Welcome to the 2024-25 Offseason Roundup. Any additional trades will be added to this article as they are reported.

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Los Angeles Dodgers acquire international bonus pool space ($1.5M) from the Cincinnati Reds in exchange for OF Arnaldo Lantigua ($0.5M)
Los Angeles Dodgers acquire international bonus pool space ($0.75M) from the Philadelphia Phillies in exchange for OF Dylan Campbell ($0.5M)

The Dodgers made a pair of moves to boost their international bonus pool and allow them to hand Roki Sasaki a $6.5M bonus. In both cases, they shipped off fringe minor league outfield prospects for the privilege of expanding their pool.

These deals also serve to showcase the difficulty in valuing bonus pool space, explained further below.

Toronto Blue Jays acquire OF Myles Straw (-$9.3M), cash ($3.75M) and international bonus pool space ($2.0M) from the Cleveland Guardians in exchange for cash or a PTBNL.

This move only makes sense in the context of Toronto’s aggressive pursuit of top international free agent Roki Sasaki. We now know the Jays fell short, with Sasaki joining the Dodgers instead, and we can easily evaluate this trade as a bad one for Toronto.

Straw doesn’t look like a big leaguer. He runs the bases well and plays excellent outfield defense, but the bat just isn’t enough to keep him much higher than replacement level. He’s owed $14.75M over the next two years (including a club option buyout for 2027), of which Toronto is on the hook for $11M. That’s almost fully underwater, and now that Sasaki has signed elsewhere, the international bonus pool space doesn’t justify the cost.

It’s worth noting that, especially in the context of Sasaki, international bonus pool space is difficult to value. It isn’t the same as normal cash; instead, teams trade and acquire the privilege to spend a certain amount of money in a specific way. The international market is highly volatile and there isn’t a clear way to assess how an international dollar is valued. So, for the time being, we are valuing it the same as normal cash, with the disclaimer that we know it is valued differently by the market.

The deal was accepted by our model as a minor overpay by Toronto.

Cincinnati Reds acquire 2B Gavin Lux ($13.6M) from the Los Angeles Dodgers in exchange for OF Mike Sirota ($1.9M) and a Comp A draft pick ($4.1M)

After signing left-handed hitting Korean infielder Hyeseong Kim, Los Angeles was facing a middle infield logjam, and Lux appeared the obvious odd man out. The former top prospect’s defensive issues have been well-documented, and his bat, while adequate, hasn’t been enough for him to live up to his pedigree.

Still, he’s a quality player, and at 27 maybe there’s more left in the tank. Cincinnati will take a chance to find out if he can succeed in a more hitter-friendly ballpark outside of the Los Angeles spotlight. He’s a curious fit for the roster, as the team’s infield logjam led it to trade second baseman Jonathan India to Kansas City earlier in the offseason. But reportedly, the Reds plan to use Lux in a super-utility role. They’ll find out in spring training which positions he’s capable of holding down. He has two years of arbitration remaining.

The return here looks light, though the Kim signing backed the Dodgers into a corner and likely cost them some leverage. The Comp A pick is a nice pickup for an organization that has historically drafted quite well, and Sirota has some fans, so perhaps the former 3rd-rounder will see his stock rise after joining the Los Angeles system.

The deal was accepted by our model as a major underpay by Cincinnati.

Pittsburgh Pirates acquire RHP Chase Shugart ($0.2M) from the Boston Red Sox in exchange for RHP Matt McShane (not yet in system)
Minnesota Twins acquire C Diego Cartaya ($2.6M) from the Los Angeles Dodgers in exchange for RHP Jose Vasquez (not yet in system)
Arizona Diamondbacks acquire IF Grae Kessinger ($0.2M) from the Houston Astros in exchange for RHP Matthew Linskey (not yet in system)
Milwaukee Brewers acquire RHP Grant Anderson ($0.6M) from the Texas Rangers in exchange for LHP Mason Molina (not yet in system)
Chicago White Sox acquire LHP Tyler Gilbert ($0.0M) from the Philadelphia Phillies in exchange for RHP Aaron Combs ($0.0M)
Miami Marlins acquire 1B Matt Mervis ($0.4M) from the Chicago Cubs in exchange for UT Vidal Brujan ($0.0M)
Minnesota Twins acquire C/1B Mickey Gasper ($0.8M) from the Boston Red Sox in exchange for LHP Jovani Moran ($2.0M)

Another slew of minor DFA trades. A few players of note here: Moran was a quality lefty reliever, but didn’t pitch last year as he recovered from Tommy John Surgery. Mervis and Bruján are a pair of former top prospects looking for a change of scenery, especially as the former is on his last option year and the latter has none remaining. Cartaya was once a top prospect for the Dodgers, but his stock has fallen considerably as he’s risen through the minor leagues, and at only 23 he’s on his last minor league option. He’s a player the Dodgers might have preferred to keep, but he fell victim to their ongoing 40-man roster crunch.

Washington Nationals acquire 1B Nathaniel Lowe ($7.8M) from the Texas Rangers in exchange for LHP Robert Garcia ($16.9M)

This confusing deal is similar to the Fernando Cruz trade, as in both cases a controllable reliever was dealt seemingly below market value. Garcia doesn’t boast the same superlative strikeout rates as Cruz, but owns similarly strong peripherals, and the lefty looks like a great medium-leverage arm at worst. At 28, his five years of control are quite valuable, and he looks like a great addition for a Rangers bullpen that lost multiple veteran arms to free agency this offseason.

Even more curious is Washington’s motivation. Garcia was the best reliever in what now looks like one of the worst bullpens in the league. Meanwhile, Lowe is a fine player, but as a quality first baseman lacking the power typically present at the position, he doesn’t look like a difference-maker. It also isn’t clear whether the Nationals will be competitive during Lowe’s remaining two years of arbitration, which won’t be cheap (somewhere in the neighborhood of $25-30M combined, given his status as a Super 2 player with four total years of arb). Maybe the Nationals have further bullpen additions in the works, and maybe they’re more optimistic about their competitive timeline, but this looks like a mistake from here.

The deal was rejected by our model as an overpay by Washington.

Philadelphia Phillies acquire LHP Jesús Luzardo ($21.9M) and C Paul McIntosh ($0.8M) from the Miami Marlins in exchange for SS Starlyn Caba ($22.2M) and OF Emaarion Boyd ($0.9M)

A year ago, Luzardo was coveted as one of the most attractive trade candidates on a crumbling Marlins roster (and weak starting pitching market). Miami stood pat, and it didn’t work out; Luzardo’s disappointing and injury-ridden 2024 decreased his trade value substantially.

Still, he’s an upside play with two years of arbitration remaining, and thus retained enough value to net the Marlins a top 100 prospect in Caba. The 19-year-old doesn’t have much thump, but boasts one of the best gloves in the minor leagues, and scouts love his contact abilities. Both he and Boyd, a speedy bench outfielder type, are likely a few years from their MLB debuts.

For the Phillies, Luzardo bumps Taijuan Walker to the bullpen and makes their strong rotation even stronger. He’s also insurance in case they lose Ranger Suárez to free agency following the season. Adding such a high-upside arm without sacrificing top prospects Andrew Painter or Aidan Miller is a clear win for Dave Dombrowski’s team.

Atlanta Braves acquire RHP Davis Daniel ($1.7M) from the Los Angeles Angels in exchange for LHP Mitch Farris ($0.4M)
Chicago White Sox acquire LHP Cam Booser ($0.0M) from the Boston Red Sox in exchange for RHP Yhoiker Fajardo (not yet in system)

A pair of fringe trades, as both Booser and Daniel had been DFA’d prior to these deals. Booser, at least, is a nice story, having reached the big leagues last season at age 32 after contemplating retirement.

Arizona Diamondbacks acquire 1B Josh Naylor ($7.8M) from the Cleveland Guardians in exchange for RHP Slade Cecconi ($7.5M) and a Comp B draft pick ($2.1M)

After losing Christian Walker to Houston, the Diamondbacks were left with a gaping hole at first base. Naylor should fill it well, as the 27-year-old has quietly developed into a consistent slugger. He won’t offer the same Gold Glove caliber-defense as Walker, but the offensive production should be similar. He’ll earn $10.9M in his final year of arbitration before hitting free agency.

Cecconi joins the stock of arms that Cleveland added from Pittsburgh in the Spencer Horwitz trade, as the next wave of young reinforcements on which the Guardians pitching development can work its magic. He’s a former first-round pick (Comp A) who hasn’t quite clicked, but still looks promising. The Guardians also add a Comp B pick in the deal, always a nice bonus. 

New York Yankees acquire RHP Fernando Cruz ($10.7M*) and C Alex Jackson ($0.7M) from the Cincinnati Reds in exchange for C Jose Trevino ($5.2M)

This is a head-scratcher for the Reds. Trevino is fine - though his 4-win 2022 season was clearly a fluke, he brings enough to the table on both sides of the ball to be a quality major league catcher. He’ll be a luxury backup to Tyler Stephenson, who quietly put together a career year in 2024.

But Trevino is a rental, earning $3.4M in his final year of arbitration. Cruz, meanwhile, has four years of team control, beginning at the league minimum in 2025. Despite posting ERAs near 5 each of the last two seasons, Cruz generates strikeouts at an elite rate, and his peripherals paint a much prettier picture. He’s 34, and perhaps he never prevents runs at quite the rate his FIP would suggest, but he looks like an obvious breakout candidate and could very easily be a solid, affordable late-inning reliever for New York. That should be worth more than a year of a back-up catcher.

The deal was accepted by our model as a major overpay by Cincinnati.

*Originally, we had incorrectly modeled Cruz at 5 years of team control, increasing his surplus value to $15.6M and making the trade a rejection by our standards. This was not because Cruz’s fifth year, his age-39 season, was valued highly at all. Instead, the additional year pushed his arbitration schedule out one season, giving him another league minimum season in 2026 when his field value is near its peak.

New York Yankees acquire OF/1B Cody Bellinger (-$6.4M) and cash ($5.0M) from the Chicago Cubs in exchange for RHP Cody Poteet ($0.9M)

After missing out on both Juan Soto and Kyle Tucker, the reigning AL Champion Yankees needed to pivot to another left-handed outfield bat. Bellinger always made the most sense and this deal was rumored for weeks, the only question being how much of his contract the Cubs would need to eat.

It was clear Bellinger was underwater - otherwise, he would have opted out of his deal and hit the free agent market expecting to earn more. He’s owed $52.5M over the next two seasons, and while he certainly has the upside to be worth that money and more, he’s been remarkably inconsistent throughout his career and projects as more of a 2-3 WAR player than the superstar he once was. Still, he’s an upgrade to what was a top-heavy Yankees offense, and provides a more traditional center field fit for New York.

The $5M cash brings Bellinger’s deal close to even, with the Cubs acquiring a depth arm, Poteet, in exchange. The biggest benefit of the deal for Chicago is cost savings, which they will aim to reallocate to further bullpen additions.

The deal was accepted by our model as a minor overpay by New York.

Pittsburgh Pirates acquire IF Enmanuel Valdez ($0.8M) from the Boston Red Sox in exchange for RHP Joe Vogatsky (not yet in system)

Originally acquired from Houston in the Christian Vázquez trade, Valdez is a depth utility man who hasn’t hit in the big leagues yet. He was DFA’d by Boston prior to this trade. Vogatsky was Pittsburgh’s 19th-round pick in 2024 and hasn’t made his pro debut yet, or appeared as a notable player on any prospect lists.

Athletics acquire LHPs Jeffrey Springs ($9.6M) and Jacob Lopez ($0.8M) from the Tampa Bay Rays in exchange for RHPs Joe Boyle ($8.0M) and Jacob Watters ($0.7M), 1B Will Simpson ($2.2M) and a Comp A draft pick ($4.1M)

In their attempts to avoid a grievance from the MLBPA, the penny-pinching Athletics spent the offseason looking for opportunities to spend, starting with a clear overpay for starting pitcher Luis Severino. Such an overpay was necessary to convince a free agent to spend their next few years in a minor league ballpark in Sacramento, making the trade market a much more attractive avenue for upgrades.

Springs broke out in 2022, his first full season as a starter, and the Rays rewarded him with a contract extension. But he spent most of the last two seasons recovering from Tommy John Surgery, and now that he’s into the expensive years of the deal and Tampa Bay has a surplus of starters, it made sense to move him. He projects as a back-end starter at worst, and has two additional years of team control at $10.5M each (plus a $15M club option for 2027), though his innings total will likely be limited in 2025. The A’s also add Lopez, a depth lefty reliever with an option remaining.

In exchange, the Rays take on a true lottery ticket in Boyle, who possesses some of the best pure stuff in baseball but has no idea where the ball is going. The Reds and A’s were unable to reign him in, but if anyone can, it’s Tampa Bay. He could have substantial value even as a multi-inning reliever. Watters is a fringe arm, but maybe the Rays see something more, and Simpson is a defensively limited slugger who has hit at every level of the minors. The comp pick is a nice addition as well (and, to the cynics, presents a way for John Fisher’s A’s to save bonus pool money while taking on payroll to appease critics).

This deal was accepted by our model, albeit as a major overpay by the Athletics.

Chicago Cubs acquire OF Kyle Tucker ($31.4M) from the Houston Astros in exchange for 3B/1B Isaac Paredes ($28.8M), IF Cam Smith ($17.5M) and RHP Hayden Wesneski ($6.4M)

The Astros found themselves at a crossroads this offseason, with an aging core, deteriorating farm and significant questions regarding their ability to retain their stars. In this one move, Houston provided clarity on all three fronts, but also raised new questions about the quality of the remaining team.

Tucker is a superstar. Despite losing half the season to injury, he posted 4.2 fWAR in 2024, walking more than he struck out and slugging 23 home runs in only 78 games. He'll earn $16.5M in his final year of arbitration and is in line for a huge payday in free agency next offseason. He’ll be a massive addition for a Cubs offense that suddenly looks pretty deep, and perhaps they’ll finally open up the checkbook and attempt to keep him in town.

The Astros were reportedly interested in Paredes last trade deadline, but didn’t line up well with the Rays. Now, they finally bring him to a Houston ballpark where his pull-heavy approach will be a perfect fit. He struggled in Chicago (and likely won’t be missed there), but he has three years of arbitration remaining and has established himself as a solid major league hitter, despite unimpressive batted ball data.

Smith immediately becomes Houston’s best or second-best prospect, depending on your evaluation of Jacob Melton. The system needs a lot more work, but he at least provides some amount of optimism for the future. Wesneski is a change of scenery candidate, a possible starter in early 2025 while some of the Astros’ primary arms return from injuries, but a likely swingman or reliever in the long term.

On paper, Houston received a very strong return for Tucker, even if it’s not one that was particularly painful for the Cubs to lose. But there’s a larger question about the Astros’ outlook here. They are a worse team for 2024 without Tucker, and adding Paredes was the first concrete indicator that the club would be moving on from Alex Bregman as well. There is still talent on the roster, and the AL West isn’t looking like a particularly strong division, but this doesn’t look like the powerhouse Astros of recent years, and their path only becomes more murky in the years to come.

This deal was rejected by our model as an overpay by Chicago.

New York Yankees acquire RHP Devin Williams ($8.7M) from the Milwaukee Brewers in exchange for LHP Nestor Cortes ($10.5M), 2B Caleb Durbin ($1.4M) and cash ($2.0M)

After failing to retain Juan Soto, the Yankees pivoted to aggressive moves elsewhere on their roster, starting with a trade for one of the best closers in baseball in Williams. His value is limited as a reliever in his final year of arbitration - not to mention his recent injury concerns - but he’s an incredibly effective pitcher and makes the Yankees bullpen formidable.

By our values, the cost looks a bit high. Cortes is also in his final year of team control at a similar salary to Williams, and though he isn’t as impressive relative to his peers, he’s a quality starter and will provide value over a significantly higher volume of innings. Durbin has his fans after setting the Arizona Fall League on fire, but prospect evaluators are much more comfortable seeing him as a utility man.

It’s possible there was a prospect package that would have lined up better from a value perspective, but that doesn’t mean it would have made the most sense for either of these teams. The Brewers are contenders in need of rotation help, and Cortes was the odd man out in New York after the Max Fried signing. This deal just makes sense, and the Yankees weren’t about to let Durbin or a couple million dollars come between them and Williams.

This deal was accepted by our model as a major overpay by New York. 

Boston Red Sox acquire LHP Garrett Crochet ($53.4M) from the Chicago White Sox in exchange for C Kyle Teel ($32.0M), OF Brandon Montgomery ($15.2M), IF Chase Meidroth ($6.6M) and RHP Wikelman Gonzalez ($2.8M)

Crochet was one of the most coveted arms at the trade deadline, but concerns about his availability in October (given his career-high innings total) made a deal too difficult to complete. Fast forward to the offseason, and Chicago found a solid offer and pulled the trigger.

There is a lot for Boston to like about Crochet. He was fantastic in 2024, especially before he started to run out of gas late in the year. He’s only 25, and given his injury-ridden start to his career, his arbitration projections for his final two years of team control are much lower than one would expect from his 2024 performance. That makes him a prime candidate for a below-market extension, and the Red Sox are still likely working to get one done.

But there’s also a chance 2024 was a mirage; Crochet has never sustained that level of success in his career. He’s had plenty of arm issues throughout his career and nearly tripled his career-high in innings pitched last season. Maybe he’s ready for another step forward, but it’s certainly possible that workload will prove too heavy.

Boston didn’t part with any of its best prospects, but that doesn’t mean Chicago received a weak return. Teel looks like a solid all-around catcher, with strong enough defense to remain behind the plate and competent enough offense to remain in the lineup every day. He should make his MLB debut in 2025. Montgomery was Boston’s first-round pick in 2024 and hasn’t made his pro debut yet, but has significant upside as a switch-hitter with power. Meidroth is the opposite, a likely utility infielder with a great eye but a light bat, while Gonzalez will be more of a project given his big stuff and poor command.

The White Sox are still multiple years away, but their rebuild continues to progress. Outside of the head-scratching Erick Fedde deal, our model has liked the returns they’ve received in their major trades, and what was once a weak system now ranks third in baseball by our values.

Texas Rangers acquire IF Jake Burger ($11.0M) from the Miami Marlins in exchange for IFs Echedry Vargas ($7.3M) and Max Acosta ($2.4M) and LHP Brayan Mendoza (not yet in system)

The reigning World Series champions entered 2024 with what looked like one of the deepest lineups in baseball, but it severely underperformed, contributing to the team’s playoff miss. Burger isn’t a solution on his own, but adds consistent right-handed thump that the team was sorely missing last season. This deal also gave the Rangers the flexibility to deal first baseman Nathaniel Lowe for relief help later in the winter.

The Marlins received a nice prospect package in exchange. Vargas posted a solid stat line in Single-A last season, and though there are concerns about his swing-and-miss and whether he can stick at shortstop, he looks like a solid hitter and is still just 19. Acosta was a top international prospect whose stock initially dropped, but has started to rebound after a strong 2024 between Double-A and the Arizona Fall League. Mendoza doesn’t throw hard, but looks like a possible back-end starter or swingman.

Mendoza wasn’t in the system at the time of the trade, but has since been added at $0.7M, and with his addition the deal was accepted by our model.

Pittsburgh Pirates acquire IF Spencer Horwitz ($28.0M) from the Cleveland Guardians in exchange for RHP Luis Ortiz ($13.6M) and LHPs Michael Kennedy ($2.3M) and Josh Hartle ($2.3M)

Given their glut of 1B/DH types, it wasn’t too surprising to see the Guardians immediately flip Horwitz in exchange for young arms. Cleveland develops pitching as well as anyone, and while Ortiz is clearly the biggest name (and will likely provide the most 2025 impact), don’t sleep on Kennedy and Hartle; they’re exactly the type of unheralded arms that the Guardians continually turn into mid-rotation starters.

The Pirates are hoping Horwitz (more on him below) will provide stability to a first base position that has been something of a revolving door since Josh Bell left town. They already have a strong crop of young arms, headlined by Paul Skenes and Jared Jones, and continue to look for offensive consistency to support them.

This deal was accepted by our model as a major underpay by the Pirates.

Toronto Blue Jays acquire IF Andrés Giménez (-$33.6M) and RHP Nick Sandlin (-$1.6M) from the Cleveland Guardians in exchange for IF Spencer Horwitz ($28.0M) and OF Nick Mitchell (not yet in system)

What’s going on in Canada?? Giménez was fantastic in 2022, playing his 141 wRC+ and 6.1 fWAR season into a hefty contract extension. But he followed that with two seasons of below average offensive production, while playing superb defense at one of the least valuable defensive positions, second base. He’s still been a valuable player, but at least according to our model, doesn’t project to be worth the $96.5M he’s owed over the next five seasons.

Age is on Giménez’s side, as he just turned 26. And the Blue Jays may be viewing him as insurance at shortstop in case Bo Bichette leaves town. But there’s no guarantee he’ll be a plus defensive shortstop, making it very difficult to see his contract as anything other than underwater.

Meanwhile, the model may be a bit hot on Horwitz, but there’s clearly something to like. He’s actually older than Giménez, but comes with five cheap years of team control and looks like a very solid hitter. He may ultimately be 1B/DH only, and doesn’t have the raw power typically associated with that profile, but he looks like he’ll be a positive offensive contributor for the next few years at a very cheap salary, giving him considerable surplus.

This deal was rejected by our model as an overpay by Toronto.

Kansas City Royals acquire 2B Jonathan India ($15.3M) and OF Joey Wiemer ($3.7M) from the Cincinnati Reds in exchange for RHP Brady Singer ($16.8M)

This deal spent a couple weeks on the rumor mill before finally coming to fruition. At first glance, it’s a perfect fit - the Royals deal from their rotation surplus to add much-needed infield help, and vice versa for the Reds. Singer and India each have two years of arbitration remaining at similar projected salaries.

But some have questioned the ballpark fit for both players. Can India drive the ball out of Kauffman Stadium? Can Singer keep the ball inside of Great American Ball Park? Time will tell. As it stands, this looks like a very fair deal from a value perspective, with Wiemer’s inclusion tipping the scales just slightly; the former top prospect has a great glove and mashes left-handed pitching, leaving reason to believe he may have a big league future.

This deal was accepted by our model as a minor overpay by Cincinnati.

Chicago Cubs acquire RHP Eli Morgan ($0.0M) from the Cleveland Guardians in exchange for OF Alfonsin Rosario ($0.9M)

Morgan had a sub-two ERA in 2024, but his peripherals throughout his career have him as much closer to a replacement-level reliever. Still, he’s a fine low-leverage arm entering his first year of arbitration. Rosario has big power but strikes out too often, and hasn’t established himself as a notable prospect quite yet.

New York Mets acquire OF Jose Siri ($6.6M) from the Tampa Bay Rays in exchange for RHP Eric Orze ($2.1M)

As he enters his arbitration years, Siri is the type of luxury the Rays typically can’t afford (or, at least, choose not to). He’s a plus defensive outfielder, but his swing-and-miss makes him an inconsistent hitter, and he makes a lot more sense as a plus fourth outfielder on the high-budget Mets than a lower division starter on the penny-pinching Rays. He’s also out of options, making him a DFA risk if his bat doesn’t show up.

Orze is a 27-year-old reliever with big strikeout rates in the minors. He made his MLB debut in 2024 and is exactly the type of arm the Rays have had success turning into late-inning firepower.

This deal was accepted by our model as a moderate underpay by New York.

Atlanta Braves acquire UT Nick Allen ($0.0M) from the Athletics in exchange for RHP Jared Johnson ($0.5M)

Allen has a great glove, but he’s gotten his bat knocked out of his hands in the big leagues. He’s also out of options. Johnson is a 23-year-old relief prospect with shaky command.

Los Angeles Angels acquire DH Jorge Soler (-$13.2M) from the Atlanta Braves in exchange for RHP Griffin Canning ($1.9M)

The Angels kicked off the offseason with a few aggressive (and somewhat questionable) moves, including this deal for Soler. He should really be a DH-only at this point in his career, and that’s a role one would expect Mike Trout to step into at least occasionally to try and keep himself healthy.

Beyond the curious positional fit, Soler’s contract also pays him more than he’s projected to be worth on the field, at least according to our model. He’s owed $26M over the next two seasons and projects to be about a 1.5-WAR player in 2025. Even if you think the DH penalty is too harsh, it’s still hard to see positive surplus value here, and it’s strange that he’s been traded twice in the last handful of months without any money changing hands.

Canning was interesting at one point in his career, but he’s been replacement level two of the last three seasons, and the Braves ended up non-tendering him, making this deal a pure salary dump on their part.

This one was rejected by our model as an overpay by Los Angeles - though it’s worth noting that as of the time of writing, Soler’s surplus has increased to -$5.5M (thanks to tweaks to the model as well as favorable projections being released later in the offseason).