Every year around this time, we comb through our numbers and see which players on each team may be non-tender candidates (that is, players who won’t be offered contracts for next season). We do this largely by scanning our model for players with zero surplus value.  Sometimes this is the result of poor performance; in other cases, it’s that the value of the player’s projected performance is less than what he’s estimated to earn in salary – in other words,...

Editor's update: Back in October, we published a list of players who we thought were good candidates to be either non-tendered, DFA'd, or have their options declined. Now that the non-tender deadline has passed, how does that list look? At first glance, we got a lot right. We nailed the Twins' two non-tenders (Cron and Hildenberger), and were right on significant decisions by the A's (Profar, Phegley, Buchter), Mariners (Domingo Santana, Ryon Healy, Keon Broxton, Tim Beckham), Astros (Aaron...