Our model currently estimates Shohei Ohtani’s median trade value at $45.0M. Meanwhile, the media and fans alike are going wild, suggesting massive trade packages in exchange for the two-way star. So who’s correct? Is our model too low on Ohtani? We don’t think so. For starters, his $45.0M value is by far the largest we’ve ever seen for a rental. That tracks -- Ohtani is two star players in one, and one could argue there has never been a player of his magnitude in the...

The 2022-23 offseason was a relatively quiet one on the trade front. The biggest names to change teams were Sean Murphy, Daulton Varsho, Gabriel Moreno, Pablo Lopez and Luis Arraez - all excellent (and valuable) players, but sharing only a single All-Star Game appearance between them (Arraez, in 2022). And after those five, who appeared in three total trades, it was a large drop-off to the next biggest deal. Cole Irvin? Gregory Soto? Miguel Rojas? That’s due in no small part to an...

Earlier, John Bitzer broke down each of the major trades and free agent signings from the 2019 Winter Meetings. Now we'll take a look at how teams did in the final event of the meetings - the Rule 5 Draft. First, two caveats: we're sometimes playing catch-up with prospect values, as the outlets we use release their new rankings at various times; and we adjust Rule 5 eligible prospects down a notch to account for their inherit roster risk (since they need to remain on the MLB roster...

Center fielders don't seem to age well, especially those who derive a significant amount of their production from their gloves. And yet [baseball-trade-values-player-link player="8624"]is still a capable major league player for the Tampa Bay Rays. So are [baseball-trade-values-player-link player="7701"] and [baseball-trade-values-player-link player="9143"] of the Colorado Rockies and Los Angeles Dodgers, respectively. So why do they have negative trade values? First, it's...

Earlier this week, John Bitzer broke down each of the major trades and free agent signings from the 2019 Winter Meetings. Today, we'll take a look at how teams did in the final event of the meetings - the Rule 5 Draft. We know our work here at BTV isn't an exact science, but the Rule 5 Draft is a completely different animal. We adjust Rule 5 eligible prospects down a notch to account for their inherit roster risk (since they need to remain on the MLB roster all season), but Rule 5...