Marlins & Reds
Submitted by: rhayex
Marlins
| Name | Age | Level | P1 | P2 | Availability | Years | AFV | Salary | Surplus | Low | Median | High |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Edwin Arroyo | Minors | SS | 19.2 | 15.4 | 19.2 | 23 | ||||||
| Cam Collier | Minors | 3B | 25.5 | 20.4 | 25.5 | 30.6 | ||||||
| Jonathan India | 26 | Majors | 2B | 3B | Medium | 3.7 | 63.6 | 26.8 | 36.8 | 29.4 | 36.8 | 44.2 |
| Noelvi Marte | Minors | SS | 25.8 | 20.6 | 25.8 | 31 | ||||||
| Chase Petty | Minors | RHP | 13.9 | 11.1 | 13.9 | 16.7 |
Total Value:
121.2
Reds
| Name | Age | Level | P1 | P2 | Availability | Years | AFV | Salary | Surplus | Low | Median | High |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sandy Alcantara | 27 | Majors | SP | Low | 4.7 | 196.2 | 69 | 127.2 | 101.7 | 127.2 | 152.6 |
Total Value:
127.2
Comments
4This is a trade that quite literally never happens, but I was looking for possible fits for the Reds regarding controllable starting pitching and the Marlins were one of the first teams I thought of. Marlins obviously value previous Cy Young winner Alcantara extremely highly given how incredible of a contract they have him signed to (5 years remaining at an AAV of 14 million dollars including a team option), as they should. It would likely take a haul similar to this of a current star under team control for multiple years combined with multiple top 100 prospects in Arroyo, Marte, and Collier (Petty is likely a top 100 prospect as well when the mid-season updates start to hit). Meanwhile, the Reds likely value India's leadership abilities combined with flat out not wanting to give up the haul required for a player of this caliber. Marte, Arroyo, Collier, and Petty all have ETAs ranging from 2025-27, which is when the Reds need their next wave to hit as players like India, Stephenson, Lodolo, Ashcraft, and Fraley all hit free agency.
Alcantara has a good contract on him, but he has not been the same pitcher he used to be, which was definetly expected due to his workload in 2022. I think Reds would rather roll with their insanely good young talent insead of a pitcher that might be a risk bet (injury+regression) This trade has in on the right idea tho, Marlins might move their younger starters like Braxton Garret or Jesus Luzardo or Edward Cabrera so they might be more possible than Alcantara
Yea, I agree with your point about Alcantara not being the same this year and the Reds preferring to roll with their current young talent. I actually think they don't add at the deadline even if they're in the thick of the hunt because they have several great starting pitching prospects about to hit the majors in the next 1-2 years in Chase Petty, Lyon Richardson, Connor Phillips and (if he can figure out his control issues) Joe Boyle. GM Nick Krall is also on record as saying they view the organization with the goal of creating consistent, stable winners rather than high-and-low cycles, which would seem to indicate they they view players like Marte, Collier, Petty, etc. as part of their next wave arriving in 2025-26 just as India, Fraley, Stephenson, Lodolo, and Ashcraft all hit free agency. With that said, I think that if a team views Alcantara's issues as fixable and the Marlins are willing to take a hit on his previous value (IE, willing to trade him for less value than he was worth during the off-season because of his issues), then he'll likely get moved this deadline.
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I also forgot to mention that Alcantara's current peripherals are risky enough that I think he's likely overvalued by this site; with that said, the Marlins likely don't move him for exactly that reason (IE, his current value doesn't match up to his upside). His current value is likely significantly closer to a 70 than a 127. Also to Marlins fans, if this crazy trade were to actually happen, India would move to 3rd base which is where he played his entire collegiate + minor league career as an above average defender.