| Name | Age | Level | P1 | P2 | Availability | Years | AFV | Salary | Surplus | Low | Median | High |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Owen Murphy | 19 | Minors | SP | 3.2 | 2.6 | 3.2 | 3.8 |
Total Value:
3.2
| Name | Age | Level | P1 | P2 | Availability | Years | AFV | Salary | Surplus | Low | Median | High |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shane Bieber | 29 | Majors | SP | Low | 2 | 16.4 | 12.2 | 4.2 | 3.3 | 4.2 | 5 |
Total Value:
4.2
Atlanta needs some rotation reinforcement, Guardians get a recent 1st round pick. High school RHP, so basically a lottery ticket.
Do you really think Cleveland would do this? What would be the point? Would they prefer a "lottery ticket" that was just drafted or keep a very good SP as they approach their contention window that could very well be fully open in 24 if things go right. Then they would give him the QO and get their own "lottery pick" when he declines. If the situation was reversed I would not expect the Braves, or anyone else to make a deal like this unless they are going into or are already in a rebuild. Even then there would be more as this is an undersell.
You and I have very different ideas on what Bieber would bring back in a trade. In another comment on another trade you mentioned that he should bring back multiple young controllable players. (https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/trades/trade-155185/) Create a trade that brings back multiple young controllable players that the Guardians could use that validates in this model. Keep in mind that this website gets it right 94% of the time. (https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/history/).
I don't know if the actual "difference" is that significant. I think we differ in what Cleveland is willing to accept in a Bieber deal. They're not looking to dump his salary because they aren't in a financial pinch like the were when they traded Lindor. They aren't in a rebuild so taking low level prospects does nothing for them. I explained to you the rationale behind the idea of Cleveland declining this proposal quickly, but I'll try to explain myself better. Bieber's on the field value for a possible contending team like Cleveland far outweighs this type of return. As I stated, instead of taking this deal and losing Bieber's on the field value they can keep that on the field value, make the QO and get the pick which is essentially the same as this return only a year later. I don't disagree that Bieber's excess value is 4.2. What I disagree with is the idea that Cleveland would deal him for next to nothing. The very least you could do is include some cash which would make his excess value a little more representative/realistic for Cleveland. So, back to the question I asked you that you didn't answer. What would be the point of making this deal from Cleveland's perspective? How does it fit with where they are as a team going into 2024? I've created several deals where Bieber is dealt for young players that can help in the present. They usually are expanded to include others as well as I don't think Bieber's value will garner that type of player by himself. You likely agree with that, but you need to understand that Cleveland isn't giving him away for a low level minor leaguer either. I hope I explained my take a little better and sorry for any confusion. Also, that 94% is mostly the smaller deals that are easy to predict. Show me the examples of deals that are similar to this one and I'd bet they aren't anywhere near 94% correct. That's not a knock on this site either because it does a damn good job of establishing excess values, but there are other factors too like market value and where teams are at in their competitive windows that are large factors.