Guardians & Rays
Submitted by: johnbitzer
Guardians
| Name | Age | Level | P1 | P2 | Availability | Years | AFV | Salary | Surplus | Low | Median | High |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Manzardo | 23 | Minors | 1B | 21.2 | 17 | 21.2 | 25.5 |
Total Value:
21.2
Rays
| Name | Age | Level | P1 | P2 | Availability | Years | AFV | Salary | Surplus | Low | Median | High |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Civale | 28 | Majors | SP | Medium | 2.4 | 37.7 | 11.3 | 26.4 | 21.1 | 26.4 | 31.6 |
Total Value:
26.4
Comments
39Of the Rays' Top 100 Prospects, Manzardo felt like the most likely to move given he's blocked and is just a 1B. Civale has some intriguing underlying stuff going on (92nd percentile in FB spin rate, 96th percentile in CB spin rate - https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/aaron-civale-650644?stats=statcast-r-pitching-mlb). This definitely feels like a guy the Rays think they can get more out of. Plus he's under team control until 2026.
As a Cleveland fan, I am confused about this move... I like the prospect we are getting back, but with Naylor at 1B, this move doesn't make a ton of sense...
Naylor is probably a DH. Manzardo is a better defensive 1B. That leaves Bell, who should probably just be traded with dead-money cash to clear the roster spot.
I'd guess that Bell gets the Nick Swisher treatment outta town
Man, you nailed that John!!! Like 20 mins later lol.
Naylor has significantly improved at 1B... I feel like there has to be another deal in the works personally...
SportsCoach.not only do I agree with you but I will say 'this move doesn't make a POUND of sense' , especially for 2023. Antonetti said on telecast today that "acquisition cost" is what deterred adding MLB player. There were "more buyers" ...blah blah Cleveland was half-game back when Civale was traded. Sorry Cleveland couldn't get who they needed and wanted for free. So in summary, Cleveland traded starting SS, starting DH and (currently) #1 Starting pitcher for... an injured starting pitcher on expiring contract, an injured minor league 1B prospect, a veteran 3B/2B who has already been released and young SS/2B head case- prospect. (and the always sought Dave Cash and Don Money)
I like this deal. Manzardo was blocked by Diaz in Tampa and the Guards need MLB ready offense. Manzardo was having a down year in AAA but anything would help the Guards at this point.
My initial thoughts are of disappointment for the return for the Guardians. With our struggles with left-handed pitching, a right-handed hitter made more sense for me. I will wait until the end of the deadline to see the entire picture, but I am disappointed by this snapshot.
Manzardo rakes. Nice return for a 3 starter. Great baseball trade.
Just Manzardo? Did the Guardians shop Civale? Were their other suitor’s, offers?
If it was a straight swap, I'd rather have Westburg of the Orioles... lol
LOL... Just Manzardo. Like Civale is some sort of great prize.
Ray's fan beware. Civale is having a good season. He's do to get injured. This is the time of the season he usually gets hurt. 2 plus seasons of injuries. In 21 he was being talked about Cy Young. 10-2 start. Boom injury. Oblique problems. Strained booty muscle. Finger. Thanks for another left hander. Let's hope he doesn't turn into Jake Bauers. Please look at Civale timely injury history.
This looks like a pretty good trade. Especially since I'm higher on Manzardo than most people are. However, I feel like it's missing something. The Guardians should probably get 1 more Hitter (someone 20-24 on the Rays top 30). Maybe even 2 Hitters outside the top 30 instead.
As a Cleveland fan I am disappointed but not surprised. I can’t believe this was the best option. There was a clear need for a first baseman, but a RIGHT HANDED first baseman! It doesn’t make any sense. Manzardo’s OPS in AAA this year against LHP is .535. To put this in perspective Myles Straw has an overall OPS of .599. Manzardo’s prior years aren’t as bad against LHP (how could they be), but Cleveland already has a LH hitting 1B that struggles against LHP in Naylor. There was talk on MLB Trade Rumors of maybe Naylor moving to RF when Manzardo comes up, which is laughable. Naylor is a 1B/DH period. Manzardo hopefully will be a good player, but team concept wise, this trade is illogical.
My sentiments exactly. The Rays got more value in this deal and the values here support that. I'm not sure where John got that Manzardo is a better defensive 1B than Naylor because that is simply not true. He doesn't move as well and he has a noodle arm. They had him focus on his conditioning in an effort to make him a bit more mobile because he doesn't move well around the bag. Regardless, he's a damn good prospect, but I don't like the fit because Naylor shouldn't be playing a corner OF and everyone and their mother knows that Bell will be picking up that player option because he's garbage. Manzardo being another LHH just adds to the pile of them in Cleveland's system. It's like they're allergic to good RHH prospects. So what happens with Pries now? He started the season of in a slump, but has really turned in on as of late. He's a fantastic defensive 1B and runs well too. Speaking of Pries, John I didn't see him on Cleveland's list.
I agree that CLE could have gotten a bit more value out of Civale, but you guys are overly concerned about the fit. Naylor and Manzardo are on different timelines. Manzardo might get a look in MLB next year, but he probably doesn't come up for real until 2025 when Bell will be gone. Naylor and Manzardo can split 1B/DH for a year and then Manzardo can take over 1B when Naylor is gone, assuming they don't trade Naylor before then Pries is rule 5 eligible and isn't on CLE's 40 man. He's a AAA player who could be a AAAA player, not someone who blocks a top 50 prospect
I think it is a lousy trade for Cleveland. they are 1 game out of playoffs with 57 games to go. how does this trade help 2023. I agree (above) that RH hitter is needed. I hope (above) they have another deal in works to add pitching for 2023. I see trade as PTP move, not Vitale 'Prime Time Player' but "Perpetuate the Promises" . Interesting (above) take regarding Manzardo timeline and Naylor. Not sure I think that way.
Real trade.
As a Rays fan, I like it. Obviously would have preferred a bulk route prospect wise as opposed to our third or fourth best prospect, but we have a lot of first baseman. I'd have been way more disappointed if we'd have traded Aranda for the 4 million allotted to him here, than Manzardoo for a pitcher with 26 million in excess value. Yandy, Paredes, Raley, Aranda, Mead, Manzardo, with Xavier Isaac and Junior Caminero on the way too. The Rays have a ton of first basemen, and not enough starting pitching. Excellent allocation of resources.
:P
I don't do emojis, so I don't know what that one means. Sorry homie. What's your thoughts on the xFIP? The lack of K's, lack of home runs both frighten me. That ERA might go to the moon if more than 5% of his flyballs start to leave the ballpark. Big spin guy. Pretty reminiscent of Drew Smyly. But we got Smyly before his breakout. Pretty uncommon for the Rays to get a player after his breakout.
Oh. I see your thoughts below.... Maybe we'll have similar thoughts
You've touched on all my concerns (see below). Civale is a 4/5 pitcher, which we needed. He's relatively cheap, which is good for future control. The Rays may not have overpaid in the absolute sense but they totally overpaid with a high quality prospect in a 1 for 1 deal. I have no inside knowledge, but I have to think putting a top 50 prospect on the market would have opened doors to higher upside pitchers and/or pitchers who can stay healthy and pitch more than 100 IP per season. I wanted Kopech. Basically, I think we could have done better in a trade of Manzardo, but... the Rays filled their starting pitcher need with a guy who is having a career year (which is a good thing that he's pitching really well in 2023, I'm not being sarcastic with that statement), who is under control for 2 more years, who is cheap, and who has shown real improvement over the past 2 years. If we hadn't traded Manzardo for him, I'd probably be pretty happy with the trade (even if i don't think he's worth $26MM)
Agreed.
Hate the trade for the Rays. Civale has NEVER generated even 2.0 fWAR in a season. He has exceeded 100 IP only once in his career. He strikes out a batter about once every 2 innings. He's having his best year in the Bigs this year, and should help the Rays this year (they have used a bullpen day every 5th day almost the entire season, which has cost them at least 5 wins), but damn... The Rays gave up a top 50 prospect for a #5 pitcher, whose trade value is tied more to his cost and control than his performance. If the Rays were so willing to trade a high quality prospect, why in the world didn't they try to get a pitcher with upside like Kopech??? I hope to be proved wrong by the Rays brain trust, but I don't like this one.
Have you watched him pitch at all this season? Seriously, Guardians fans are all like we gave up Civale for just Manzardo, usually when both sides feel this way it's a pretty fair trade.
I’ve often said that, but it’s not a popular opinion. I agree it’s a good benchmark.
Most likely because Kopech is not available
Don't look at K's per nine. It's a worthless stat. He has basically the best WHIP in baseball (1.04 vs 1.01), so of course K/9 will look terrible unless he was a K machine. His 19% K rate isn't anything to write home about, but it's about the same as Alex Cobb and Jordan Montgomery, players we both wanted. Considering we get the lowest WHIP SP in baseball for the next two and a half years, I'm pretty happy that we only had to give up our 5th or so best prospect, at a position he couldn't possibly win for at least 3 years.
one rays would have to gave more . rays love cost and control. and Civale can keep the rays in games. and rays pitching coach don't get the credit he deserves . Kopech dont agree with cause white sox want someone off main roaster and biding war if was on trade market . going by the numbers Civale is the better pitcher . if it was true what you said Rays were so willing to trade a high quality prospect, . then i be more surprise why rays did not get David Robertson. one cost and did not want a rental.
I'd like this deal more for Cleveland if Manzardo was posting better numbers in AAA. It's possible that AAA in his ceiling, and if that's the case the Guardians will be disappointing. Of course, this year has been so strange for Manzardo as he's sporting a .238 AVG even though he was above .323 at every other level. Who is the real Manzardo? I'll guess we'll find out in the next year or so.
The Rays have really been forcing him to hit lefties. I'll be curious what they have him working on. He might still be that same hitter who's been trying something different to hit lefties better.
Thanks for the Rays intel on Manzardo, I just checked out his splits and it makes me like the deal even more for the Rays. Manzardo is a platoon player against righties, whereas Civale is a solid no. 3.
He's only 22 years old and flew through the system. He's being challenged for the first time ever. I think it's too early to call him a platoon player. Most 2021 draft picks started the year in A ball, while he started it in AAA.
I wish the book on Manzardo wasn't "his 2023 numbers aren't good." Look under the hood guys. The Rays have him facing LHP about 1/3 the time because they want him to learn to hit LHP. The Rays lefty specialist in the Majors is only hitting LHP 25% of the time. I don't know how they've found enough LHP for Manzardo to hit 1/3 LHP. Anyway, Manzardo is hitting North of .900 OPS against RHP. If he was hitting a normal percentage of LHP, his AAA numbers would be fine. Yeah, he needs to learn to hit LHP better to be an everyday player, but he's still young and not even Rule 5 eligible til next year. There's time.
i call this trade on this side and on one other rays board . they all claim it would not happen.. i did not say nothing . but let them have their say. cause i knew rays would not trade randy or from main roster. till the off season.
NEWSLETTER? SURE, SIGN ME UP!
As a Guards fan I couldn't be happier. Like Civale but he was constantly dinged up and we just weren't maximizing his value. We needed hitting and Manzo is elite at the dish.