side, so he can get a bit of a slide that way... When it comes to numbers... He hasn't been any better offensively than Brennan in the minors. Plus Cleveland believed in Brennan enough to merit trading Jones and Benson... Now, grading them... Brennan and Rojas, Rojas has an edge on speed and defense, while Brennan has an edge on plate discipline and SO rate... It's not enough to merit trading Bieber for... If Bieber is being dealt, it's for an element Cleveland doesn't have and that's someone with pop... Rojas just does not have that... They need an MLB ready RF with pop and Rojas is more of a 9 hole hitter since he has great speed but lacks BB rate of a leadoff man. I'd for sure take him over Straw on the roster, but Straw is getting sent to the bench. When it comes to the SP... Why is he listed as a SP when he's only been a relief pitcher? He's been finishing games at A ball not starting them. I don't have any qualms getting him, but Cleveland would prefer a true SP with command in a Bieber deal... This deal, just doesn't have the return Cleveland needs... The value is right, just not the return...
NEWSLETTER? SURE, SIGN ME UP!
Aight. I could make a revised proposal but it’s rare that you’re going to see a MLB ready RF with pop that doesn’t strikeout. And if you see him, you’re probably not getting him for Bieber at this point in his career. Now if what BigBat said wasn’t entirely accurate and they’ll take the loss on the strikeouts if it means adding a corner outfielder with pop, that’s a deal that can certainly get done. (Pan was pitching out of the bullpen for the majority of this year to ramp him up for pro ball and he’ll be a starting pitcher next year)
Now, Cleveland is trying to figure things out and they honestly have a team philosophy more focused on solid contact than anything else. They have been the hardest team to SO for the last two seasons overall, but they also have been last in HR power as well, so I am guessing they probably would be willing to trade some SOs for power, but they likely don't want a straight HR or SO type... They would like a decent BB rate as well, since they do prefer a batter who can take pitches/take walks. Ideally what Cleveland is looking for is someone who can play RF at league average, who can hit 25 HRs from the right side. Castellanos, on paper, does make a ton of sense (SO rate may be a bit high, but putting him behind Naylor and in front of Manzardo makes sense), but I don't think that trade would work for either team. They will only trade Bieber for a need and the team only has a couple needs...
If Cleveland is really looking for that guy, I think Carlos De La Cruz is a really good fit. Does strikeout a ton, but walks a lot more than Castellanos and hit 25 homers this year. My only concern with that is that Cleveland would feel like they wouldn’t be getting enough back for a former ace, but idk if we could throw in any MLB role player sweeteners to sexy up the deal.
Whats your take on a guy like Christopher Sanchez? Reliever or Starter? Problem is with De La Cruz he probably isn't ready for the bigs in 24, though his profile is intriguing.
Don’t think it would make sense for Philly to trade a starter for a starter. Not really solving the hole there if Nola leaves. (Yes Sanchez is a starter)
Problem is, Phillies don't really have much that interests the Guardians on paper... Go down the prospect list and go down available guys from the Phillies standpoint, you really don't see a good fit... Ps. De La Cruz, is someone I am sure Cleveland would like to have, but he wouldn't get Bieber by himself... Phillies don't have a good stop gap hitter nor any prospects that Cleveland would like outside of who are likely untouchables from your perspective. Orioles seem to be the most likely scenario for Bieber in my mind right now. Dodgers come in second place, but they have the best shot of keeping him long term...
I don't think there is a deal to be had with Bieber individually. If Bieber is dealt it will probably be a package deal where the team receiving him is also getting some longer term value in an area of need which would allow Cleveland to get better value back. Bieber will not be dumped like Lindor was. The circumstances are different now. Jonathan Rodriguez is a far better prospect thant De Los Santos. If you don't believe me look at the numbers, ages and levels played in comparison. DeLauter and Brito are racing through the minors and tore up AA pitching. Manzardo is likely starting the season in Cleveland. Valera will start the season in Columbus again, but he probably isn't long there. DLC just doesn't bring much to Cleveland even though he has good upside.