Adam Frazier to the White Sox feels like a foregone conclusion, they’re perfect fits for each other. However, it’s tough to see how the White Sox can add a middle of the order lefty bat that isn’t going to hamper the rest of their spending (without relying too much on Colas, of course.) Can the White Sox reasonably take a $12-15m per year risk on Michael Conforto or Cody Bellinger, or shell out six years for Brandon Nimmo? Doesn’t feel reasonable from the White Sox perspective, they may value more of a sure thing at LF. Fortunately, Happ and Giolito look to make about the same in arbitration ($10.5m-$11m thereabouts). The Sox can add their major lefty bat and then try to find similar production to Giolito on the open market (Clevinger, Taillon, Walker, etc.) Meanwhile, the Cubs can take a risk on a lefty hitter like Conforto or Bellinger and see if a change of scenery can get Giolito back on track. Though Happ was the better player valuewise last year, the Cubs get to send Happ at his peak value and add a midrotation SP with ace upside.

I don't think Cubs do this honestly. Both 1 yr left with similar arb numbers, but Happ just had an incredible season, while Giolito looked terrible and is hoping for a big bounce back. And don't Cubs want to extend Happ? Sox might not even do it either. They would probably feel better going somewhat cheap in LF and hoping for a Giolito bounce back, than go cheap in FA on 2 SP. Also Frazier looks very unlikely for the Sox at his projected AAV on Fangraphs and Spotrac. They'll go internal there most likely. I want Cavan Biggio but who knows if he's available.