Angels & Tigers & Cubs
Submitted by: greatjake
Angels
| Name | Age | Level | P1 | P2 | Availability | Years | AFV | Salary | Surplus | Low | Median | High |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Boyd | 28 | Majors | SP | Medium | 3 | 68.1 | 30.4 | 37.7 | 30.9 | 37.7 | 44.5 | |
| Ethan Hearn | Minors | C | 2.3 | 1.8 | 2.3 | 2.8 |
Total Value:
40
Tigers
| Name | Age | Level | P1 | P2 | Availability | Years | AFV | Salary | Surplus | Low | Median | High |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordyn Adams | Minors | OF | 8.4 | 6.7 | 8.4 | 10.1 | ||||||
| Brennen Davis | Minors | OF | 10.4 | 8.3 | 10.4 | 12.5 | ||||||
| Jeremiah Jackson | Minors | SS | 8.2 | 6.6 | 8.2 | 9.8 | ||||||
| Jose Suarez | 21 | Majors | SP | Medium | 6 | 16.6 | 5.6 | 11 | 9 | 11 | 13 |
Total Value:
38
Cubs
| Name | Age | Level | P1 | P2 | Availability | Years | AFV | Salary | Surplus | Low | Median | High |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Anderson | 26 | Majors | RHRP | Medium | 5 | 13 | 6.1 | 6.9 | 4.9 | 6.9 | 8.9 | |
| Noe Ramirez | 29 | Majors | RHRP | Medium | 4 | 9.4 | 4.5 | 4.9 | 4 | 4.9 | 5.8 |
Total Value:
11.8
Comments
4Let me start by saying that BTV must feel that Matt Boyd is a better pitcher than he's shown thus far. His peripherals don't suggest a TOR arm but his valuation here seems a bit overrated. The package I have the Halos giving up is steep but I suppose that's what it takes to get a young arm with upside. The Cubs are included because many of the LAA assets are major league level RP something the Tigers don't need and the Cubs desperately lack. AT the end of it all Detroit comes away with a trove of solid position player prospects, Chicago gets 2x young controlled pen arms that immediately contribute, and the Halos bolster their barren rotation.
NEWSLETTER? SURE, SIGN ME UP!
Just to address your question about Boyd's valuation: we're not in the "feel" business at BTV. We're synthesizing publicly available data that we've found to correlate well to trade value. More specifically, Boyd was a 3-WAR pitcher in 2019 by most systems we check, and he's projected for at least that in 2020. He's also been well above average in xWOBA for the past two years, and comes with three years of affordable control, so the surplus from that adds up.
Didn't mean to offend. I just don't see Boyd as a top of the rotation arm worth giving up the farm for. He's basically Robbie Ray light (with the added control you mentioned). Seeing what 1.5 years of Stroman (a proven 3 WAR arm) yielded a makes me think the Boyd market will be luke warm. Maybe I'm simply overvaluing LAA prospects. Thanks for the reply
No worries, all good. My personal impression is similar to yours. But I've learned to let the numbers tell the tale more.