The 2016 deadline trade of Aroldis Chapman is considered by many to be one of the most lopsided overpays in history. But was it? In this latest installment of our series on historic trades, we explore what they might have looked like using the model we have today. Note: Since this site (and our model) didn’t exist when these trades occurred, we may not have access to all the data we currently use, so some of the inputs are not as accurate as they would be today. But let’s try it...

In the second edition of our podcast series, BTV editors John Bitzer and Joshua Iversen address the rumors about a potential Wil Myers deal to the Red Sox, and what it might look like; highlight our featured trade of the week, which includes a Kris Bryant move; and break down three of the most significant trades so far this offseason. Listen to the episode here in the player, click the link below to download or find it on your favorite podcast provider! Any questions or comments? Email us at...

How is our model doing vs. real-life trades? As of January 31: Total trades: 39 Total trades accepted by our model: 33 Acceptance rate: 84.6% Variance: +/- 4.0 While we think that’s pretty good, we actually think the model is doing even better. That’s because the publicly available sources we rely on for data -- both for projections and prospect ratings -- release their updates sporadically throughout the offseason. Sometimes real-life trades occur before our model has been...

It’s mid-January; time to take stock. How is our model doing vs. real life?   As of January 18: Total trades: 36 Total trades accepted by our model: 30 Acceptance rate: 83.3% Variance: +/- 4.2 Basically, the model has been right five out of every six trades, and overall the numbers have held up reasonably. As a reminder, we keep a running tally of all trades, log each one individually on our site, and keep score via these tracker updates, so you can see how the model is faring...

If you’re a GM, this is the list you don’t want to have your players on. According to our calculations, the following 50 players have the least amount of trade value right now – or, put another way, the most amount of negative value. These are not necessarily bad players; they’re players whose contracts are bigger than their projected field value. Not surprisingly, the common thread here is that most of them are older and past their prime. Only eight of these 50...