Brewers & Twins
Submitted by: Spikes
Brewers
| Name | Age | Level | P1 | P2 | Availability | Years | AFV | Salary | Surplus | Low | Median | High |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luis Arraez | 25 | Majors | 2B | OF | Medium | 3 | 43.4 | 23.8 | 19.7 | 15.8 | 19.7 | 23.6 |
| Alex Kirilloff | 24 | Majors | OF | 1B | Very low | 5 | 3 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.9 |
| Bailey Ober | 26 | Majors | SP | RHRP | Medium | 5 | 26.1 | 6.6 | 19.5 | 15.6 | 19.5 | 23.3 |
Total Value:
39.9
Twins
| Name | Age | Level | P1 | P2 | Availability | Years | AFV | Salary | Surplus | Low | Median | High |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hunter Renfroe | 30 | Majors | OF | Medium | 1 | 11 | 11.2 | -0.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Brandon Woodruff | 29 | Majors | SP | Very low | 2 | 65.3 | 27.5 | 37.8 | 30.3 | 37.8 | 45.4 |
Total Value:
37.8
Comments
6I don't think the Brewers would want anything to do with Kiriloff. Renfroe was their best hitter last year, so I doubt they would be eager just to throw him away in this deal. Milwaukee would have to be convinced that Ober CAN fill a rotation spot and not just compete for one. Otherwise this trade would weaken them as much as it helps.
I'd like to add one more comment. I added Renfroe to the trade because I don't think the Twins would approve the trade of Arraez and Ober for Woodruff. The Brewers asked for Kirilloff because he had a decent 1st half. But Weitz50 suggested Urshela and that's a much better fit for Milwaukee. I'm not sure if other players would also need to be involved but I think this is the type of package that the Brewers would like in a Woodruff trade.
Brewers receive Arraez who will make an ideal lead off or number 2 hitter. He can play 1B, 2B or LF. Brewers also get a young starter who will compete for a rotation spot. According to MLBTR, Twins are looking for a top of the rotation pitcher but probably will not go more than 3 years which would probably rule out the top free agent starters. In this trade they get a number 1 pitcher at a reasonable and fair salary. MLBTR also mentioned that the Twins would like to improve their outfield. I included Renfroe for Kiriloff as an add-on but it does not need to be part of this trade. If the Twins feel that Renfroe would be a good option for them next year, then I think the Brewers would do this swap. I realize the Brewers have good prospects in AAA to probably play in Milwaukee next year. However, Kiriloff can also play 1B, and I think it's unreasonable to think every prospect is going to have good rookie years. Kiriloff would add depth at 2 positions. I think the Twins would want Renfroe with his 2.7 WAR and 29 home runs and the Brewers may wish to save the projected $11M to use towards a catcher or a third baseman or more pitching. If the Twins don't want to trade Kiriloff for Renfroe than that's okay and the trade still could be make without those 2 players.
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Switch Urshela for Kirilloff, plus some money ($5-$8 mil) and a lottery ticket or two from the Twins side and I could see it happening. Fits both their needs then. The years of control are a little closer then also. Brewers drop 20-30 mil in payroll. So they can try to extend Burns. Twins get a top end starter and a RH OF. Would also make it easier to move Kepler to even out their payroll for the Twins. Also Kirilloff is damaged goods. No way of knowing if he's going to be the 2019 prospect or done playing proball after two wrist surgeries in the last two seasons.
I like it. Thanks for your comment.
I agree that the Brewers would have to be convinced that Ober could fill a rotation spot. My only knowledge of him is his stats and they are favorable. (In reply to Jmont)