Cubs & Red Sox
Submitted by: kxw
Cubs
| Name | Age | Level | P1 | P2 | Availability | Years | AFV | Salary | Surplus | Low | Median | High |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rafael Devers | 25 | Majors | 3B | Low | 1 | 53.9 | 16.9 | 37 | 29.6 | 37 | 44.4 | |
| Chris Sale | 33 | Majors | SP | Medium | 3 | 34.6 | 47.6 | -13 | -15.6 | -13 | -10.4 |
Total Value:
24
Red Sox
| Name | Age | Level | P1 | P2 | Availability | Years | AFV | Salary | Surplus | Low | Median | High |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Hendricks | 32 | Majors | SP | Medium | 2 | 7.6 | 15.5 | -7.9 | -9.7 | -7.9 | -6.1 | |
| Caleb Kilian | Minors | RHP | 5.6 | 4.5 | 5.6 | 6.7 | ||||||
| Zach McKinstry | 27 | Majors | UTIL | OF | Medium | 5 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 1.4 |
| Christopher Morel | 23 | Majors | 3B | Medium | 6 | 41.1 | 12.9 | 28.2 | 22.6 | 28.2 | 33.8 |
Total Value:
27
Comments
4The Cubs are looking for lefty power and a cornerstone bat to counterbalance the investment in defense they made through FA this winter. They might as well trade for him now and settle on a lengthy deal at $300m to lock in one of the great lefty hitters of this generation. The Cubs also take on former ace Chris Sale to see if their pitching infrastructure and immense pitching depth can help him find his footing again. Though Sale has a no-trade clause, he may waive it to go to a team that will have a stellar defense up the middle. The Red Sox, meanwhile, are looking to (a) move Chris Sale off the books; (b) get some significant upside value out of Devers before he goes to FA; (c) find an SS that allows them to push Trevor Story to 2B. This year, Morel showed the upside to be a truly special hitter and defender. If allowed to settle at SS, his combination of speed and arm strength would work well in tandem with Trevor Story. The Sox also add a lefty infielder capable of playing all over the diamond in McKinstry. What’s more, they add Caleb Kilian who has velo on the fastball as well as plus command and a bevy of pitches to start. If the Sox resign Eovaldi and bring back Kyle Hendricks in the deal as depth, they can take their time with Kilian.
NEWSLETTER? SURE, SIGN ME UP!
For the record, this past season, Morel had an OPS+ of 84 outside of Wrigley Field, and an OPS+ of 82 in the 2nd half. On top of that, he played six different defensive positions, and graded out as below average at five of them, including shortstop. In fact, he made 5 errors in 91 innings played at shortstop this year. And if you think that's a small sample size, he made 28 errors in 715 innings at shortstop in the minor leagues, good for a .920 fielding percentage. There's virtually no evidence that Morel can play shortstop at an acceptable level on a full-time basis. The only thing Morel's got going for him at the moment is his age. And Kilian? He's a full year older than Josh Winckowski, only Winckowski's got better numbers across the board at both the AAA and Major League levels. Also, you must have a different definition of "plus command" than I do, because that's not a term I would use to describe someone who walked 71 guys in 117 innings last year. My guess is that this offer wouldn't even warrant a response from the Red Sox.
I think we are lacking necessary context for understanding this trade package. Let’s start with Morel. Sure, Morel carried a 81 wRC+ away from Wrigley, but Home / Away stats are hardly sticky from year to year and I’m not going to read anything into it when his sample size is one rookie year. Hilariously, here’s the breakdown: Home vs LHP: 142 wRC+ Home vs RHP: 130 wRC+ Away vs LHP: 23 wRC+ Away vs RHP: 107 wRC+ Do we actually think Morel will continue to struggle with opposite handed pitchers in away stadiums? Regarding his fielding, here’s the honest truth: No one knows what this kid can do if he stays at one position. As you noted, he played six different positions this year. And as you also noted, he’s young. If he’s allowed to settle at one position, then a team could really reap the benefits of his plus range and elite arm. The comp on Morel defensively is Javier Baez, it’s that kind of athleticism. Here’s the other context, and really the only reason I thought of putting this trade together: Chad Jennings of The Athletic is noting that the Red Sox are seeking an SS on the trade market and one name that has surfaced is Joey Wendle. He’s been a nice defender around the diamond, but he’s also 32 and his arm is heading toward Trevor Story territory. Clearly, the Red Sox are open minded about finding their next SS. Regarding the Kilian / Winckowski comparison, it’s a bit bizarre. Great teams building pitching depth, so you don’t turn up your nose at one pitcher because you have another one who might be better. You’d rather have multiple talented pitching prospects at the org. And Kilian comes from a long pedigree and reputation for fastball command. In 2022, he started throwing with velocity and movement, so it’s not crazy to see growing pains there. Pitcher development is hardly a straight line, and projecting a guy like Kilian will require a different approach than scouting the stat line. If the Sox would prefer a different pitcher in that value band like Jordan Wicks, that’s fine. My conclusion: If Morel was on the table, teams would be interested. The upside is significant. It would warrant further discussion. We will have to agree to disagree here.
* I'm less concerned about Morel's home/away splits than I am about the amount of swing and miss in his game and my suspicion that the league figured him out in the 2nd half of last season. * Morel has literally never played SS at a major league caliber level. Your Javy Baez comp is based entirely on Morel's athleticism, and there are plenty of athletic players in baseball that can't play defense. The Red Sox have a couple of them already. The track record says he's a sub-par defensive player at every position he tries, except for maybe 2B. * The Red Sox are looking at guys like Joey Wendle because he wouldn't require a long-term commitment. That's part of the reason they let Bogaerts go, and it's part of the reason they didn't get too heavily involved on guys like Correa and Swanson. They feel like they've already got their SS of the future, and they only need someone to keep the seat warm for a couple of years. * Three of the Red Sox' Top 13 prospects are likely to be starters at AAA Worcester this year. Their fourth AAA starter is Josh Winckowski. All four are already on the team's 40-man roster. If this trade were to be made, there's a chance that Kilian could end up as the team's 11th or 12th choice to start a game in Boston. * This trade would force the Red Sox to drop two players from their 40-man roster. Not a huge deal, but that's still two more players they'd lose that the organization valued at some point. * Yes, this trade saves the Red Sox somewhere around $40 million this year. Unfortunately, there's no one left to spend it on. * If Morel were on the table, I'm sure you're right - teams would be interested. I don't think the Red Sox would be one of them - at least not as the centerpiece of the trade for their franchise cornerstone.