As most of you know, there’s a possibility that the 2027 MLB season will be impacted by a lockout, due to the expiration of the current Collective Bargaining Agreement between the owners and players. The impact may be zero (in which the season would be saved, as in 2022), or minimal, moderate, or even major (where the entire season could get wiped out). We here at BTV cannot possibly fathom a guess, and based on an early read of the market, front offices don’t really know either.

But what we can do is project which trade candidates would be most affected by any sort of work stoppage.

 

The clear answer: players who become free agents after 2027 (i.e., those with about 1.5 years of control at this year’s deadline). Why? Because most of their value is tied to 2027. This year’s rentals will be unaffected. Players with longer time horizons will be minimally impacted at best, assuming 2028 and beyond go off without a hitch. 

Things should normalize after whatever happens in 2027 – with one caveat: we don’t know the terms of the next CBA, and how any change might affect salaries or years of control. But front offices don’t know either, so we’re all in the same boat. For now, then, we’ll use the same models as before, and update them later if and when things change.

 

Effect on trade candidates

What this means in practical terms is that the players most likely to be affected are those with roughly 1.5 years of control this summer could take a hit to their estimated values. 

On the buyers’ side: Teams who might be interested in guys with 1.5 years of control could adjust their bids down a bit, given the uncertainty of 2027. They may not want to pay a premium in trade capital (and/or monetary capital, if they take on a big contract) if they’re not sure they’re getting that player’s services for next year in full. So they may undershoot, to stay in their comfort zone. If 2027 ends up being a normal year, they’ll get a bargain; if it’s wiped out, they’ll have overpaid. So they may hedge a bit and split the difference.

On the sellers’ side: Teams who might want to trade guys with dwindling control may have to adjust their asking prices down, for the same reasons as above. If 2027 turns out normal, they will have left value on the table; if it’s wiped out, they will have dodged a bullet. So they too would need to split the difference.

 

Pool of possible trade candidates affected:

We haven’t yet applied the above estimates to our model, as it’s too early to get a read on the situation. But if nothing changes, the following notable players might be the most affected. 

We’ve categorized these players based on:

--whether they play for a team that might be a seller at this year’s deadline (based on current playoff odds at Fangraphs)

--whether they’re still in the (relative) prime years of their career (to guard against, say, a guy in his late ‘30s who might not be worth the gamble in 2027)

--whether they project to have some impact on the field next year

 

 Position Players:

Player	On a possible seller?	Prime age?	Impact?
Jo Adell	Yes	Yes	Some
Luis Garcia, Jr.	Yes	Yes	Some
Steven Kwan	No	Yes	Some
Trevor Larnach	Yes	Yes	Some
Mickey Moniak	Yes	Yes	Some
Lars Nootbaar	Yes	Yes	Some
Isaac Paredes	Yes	Yes	Yes
Jeremy Pena	Yes	Yes	Yes
Christian Walker	Yes	No	Some

 

 Pitchers:

Player	On a possible seller?	Prime age?	Impact?
Sandy Alcantara	Yes	Yes	Yes
Cristian Javier	Yes	Yes	Some
Bailey Ober	Yes	Yes	Some
Joe Ryan	Yes	Yes	Yes

 

There are plenty more – these are just the most notable.

 

Now, we know a few other things:

--Every contender needs pitching help at the deadline, which means an impact starter like, say, Sandy Alcantara, might still require fair value or above in a deal as he would in any other year. But a guy like Bailey Ober probably wouldn’t. Impact on the field is always in short supply and high demand. So we’ll factor that in as well.

--Position players who are not superstars, meanwhile, like Isaac Paredes or Steven Kwan, may not break the bank – we can assume the possible lockout of 2027 may impact those types. But their teams might also gamble on holding them until things resolve next year, if they don’t want to undersell.

--Jeremy Pena may be an outlier here – the Astros should try to extend him, but if they don’t, he figures to have enormous appeal on the market either this year or next (if there is a next) year.

--Notably, there isn’t a lot of star quality on this list – which might make this whole exercise moot. Some team may overpay for Alcantara, but otherwise, they may shrug and punt, and see where things are at the deadline in 2027, as all these guys will be rentals then.

 

Conclusion

In any case, this is an unusual situation with a high degree of uncertainty – there are known unknowns and unknown unknowns, so planning is tricky, with many variables. 

Bottom line: for this year’s deadline, teams will act normally for rentals, and mostly normally for longer-term guys. But for those with a year and a half left of control, we suspect there will be a small but perhaps noticeable impact. But we won’t be sure until we see actual deals.